**** Elections thread *****

[spoonitnow]

it's almost as if you should know better than to look only at one outlier pollster while ignoring the several established ones that tell a different story.

Every single recent poll has Trump kicking the dog shit out of Carson yet again.

The Bush supporters who jumped to Fiorina and then to Carson are jumping to Cruz, and Trump is going to 187 his retarded 5'8" Canadian ass too. He's killing them all one-by-one, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

[wufwugy]

they show no such thing. they show that trump's support hasnt changed just like has always been the case; and that trump does well in new hampshire while carson doesn't, as has always been the case; and that people are moving to rubio and cruz, likely from carson and bush, which was predicted.

[wufwugy]

check out ur boi in colorado. he's behind rubio! what a chump! this is very, very bad for trump. the worst. he's done, finished. i know many people, big people, smart people, they tell me trump is in freefall.

[spoonitnow]

check out ur boi in colorado. he's behind rubio! what a chump! this is very, very bad for trump. the worst. he's done, finished. i know many people, big people, smart people, they tell me trump is in freefall.

You can tell a lot about a man by who his enemies are, and if the pothead dipshits from Colorado are against Trump, that just means he's winning the election.

[wufwugy]

i lold. your trolling isnt the worst in the world

[wufwugy]

it's possible that surveymonkey is the best pollster out there right now (it got the uk results very right). it has trump in the same range he has been forever (mid-high twenties" and carson losing support while rubio and mainly cruz gain. this makes total sense given political wisdom, too.

[spoonitnow]

Cruz is the Canadian Mr. Bean.

[a500lbgorilla]

Cruz is the cleverest mfer in the Rs today.

[spoonitnow]

Yeah he's going to be real clever when Trump busts his ass like he's done everyone else who has tried to challenge him.

[a500lbgorilla]

Cruz has a tomorrow. Enjoy 2017.

[wufwugy]

cruz has a what tomorrow?

[a500lbgorilla]

cruz has a what tomorrow?

A political tomorrow.

Trump is my boy. But he's not cut for this game like Hillary is. By 2017, Cruz is still gonna ride his and Trump's wave, while Trump'll be off doing "Great" things.

[wufwugy]

what i find funny is all the donks who criticize the gop candidates' tax plans. right, because it's so wrong for the government to take less money from people. if a guy buys a house then goes under and knocks on your door and tells you that you need to pay his mortgage, you tell him to gtfo. but apparently when it's the government, when you acknowledge that the government debt and deficit are an analogous scenario, you're not being serious.

god has got nothing on the god that is government.

[boost]

I've been avoiding the Carson/Cain parallels for a couple of reasons. First, because sometimes I feel I go a little too far with racial humor considering I grew up around a lot of actual racists and they've undoubtedly had a lot of influence on the way I think. Even though I'm not consciously racist, there's no doubt I am unconsciously so I feel that I have to keep that in check.

And second, because as funny as Carson is, I just don't think he'll ever be as funny or as scary as Cain was.

This is awesome. I've been trying to do my best to take note of my own biases. It's way harder than you'd think it would be, and even if you can identify them, it's hard to act on that knowledge.

But yeah, I just think that .gif is so amazing, and really it works for any candidate who makes an embarrassingly bad campaign ad, but there's a nice layer of racial (not racist imo) humor added on in this case.

Also, some of my fondest memories are watching the GOP debates in 2011 with you guys in CM.

what i find funny is all the donks who criticize the gop candidates' tax plans. right, because it's so wrong for the government to take less money from people. if a guy buys a house then goes under and knocks on your door and tells you that you need to pay his mortgage, you tell him to gtfo. but apparently when it's the government, when you acknowledge that the government debt and deficit are an analogous scenario, you're not being serious.

god has got nothing on the god that is government.

Whether I agree or disagree, you often post insightful or at least interesting analysis. This, however, is not one of those times.

[wufwugy]

Whether I agree or disagree, you often post insightful or at least interesting analysis. This, however, is not one of those times.

that's because i kept it short, not expounding on why how a tax policy affects the government's budget is the wrong frame.

[wufwugy]

it's looking like carson is finally on the down. it has to do with him not being so hot on foreign policy and cruz taking his supporters. it's also looking like cruz is getting the key iowa endorsements.

i wouldnt be surprised to see this happen: cruz gets first in iowa, trump second, rubio third. the establishment all rallies behind rubio and trump bows out and endorses cruz. stage set for the showdown between two highly competent senators, one the establishment hates and one they're okay with; one the conservative base loves and one they're skeptical of.

[wufwugy]

eh but that's not going to happen. several are not going to bow out until after new hampshire. bush, christie, kasich will all stay. trump woudl stay as well if he didnt lose badly in iowa. he's unlikely to lose badly even though he is likeley to not get first

[spoonitnow]

Who wants to bet on Trump winning Iowa? I would, but I don't think it's fair to bet with people who are delusional about Canadian Cruz's chances.

[wufwugy]

it's not about believing in any individual candidate. it's about understanding that even on rare occasions, the endorsed christian conservative candidate still wins the iowa caucuses. even fucking santorum did it.

the writing is NOT on the wall that trump should be able to beat this. he's not getting christian conservative backing and he doesn't have much gotv infrastructure. while it is possible to expand the iowa caucus-goer electorate, trump looks to be only doing half of what it takes. also it may be less possible to do that for the gop than it was with obama and the democrats, in that expansion of the iowa caucus-goer electorate could easily just be about more christian conservatives.

anyways, the goal among the iowa evangelicals is to find a christian conservative candidate to rally around much earlier than happened with santorum. cruz has a more clear path to iowa victory than trump. not by a lot, since if trump can get magical turnout and around 30% of the vote, he can still win the caucus. but if the evangelicals do what they're trying to do and they endorse cruz instead of trump, trump is going to have a hard time beating cruz. it's looking like carson won't be getting the endorsement. rubio could get the endorsement. there is an outlier chance that trump gets the endorsement, but that would be strange. all signs point towards it being cruz.

a trump cruz showdown would be interesting. theyre both among the best messengers possible. either one could be out of the league of the other one, but it's hard to say if or which at this point.

[spoonitnow]

Trump >>>>>>>> Cruz

All the Cruz nuthuggers in this thread are hilarious.

[wufwugy]

it's no fun when you dont try

[kingnat]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-trumps-polls/

[spoonitnow]

Trump continues to stomp Cruz's nuts in Iowa in every poll out there.

[wufwugy]

theyre going to hit this approach hardcore just before the primaries. it's gonna work. sorry spoon.

[spoonitnow]

Check it out, a highlight of shit that made Trump's poll numbers surge.

[wufwugy]

except they didnt, and there's a very reasonable rationale for why perpetual mocking of him close to the primaries will work.

i know one trump supporter irl. he's in it for the lols. when it comes time to sign the card, he's changing and so are others.

[spoonitnow]

So now your logic is his supporters won't actually vote for him. l-o-fucking-l

[wufwugy]

So now your logic is his supporters won't actually vote for him. l-o-fucking-l

a majority probably will vote for him. clearly you havent been paying attention if you think it's unreasonable to think that a larger proportion of those who support him in polls are unreliable supporters when the vote comes relative to the supporters of other candidates.

[spoonitnow]

Trumps supporters have remained more steady than those of any other Republican candidate.

[wufwugy]

Trumps supporters have remained more steady than those of any other Republican candidate.

you're looking at the wrong metrics. they're not likely caucusers. he performs unusually well in the most unreliable polls (non-random volunteer internet polls). he performs unusually poorly in live polls.

plus he doesnt have gotv. he only wins this thing if harry potter is real life. sure, he could win it, but we'd have to throw out the book because it would mean that basically everybody who studies this stuff is very wrong.

[spoonitnow]

you're looking at the wrong metrics. they're not likely caucusers. he performs unusually well in the most unreliable polls (non-random volunteer internet polls). he performs unusually poorly in live polls.

plus he doesnt have gotv. he only wins this thing if harry potter is real life. sure, he could win it, but we'd have to throw out the book because it would mean that basically everybody who studies this stuff is very wrong.

So what you're saying is that he performs poorly with people who don't use the Internet, which is ridiculous. Do you even know what a caucus is?

He performs "unusually well" because he's not the usual candidate. You can keep hand-waving away how much he's kicking everyone's ass straight to the White House. On the day of his inauguration you'll probably be like, "Actually this is just a PR stunt and the real inauguration is happening behind closed doors with Bernie Sanders in his socialism clubhouse that Obama built."

[JKDS]

You're like that guy who keeps arguing 9/11 was an inside job.

[spoonitnow]

Yeah the government would never lie or kill innocent people to get into a war cough Gulf of Tonkin cough.

[wufwugy]

what irony that you'd use an example of a conspiracy that was revealed because it leaked to suggest the veracity of a different conspiracy at a grander proportion of several magnitudes that hasn't leaked.

[wufwugy]

you don't know me that well if you think i would deny something in the face of new evidence.

and no, he doesn't perform "unusually well" because he's an unusual candidate. he does so because of non-response bias. in the polls in question, the samples are adult volunteers, not of random registered/likely voters.

i won't repeat the other issues he has because you're ignoring them. the last thing to look at on the issue is that his supporters are people like you, people who are typically disengaged from politics. while it is possible to make a coalition around those people, it's hard because those people are less likely to do things like stick it out after a barrage of negative ads or to attend a caucus.

there is still theory in the campaigns that trump is planning to pull out pre-iowa, because he's doing fuckall when it comes to gotv. a trump win with his strategy would be a thing of wizardry. you don't win elections by getting people to agree with you; you win elections by finding the people who agree with you and driving them to the polls. otherwise too many will simply forget. since the results of elections depend on the margins, you kinda can't win without gotv.

[spoonitnow]

People like you are the reason why this country is in the sorry state it's in. Winning is winning is winning is winning. What do you have against winning?

[wufwugy]

about as much as i have against bad trolling

[spoonitnow]

about as much as i have against bad trolling

I posted a picture of me wearing a "Make America Great Again" hat. What more do you want?

[wufwugy]

i could see myself wearing a "make america grate again" cap.

[spoonitnow]

That's because you hate people having jobs.

[spoonitnow]

[wufwugy]

looks like trump won the "michael keaton was better" primary.

[spoonitnow]

First it was Bush who everyone said Trump could never beat. Beta bitch boy Bush was no match for the superior alpha male.

Then Trump pissed off Megyn Kelly, and they thought "oh shit, we could put a woman against him!"

Along comes Fiorina propped up by the media, and she was quickly smacked down by the Donald.

"Well fuck," they said. "Let's send in a black guy. Republicans would love to show they can vote in a black guy too."

Trump chuckled and let Carson gain some black guy ground. Then when Trump got bored with him, he smacked him down as well.

"Maybe he was too black for Republicans," they thought. "I know! We'll send in a guy who looks white but who can claim to be Hispanic."

Now Trump is watching Canadian Cruz and licking his chops. Another Republican media creation to butcher and destroy.

Who will be next in the path of Trump's destruction? The Republicans aren't going to have anyone left if they keep feeding him people left and right.

[a500lbgorilla]

Who will be next in the path of Trump's destruction?

Reality.

[spoonitnow]

Reality.

The reality that he's been the best-polling candidate with the correct views on nearly everything? Who's going to stop him, Bernie Socialist Sanders? LOL

[a500lbgorilla]

The reality that he's been the best-polling candidate with the correct views on nearly everything? Who's going to stop him, Bernie Socialist Sanders? LOL

Hilary, obv.

But Jeb/Rubio before that.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-trumps-polls/

[wufwugy]

First it was Bush who everyone said Trump could never beat. Beta bitch boy Bush was no match for the superior alpha male.

bush's team thought this. few else did.

Then Trump pissed off Megyn Kelly, and they thought "oh shit, we could put a woman against him!"

nobody cared

Along comes Fiorina propped up by the media, and she was quickly smacked down by the Donald.

neither caused any damage to the other

"Well fuck," they said. "Let's send in a black guy. Republicans would love to show they can vote in a black guy too."

Trump chuckled and let Carson gain some black guy ground. Then when Trump got bored with him, he smacked him down as well.

polls with more rigorous standards than the ones you like have told a different story. right now, carson isnt doing so hot because of isis, but back when it was "him vs trump", the iowa numbers were bad for trump. there's reason to believe (but not confirmation) that trump had less than half the support of carson.

"Maybe he was too black for Republicans," they thought. "I know! We'll send in a guy who looks white but who can claim to be Hispanic."

Now Trump is watching Canadian Cruz and licking his chops. Another Republican media creation to butcher and destroy.

likely scenario: cruz gets evangelical iowa endorsement, wins iowa. trump underperforms iowa (which is almost certain to happen regardless of anything). trump's new hampshire numbers fall after everybody sees the paper tiger for what it is. trump tucks tail.

or, as some insiders think, trump knows this is coming, so he's planning to pull out pre-iowa

Who will be next in the path of Trump's destruction? The Republicans aren't going to have anyone left if they keep feeding him people left and right.

it's entertaining at least.

[a500lbgorilla]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/stump-speech/

Fun read on stump speeches.

[spoonitnow]

Anyway the whole Trump thing is fun, but I'm going to try to be responsible and stop spending so much time on forums, so here we go.

If anyone thinks that the elections are anything more than entertainment, then I feel sorry for you.

[a500lbgorilla]

Anyway the whole Trump thing is fun, but I'm going to try to be responsible and stop spending so much time on forums, so here we go.

If anyone thinks that the elections are anything more than entertainment, then I feel sorry for you.

[spoonitnow]

Rubio has 100x more chance than Jeb, and Jeb has no chance.

100 * 0 = 0

[wufwugy]

the latest string of polls show trump in the best position he's been since he entered the race. it's the syrian refugee/anti-immigration stuff hitting the spotlight again. nationalism is as enticing as it is detrimental.

[spoonitnow]

AND TRUMP CONTINUES TO DESTROY EVERYONE IN HIS PATH

[spoonitnow]

Trump Trump Trump Trump

A smart man like you would actually vote for trump?

Can you imagine the absolute hell that this guy would put Congress through? That alone is worth it.

Trump speaks the truth on a lot of things, especially regarding politics and politicians, that would make for exceptional entertainment for the next eight years.

[wufwugy]

fwiw the ability for trump to win the nomination is gradually, slowly creeping up.

[wufwugy]

[spoonitnow]

The Trumpening continues.

[a500lbgorilla]

Thought I was in that WWF thread for a second.

[spoonitnow]

Thought I was in that WWF thread for a second.

The election is roughly the same thing, and I mean that 100 percent sincerely with no sarcasm.

[a500lbgorilla]

The election is roughly the same thing, and I mean that 100 percent sincerely with no sarcasm.

Thanks, fag.

[wufwugy]

i now think trump can actually win. an underperformance in iowa might not hurt him a whole lot. the evangelicals might not coalesce around one candidate, as they have intended to, because they're okay with rubio if rubio is the establishment favorite. nobody yet knows how many trump poll respondents will actually be able to caucus (caucusing is quite hard), but a primary, especially a new hampshire primary, works in trumps favor.

i kinda wanna read the art of the deal. i feel like trump is a pure marketing man and everything about his persona is affectation for purpose of optimizing superficial public support.

[wufwugy]

that said, trump's support is VERY superficial. it seems that as people learn more about him and more about others like cruz, they go to cruz.

[wufwugy]

cruz carson fiorina and trump may be the only people im comfortable voting for. the ethic of statesmanship is a fucking virus. even those who have their heads on straight but are deeply embedded in the ethic of the state, like bush, don't seem to get it. the statesman cannot imagine a solution that doesn't involve government control. i can't imagine any of the establishment candidate supporting an amendment to the constitution that says "the legislature shall pass no law that...", but i could see one of the outsiders doing that. i also can't see any establishment figures, even rubio, understanding that judicial interpretation of the commerce clause is the main subversion of constitutional principles. but i could see the outsiders understanding that. while rubio could possibly understand that, if he got elected by the establishment, he wouldn't touch the subject.

[a500lbgorilla]

cruz carson fiorina and trump may be the only people im comfortable voting for. the ethic of statesmanship is a fucking virus. even those who have their heads on straight but are deeply embedded in the ethic of the state, like bush, don't seem to get it. the statesman cannot imagine a solution that doesn't involve government control. i can't imagine any of the establishment candidate supporting an amendment to the constitution that says "the legislature shall pass no law that...", but i could see one of the outsiders doing that. i also can't see any establishment figures, even rubio, understanding that judicial interpretation of the commerce clause is the main subversion of constitutional principles. but i could see the outsiders understanding that. while rubio could possibly understand that, if he got elected by the establishment, he wouldn't touch the subject.

I like Cruz because he's a slippery motherfucker. I respect the game he's playing because it's a power-play. He holds himself infront of his people like he's wearing flowing robes of white and he's crisp enough to handle himself if anyone tries to corner him. I think he's completely bonkers though.

But the important thing to notice is that it is a power-play. The gov't of the Unites States of America wields a lot of practical power in the world. It can change lives accidentally. No one is going to get a law through the legislature that handicaps its power because every step of the way is littered with people who love power. If you want a better system, you have to win a war and bake it in day 0. And don't forget, winning a war is the ultimate power-play.

[wufwugy]

I like Cruz because he's a slippery motherfucker. I respect the game he's playing because it's a power-play. He holds himself infront of his people like he's wearing flowing robes of white and he's crisp enough to handle himself if anyone tries to corner him. I think he's completely bonkers though.

But the important thing to notice is that it is a power-play. The gov't of the Unites States of America wields a lot of practical power in the world. It can change lives accidentally. No one is going to get a law through the legislature that handicaps its power because every step of the way is littered with people who love power. If you want a better system, you have to win a war and bake it in day 0. And don't forget, winning a war is the ultimate power-play.

i get that. my hypothesis is that cruz is not one of those people, at least not to the degree that standard washington is.

im not ready to say that his oleaginous front is due to nefarious motives. it's probably just his own form of social awkwardness. the guy is possibly the closest to actual genius of anybody who has run for president since inception of the office.

[a500lbgorilla]

I like Cruz.. I respect the game he's playing... He holds himself infront of his people like he's wearing flowing robes of white and he's crisp enough to handle himself if anyone tries to corner him. I think he's completely bonkers though.

Let's not forget though

[spoonitnow]

After Trump body bags Cruz's off-brand 16% ass, Hillary's next. Bernie doesn't have a chance against her.

[a500lbgorilla]

Nothing gets my dick more rock hard than attractive women, some unattractive women, certain twinks, sexual situations that move toward sex, and Hillary Clinton's lockdown 4 year campaign.

[a500lbgorilla]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-...-rape-suspect/

"When I was a 27-year-old attorney doing legal aid work at the [University of Arkansas] where I taught in Fayetteville, Arkansas, I was appointed by the local judge to represent a criminal defendant accused of rape," she said when broached with the topic in an interview with British online network Mumsnet. "I asked to be relieved of that responsibility, but I was not. And I had a professional duty to represent my client to the best of my ability, which I did."

My

In a sworn affidavit aiming to coerce a psychiatric evaluation of the sixth-grade victim, Clinton during the case nearly 40 years ago called into question the girl's emotional stability, arguing she had exhibited "a tendency to seek out older men and engage in... fantasizing." She added, citing a child psychology expert that "children in early adolescence tend to exaggerate or romanticize sexual experiences and that adolescents with disorganized families, such as the complainant, are even more prone to such behavior."

girl.

[wufwugy]

part of me thinks that trump might not be too inclined to attack cruz since he probably wants to pick cruz for his running mate.

[wufwugy]

also if attacking anybody can hurt trump, it's cruz. because cruz will respond to it all by saying how right mr trump is. cruz's jabs will only be the super subtle ones that trump can't really hit back on, like cruz saying that he agrees with trump on loads of stuff but he thinks that a different demeanor will win the race. there's not much trump can do with that, partly because it's not a direct attack on trump. and partly because trump knows it's partly true.

[wufwugy]

cruz demonstrates that he really isn't like other politicians, that he actually understands important, complex issues

http://qz.com/566019/texas-tea-party...deral-reserve/

the short of it is that the federal reserve is responsible for the financial crisis and the great recession due to its unusually contractionary response to the market contraction of the sub-prime recession. for political reasons, mainstream economists have not accepted this, even though they accept the theory as true. but they are coming around rather quickly because other economists have been beating them over the head about their idiocy in ignoring well-established theory.

to date, cruz is the only politician who has voiced an opinion consistent with the economic theory. normally this would be a mundane thing, but the policy is among the most important things in the world. that doesn't just mean most important right now, but most important ever. an ignoring of the theory that cruz's statements indirectly accept is the primary factor in creation of the great depression, great recession, and pretty much every modern long-term recession not created by supply shortages of commodities. which makes sense since when central banks act in ignorance of the theory, they create supply shortages of money, in effect creating a recession that lasts for however long as they continue their shortage of supply of a necessary economic input, exactly as what happens with supply shortages of commodities.

a president who could influence the fed to adopt a rules-based nominal level target would have done more good for the world than if you took every other issue combined and passed politically-reasonable, positive legislation on it. monetary policy is just that important.

[OngBonga]

Mr Trump said many Muslims nursed a "hatred" towards America.

I think the fat faced twat meant to say that many Americans nursed a hatred towards Muslims.

It's probably fair to say I "hate" America, at least the nation state repsonsible for the imperialist foreign policy which I see in action today. So, Trump is going to ban all British because of me?

Or is he ok with me hating what America stands for because I'm white and not religious?

[spoonitnow]

I think the fat faced twat meant to say that many Americans nursed a hatred towards Muslims.

It's probably fair to say I "hate" America, at least the nation state repsonsible for the imperialist foreign policy which I see in action today. So, Trump is going to ban all British because of me?

Or is he ok with me hating what America stands for because I'm white and not religious?

So you're saying many Muslims don't hate America?

I mean 9/11, ISIS, "kill the infidels," the shooting just a few days ago by Muslim extremists, etc.

If you deported all Muslims right this second, then mass shooting deaths would go down by something like 30-40 percent (I forget the exact number).

But it's not just America they hate; it's freedom. I mean look at what's happening in the Socialist State of Sweden right now. The rape rates went up like 1500% since they started letting the fuckers in by the boatload.

Somebody's doing the raping.

[spoonitnow]

I think the fat faced twat meant to say that many Americans nursed a hatred towards Muslims.

It's probably fair to say I "hate" America, at least the nation state repsonsible for the imperialist foreign policy which I see in action today. So, Trump is going to ban all British because of me?

Or is he ok with me hating what America stands for because I'm white and not religious?

Convert who protested outside Parliament over Syrian airstrikes with poster saying 'I am a Muslim... do you trust me enough for a hug?' now faces jail for threatening to bomb MP's house

A Muslim convert who protested outside Parliament with a sign saying 'I am Muslim, do you trust me enough for a hug?' is facing jail for threatening to bomb an MP's house.
Craig Wallace used the sign as Stop The War protesters came to Westminster for the vote on military action in Syria last week.
It stated: 'I am Muslim, I am labelled a terrorist, I trust you, do you trust me enough for a hug?'
But the 23-year-old, of Willesden Green, north London, is now facing a possible prison sentence after he threatened Tory MP Charlotte Leslie online following the vote.
Wallace, who calls himself Muhammad Mujahid Islam online, wrote on Facebook: 'I'm going to smash her windows then drop a bomb on her house while she's tucked up in bed. You dirty f****** pig-s******* s***.'

#religionofpeace