ensign_lee's NBA Thread

[ensign_lee]

Let me start off by saying I know little to nothing about the NBA. Really...like diddly squat.

Thus, I will be flat betting THE ENTIRE WAY with my NBA bets. 1 unit apiece, regardless.

Mostly, I will be fading the public (on underdogs mostly). Whenever covers/wagerline shows 70% (I may change this to 66.67% later) of the public on one side with little to no (or even REVERSE!) line moves, I will be betting the other side. If the public is heavy on a favorite, I will take the moneyline on the underdog.

Why take the moneyline? In the NFL and NCAAF, points matter in usually less than 15% of games (meaning that either the underdog wins straight up when it covers or the favorite covers the number when it wins). Thus, if I'm going to go with the underdog, I'm going to take the bigger payout on a moneyline bet instead of the points. I'm thinking that the added payout will make up for the extra bets that I will lose by taking moneylines instead of points. At least...for now. I'm trying to see if the "points don't matter in 85+% of games" thing works in the NFL.

Whenever I'm not betting in that manner, I will be taking the advice of handicappers who I respect. These will probably be the only times I take the points on dogs or when I am playing on sides that have > 33% of the public bets on them.

Allrighty, here goes.

{edited for grammatical clarity...err...thrice (am I really that bad at conveying my thoughts from my head to my fingers?)}

[ensign_lee]

I've already started off; here were the bets. If anyone has a problem with me "past posting" (posting winners/losers after the fact), lemme know and I'll start off 0-0 without these bets. However, I hope y'all trust me by now and will take my word for these bets.

San Antonio M/L @ Dallas (+141.12)
WIN

Denver @ L.A. Clippers (+151)
LOSS

Sacramento @ Chicago (+207.76)
WIN

Utah @ Phoenix (+248.92)
WIN

Boston vs. Detroit (+118)
LOSS

Portland +8.5 (+103.88) @ Oregon State
LOSS

Houston M/L vs. Dallas (+123)
WIN

Portland M/L vs. Minnesota (+131)
WIN

YTD: 5-3
Units Won: +5.51 units

[swiggidy]

Taking the underdog at home when villain played the night before should be +eV, IMO.

Case 1: San Antonio beats Dallas, goes on road looses to cavs

Cavs, beat San Antonio, go on road then loose to Charlotte

[Eric]

Taking the underdog at home when villain played the night before should be +eV, IMO.

For the Lakers it isn't just when the 2nd game is at home. Over the years they are sluggish in the 2nd game of back-to-backs period.

[ensign_lee]

Nobody took my offer on Atlanta last night on matchbook for +560

No bets have qualified for a little while, as I haven't been able to get teh number some of the cappers that I tail have been getting, and the public hasn't been betting huge on certain games for awhile.

Two games up for tonight, though:

Phoenix M/L vs. Dallas (+201.88)
This is based on the Phoenix +6.5 play of a person I respect. But I thought, hey: may as well take it on the M/L

Portland M/L vs. LA Lakers (+182.88)
Public is almost at a 2:1 clip here. Plus, Lakers played last night, so I'm taking y'all's advice that going against a back to back favorite is +ev.

Allrighty. I have an accounting exam to study for, so I won't be here for the rest of the day. See y'all!

[ensign_lee]

1-1 on the night.

Raja Bell couldn't make the free throw to win the game wiht 1.5 seconds left (that's about the point where I finished my exam and checked the score online), and the Phoenix Suns fell to the Spurs momentum.

Damn...

Oh well: 1-1 with ML dogs is much better than 1-1 with dog spreads or favorite spreads. Woohoo.

Wish I woulda had 2-0, though. Oh well... Yay + money!

[zook]

Not bad! But why didn't you bet the Knicks ML???

[ensign_lee]

Because I had no reason to bet the Knicks ML. Duh...

Oh yeah; forgot to post my stats so far.

YTD: 6-4, + 6.35 units

Woulda won <u>2</u> more games if I'd only bet the spread instead of the ML.

[ensign_lee]

Two plays for tonight:

Denver M/L vs. Philadelphia (+129.9) @ Matchbook

Portland M/L vs. New Orleans (+125) @ BetGameDay

Denver has a little over 60% on it, but the Pinnacle lean is on Denver (or rather, it was). Pinnacle was hanging a -2.5 while everyone else was hanging a -3. But that's gone now. Hopefully that wasn't a mistake

Portland M/L: Pinny lean is kinda on this as well. Plus, Portland's been good to me.

[bigspenda73]

Two plays for tonight:

Denver M/L vs. Philadelphia (+129.9) @ Matchbook

Portland M/L vs. New Orleans (+125) @ BetGameDay

Denver has a little over 60% on it, but the Pinnacle lean is on Denver (or rather, it was). Pinnacle was hanging a -2.5 while everyone else was hanging a -3. But that's gone now. Hopefully that wasn't a mistake

Portland M/L: Pinny lean is kinda on this as well. Plus, Portland's been good to me.

You sir are good, Im came in here like 90 minutes ago about to bash you for picking Portland cuz they were down 25 after the 1st qtr. Talk about found money there. Well done

[ensign_lee]

One outered FTW!!!

Haha. I saw the score at halftime and was like "MORONS..." Saw that Portland had a big second quarter, but wasn't sure if it would be enough. Went to watch some Stargate; came back and was like WAHAHOOOOo!

By the way: bashing someone's pick is mean.

[ensign_lee]

Charlotte M/L vs Denver (+166)
1 unit at Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Record stands at 8-5

Two plays for tonight:

Seattle (+137.2) @ New Jersey - Matchbook
Public is on it at a little more than 60+%, but the line has moved from an initial value of +4.5 to +3. Wah?

New York (+205.8) vs. Cleveland - Matchbook
Public is 68% or so on Cleveland - line has yet to budge, except for the occasional -6 out there.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 9-6
Units won: 8.27

Would have won 2 more games if I'd played the spread instead of the moneyline.

[swiggidy]

New York (+205.8) vs. Cleveland - Matchbook
Public is 68% or so on Cleveland - line has yet to budge, except for the occasional -6 out there.

You disgust me

[ensign_lee]

How so?

Pssh. Ohio fans...

Your team keeps costing me money. WTF? I've bet against you twice and you've not only won, but covered the favorite spread both times. You disgust me.

[swiggidy]

Hey Mr. Way too proud of Texas Guy. After the cavs owned San Antonio one would think you'd give them credit.

And seriously, Bron Bron vs the worst run franchise in all of professional sports?

[ensign_lee]

You beat the spread by .5 points. A HALF A POINT! Sssshhh.

And I ain't no spurs fan. ROCKETS ALL THE WAY! (uh...kinda. I dunno; I like my Texans a LOT more)

[ensign_lee]

So far, one play for tomorrow:

Charlotte M/L (+283) vs New Orleans @ Pinnacle

A longshot, yes, but here's hoping it comes in.

[Lazytuna]

Ok, help me understand a few things here. I am slow.

1st- Where are you get the info on how the public is betting?

2nd - Are you betting solely against the public?

It seems you are just picking dogs, is this right.

Trying to get a handle on your strategy.

[ensign_lee]

1 - I use covers/wagerline. It's not quite an exact figure, but more of a representational sample. I've heard good things about sportsinsights (or something like that) that get 'actual' data from the sportsbooks, but I don't wanna pay for that.

2 - No. I'm not betting solely against the public. At good portion of my bets will be solely against the public, but I also operate on the leans of handicappers that I respect. For instance, the Charlotte moneyline I took because a capper that I respect took Charlotte +8.5.

And the majority of my picks will be dogs, yes. Any other questions?

[Lazytuna]

Thanks. I am starting to see it.

Is Charlotte your only pick tonight. When you make your pics, can you show why. Help me to see where you are coming from.

Can you send me a link to the exact page at Covers/Wagerline.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah; I'll try to adjust more reasoning. Didn't know anyone was reading, actually! So I didn't think it to be of the utmost importance.

http://www.covers.com/

and

http://www.wagerline.com/

are the sites of Covers/Wagerline

I'll probably have more pics tonight. I'm letting the dust settle on the bets.

[Lazytuna]

So, just to try and get a handle on this.

Would you say,

M/L Denver, Toronto, Milwakee are all along the lines of pics you would make according to your system.

Thanks again.

[ensign_lee]

NOT necessarily. I only follow the system blind faith at 70+%.

Under that, I use my own judgement. In fact, under 60%, I tend to ignore as reasonable standard deviation with a (relatively) small sample size (only around 2000 bets posted on each side by tipoff).

[ensign_lee]

ATL -1 (+100) @ Matchbook

This comes from a handicapper I respect. And it's not quite at +100, it's at like -100.02, but meh. I don't wanna account for that.

San Antonio M/L +108
This also comes from a handicapper I respect. I was also thinking about it because Houston's home field advantage is really nonexistent, so the extra little nudge the linemakers give to Houston really shouldn't even be there.

Also, San Antonio opened as a favorite and is now an underdog. Usually, when line moves like this happen, it's the public or even the sharps saying "FU Books. We think we know better than you." Funny thing is, the books usually get the last laugh.

Only problem I have with this bet is that bets are 60/40 in favor of San Antonio...so eep?

Utah M/L+105.84 @ Matchbook
Utah turned from being a favorite to being an underdog. I was kinda liking them before, but this does it for me. GO UTAH!

[ensign_lee]

One more for the night:

Denver M/L @ Miami (+188.16)
This a bet of my doing. I think Denver can hang in here. Plus, Pinny seems to be baiting people into taking Miami -4.5. Huh...

[ensign_lee]

I'm cancelling my Charlotte +282 bet with a bet on NO at -280. Whoop dee doo. If Charlotte happens to win, I get ... .02 units.

But I don't feel confident enough on this play to let it stand and well, there was an out...

[ensign_lee]

So my final card for tonight then is:

Denver M/L @ Miami (+188.16) - Matchbook

ATL -1 (+100) vs Milwaukee - Matchbook

San Antonio M/L +108.78 - Matchbook

Utah M/L vs LA Clippers +105.84 - Matchbook

Let's go boys!

[zook]

I'll root for all your dogs if you root for Portland

GL lee.

[ensign_lee]

I appreciate the thought, zook. Chin up; you'll be fine.

YTD: 12-7
Units won: 11.33

Tuesday Night: 3-1
Units won: 3.06

[zook]

Very nice! Out of curiosity, where do you find your "respected handicappers"? On covers and wagerline? You don't have to tell me who they are specifically, just want to make sure I'm looking in similar places.

[ensign_lee]

Thanks zook.

And you have a PM to answer your questions.

[ensign_lee]

For today, I have placed the following:

Milwaukee M/L @ New Jersey (+237.16) - Matchbook
Milwaukee has to lose this game more than 1/3 times for this to lose money. Heck, if they lose this game 1/3 times, it's still +EV, and honestly, I think that Milwaukee is up to the challenge of winning this game at least half the time. Public slightly on New Jersey (slightly under 60%) as well, but that's not quite as big of a factor as you'd think. Pinnacle lean being on Milwaukee, however, is.

New York M/L vs. Washington (+132.3)
Public is on Washington at around 65% or so. Line has moved from an original -3.5 to -3 now. Also, the Pinny lean was on it a little while earlier as well. I think this is as solid as they come.

Bets I might make later:
Charlotte +850 @ San Antonio
A little unsure about this bet as of yet; not sure that Charlotte can really keep up even enough to win this game the 1/9.5 times it takes for this to be +EV. We'll see.


Portland +775 @ Cleveland
Thing keeping me off this bet is that the Pinny lean was slightly on Cleveland earlier. But...it now seems that was just an inkling towards a line move. Portland I think can pull this game out at least 1/5 times, right?

{edited once for grammatical clarity/ edited again to provide reason for edit because I didn't know somebody had posted after this and didn't want it to look fishy}

[bigspenda73]

Well Im kinda taking your advice on SA

Took Charlotte +12 (-105)~2 units

[ensign_lee]

I'm taking Charlotte +12 (-110) @ Skybook instead of M/L. Where'd you get it at -105?

Pinny lean is heavy on Charlotte...Not quite sure why, but uh...yeah.

So, my added play is:

Charlotte +12 @ San Antonio (-110) Skybook

[ensign_lee]

Full card:

Milwaukee M/L vs. New York +237.16
New York M/L vs. Washington +132.3
Charlotte +12 vs. San Antonio -110

Allrighty. Here goes!

[bigspenda73]

I'm taking Charlotte +12 (-110) @ Skybook instead of M/L. Where'd you get it at -105?

Charlotte +12 @ San Antonio (-110) Skybook

Betgameday.com

[zook]

Lee, I'm curious how you interpret the late movement in the Was/NY game. The juice on Was -3 went from +100 to -110 in the last hour or so, and the ML payout on NY has gone from +132 to +141. Is this late sharp money coming in on Washington?

[ensign_lee]

Awww...damn.

I didn't have the courage to put it on the Charlotte M/L and it bit me in the ass.

Oh well; at least they won.

If WAS went from +100 to -110 at the very last second, then yes: that would be sharp money coming in late on Washington.

[ensign_lee]

Blar. If I'd only had the balls to stick it on the Charlotte M/L...I guess that Bills loss by one point was still stinging me. Oh well.

YTD: 14-8
Units won: 12.65

Wednesday: 2-1
Units won: 1.32

Would have won 2 extra games had I done spread vs. Moneyline

[ensign_lee]

One play for tonight:

Sacramento M/L @ Golden State (+180.32) - Matchbook

Public slightly on Golden State (almost 60% but not quite there). Statshark is showing that Sacremento wins this game slightly less than half the time, making this +EV. Really, this second reason is the big reason I'm placing this bet.

So uh, yeah.

[ensign_lee]

Pinny lean hit up Chicago near the end. I dunno if I shoulda trusted it, but trust it I did.

So, apparently, I have two plays tonight.

Chicago M/L @ Houston (+180) - Pinnacle

along with my earlier

Sacramento M/L @ Golden State (+180.32) - Matchbook

[zook]

Nice thing is, only one of them has to hit for you to profit. GL!

[ensign_lee]

Chicago lost by a point. Wow, that sucks.

YTD: 14-10
Units won: 10.65

Thursday's Record: 0-2
Units won: -2

Would have won 3 more games had I bet the spread instead of the moneyline.

[ensign_lee]

One up for tomorrow already:

Courtesy of a handicapper that I respect,
New Jersey/Indiana OVER 187 (-109) - Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

New York M/L @ Miami (+347.9) - Matchbook
Pinny lean; an early one at that. Let's hope it hits?

Cleveland -6 (-105) vs. Minnesota - BetTrojan
Another late Pinny lean. Still debating whether to trust late leans

Seattle -4 vs. Utah (-105) - BetTrojan
Line opened at 2 and shot up to 4, despite the public seeming to be on Utah. WTF?!

Chicago M/L @ San Antonio (+318.5)
Pinny lean has been on Chicago for a little while. I'll just trust that. Watch...the Spurs are going to win, but cover and I'll be sad. Hah. Well, hopefully that doesn't happen and Chicago wins straight up; we'll see.

[ensign_lee]

One more:

Phoenix -7.5 vs. Philadelphia
Pinny doesn't seem to want any Phoenix action, keeping the line at (-112) while everyone else has it at -110 (or -105, if you know the right places). So, I guess...uh...that means I want action on Phoenix.

[zook]

New York M/L @ Miami (+347.9) - Matchbook
Pinny lean; an early one at that. Let's hope it hits?

Damn lee! They destroyed them! Very nice bet. I never would have picked that.

GL with the rest... except Phoenix

[ensign_lee]

Ah damn; forgot to post one. Oh well; probably for the better. It lost anyway.

Memphis M/L vs. Dallas (+206)
whoops.

So, to recap the night:

New Jersey/Indiana OVER 187 (-109)
WIN

New York M/L @ Miami (+347.9)
WIN

Cleveland -6 vs. Minnesota (-105)
WIN

Seattle -4 vs. Utah (-105)
LOSS

Chicago M/L @ San Antonio (+318.5)
LOSS

Phoenix -7.5 vs. Philadelphia (-105)
WIN

Memphis M/L vs. Dallas (+206)
LOSS

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 18-13
Units won: 14.08

Friday Night Recap: 4-3
Units won: 3.43

Difference between betting M/L's and spreads so far: 3 games.

[ensign_lee]

Portland M/L @ New Jersey (+420) - Pinnacle
Pinny lean is on Portland; good enough for me.

Atlanta -2.5 vs. Miami (+100) - Bodog
Pinny lean has been on Atlanta all day. -2.5 @ -116 vs. everywhere else holding steady at -2.5 until just a little bit ago.

Golden State -6 vs. Seattle (-105)- BetTrojan
Pinny slight lean has been on Golden State all day. Unfortunately, the public is at about 60% on Golden State, so maybe that's just them adjusting action? I dunno, but I'm gonna trust pinny on this.

Denver/Toronto UNDER 215 (-105) - BetTrojan
Pinny lean on the under. Plus, hopefully one cold streak will be all that it takes.

Charlotte/Orlando UNDER 195.5 (-105) - BetTrojan
Pinny lean on under. Plus, everyone else is hanging a 195 while BetTrojan is hanging a 195.5. I'll take the free half, with reduced juice.

Portland/New Jersey OVER 187 (-105) - Bodog
You guessed it: Pinny lean. Plus, I get 187 instead of 187.5. I'll take it. Hopefully Portland scores lots of points and wins this game.

[ensign_lee]

Washington -3.5 vs. Cleveland (+100) - Bodog
Pinny doesn't seem to want any Washington money. Huh.

and it seems like Pinny is baiting people into taking Miami, hanging a +3 (-106) while lots of other people are hanging a +2.5 (-110). That's funny.

Phoenix M/L @ Utah (+187) - Bodog
Pinnacle doesn't seem to want any Phoenix money. Ergo, I want action on Phoenix, yes?

This seems to be an abnormal amount of leans. I might just be reading these wrong. The Portland lean actually turned out to be not that much of a lean at all, so if you haven't placed that yet, well, don't. I can't safely get out of it, but you can!

Ok...last one. Maybe.

Dallas/Memphis UNDER 192 (+100) - Bodog
Pinnacle's been hangind under 191.5 @ -112 for a little while now. That's a little suspicious.

[ensign_lee]

And this last one's just kind of a homer bet.

Houston +1 (+100) @ Detroit - Pinnacle

I think Houston wins this more than half the time. I was gonna take the moneyline, but the +1 was at +100 while the moneyline was at +103. I figured hte point was worth 3 cents.

Plus, Houston is MUCH better on the road than at home. If you've ever been to Toyota, you'd know why. So Go Houston!

[ensign_lee]

Haven't had a chance to recap yesterday yet, but here's what I have on tap for Sunday night:

Sacramento M/L vs San Antonio (+127.4) - Matchbook
There damn sure are a lot of people on San Antonio. 68% or so. Good enough to fade.

It's too late for me, but you can get +130 at Pinnacle right now, I think.

[ensign_lee]

and...they got killed. That's a little sad. Oh well: onwards we march.

YTD: 23-19
Units won: 16.18

Despite the somewhat rocky weekend (I hit at barely more than 50%), still profitable, thanks to the +money dogs. I'm going to re-evaluate whether I'm going to continue using Pinny leans. They went pretty even this week, but well...so would flipping a coin.

At any rate, I'll probably still use them, but be a little more selective with them. Rather than taking slight Pinny leans, maybe I'll only take somewhat heavy Pinny leans, and only when they've been there awhile (attempting to attract action) rather than right at the end. I dunno...maybe I'll even end up not changing anything. We'll see.

But yeah. That ends this week in the NBA. Woohoo?

[zook]

Units won: 16.18

Woohoo?

Woohoo!

[ensign_lee]

So far, I have this for tonight:
Memphis/Orland OVER 185 (-111) - Pinnacle

This comes from a capper that I respect; lots of places are now hanging a 185.5, so I had to buy the extra half point to get to 185. Is it that important? Maybe not, but I kinda felt like it.

Bets I'm going to wait until later to hit, but am looking at are:

Charlotte M/L -
Wow: there sure are a whole lotta people on Dallas.

Maybe Portland M/L -
I know, fading the spurs is probably not the best idea in the world. However, around 63+% of people are on Dallas, but the line keeps moving down. Might be value here. We'll see.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I like portland and dallas for sure.

[ensign_lee]

I'm also thinking about hitting up the Golden State Moneyline vs. Portland. The line switched from one side to the other (big red flags for me, unless due to injury), and I think that even with Steve Nash in, Golden State can win this at least half the time, making a bet on the M/L +EV.

And yes: I know that injuries may have affected this line a little.

[ensign_lee]

Ok; WTF is with the Dallas/Charlotte line? Opened at 5 or 4.5, depending on where you got it, with a whole bunch of people on Dallas. The line then proceeds to move the wrong way to 4.

Logically, play would be on Charlotte. BUT...Pinny is hanging Dallas -4 (-110), thereby trying to induce Charlotte action? I dunno. Meh: I'll stick with my gut.

Charlotte M/L (+172.48) vs. Dallas - Matchbook

Also, Pinny heavy lean is on Charlotte/Dallas OVER 192.

So...

Charlotte/Dallas OVER 192 (-110) - Skybook

[ensign_lee]

...and now the Pinny lean is no longer on that over. DAMMIT...

I need to stop following these last second leans. Oh well, here's hoping that Charlotte outscores Dallas... d'oh.

I'm gonna stick my bet in on Portland before the line has a chance to drop anymore.

Anyone else think it's fishy that San Antonio opened as what...a 7.5, 8 point favorite, and are now a 6 point favorite? Despite the fact that around 62% of people are on them? Oh: and I'm also using the cool FTR "fade the back to back favorite" rule. We'll see how that works out.

Portland M/L vs. San Antonio (+240) - BetTrojan

[ensign_lee]

Also adding:

Memphis M/L vs. Orlando (+145) - BetCris
This lean has been there a little while and is standing pat now with a lot of time left before gametime. Pinny is hanging -3.5 (-113) while everyone else also has -3.5, but at -110. Pinny doesn't seem to want any Memphis action. Ergo, I want Memphis action?

and

New Jersey/Seattle OVER 198.5 (-105) - BetTrojan
Pinny is holding over 198.5 at (-115) while most other places are also holding over 198.5 (-110). True, there are two places holding over 199 (-110) but even then, Pinny holds an over 199 (-111). Seems Pinny doesn't want any money on the over here.

Ergo, take over?

[ensign_lee]

Allright: So this is my final card for tonight:

Memphis/Orland OVER 185 (-111) - Pinnacle
Charlotte M/L (+172.48) vs. Dallas - Matchbook
Portland M/L vs. San Antonio (+240) - BetTrojan
Memphis M/L vs. Orlando (+145) - BetCris
New Jersey/Seattle OVER 198.5 (-105) - BetTrojan


Charlotte/Dallas OVER 192 (-110) - Skybook

That last one really shouldn't be there (my reasoning for it was flawed), but I posted it and bet it, so it's there. Let's hope we can luckbox out of this and have Charlotte own Dallas by outscoring them.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah...so...

Yesterday kinda sucked. 1-5 for -3.81 units

which brings my YTD to 24-24 for 12.37 units.

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty; here's what we have on deck for today.

Washington M/L (+182) @ Dallas - Mansion Exchange
Gosh. Fading Dallas has sucked lately. Well, not so much for the public, seeing as they were on Dallas and not only did Dallas win, but they covered the spread, but yeah. Oh well. Public once again heavy on Dallas. Spread started at -6, then went down to -5 . OOOOkay. Here we go again...fading Dallas.

Memphis M/L (+540) @ Cleveland - Pinnacle
For this to be +EV, Memphis only needs to win this once every 6 times. I think they can pull it off more often than that. Say...once every 4 times or so?

New Orleans -4.5 vs. Miami (-105) - BetTrojan
This comes from a handicapper that I respect.

Thinking about Milwaukee, but think I'll hold off for now. Ditto with LA Clips vs. LA Lakers.

[ensign_lee]

Oh so close on Memphis...damn.

Oh well: I've got one more on deck from a handicapper I respect.

LA vs. LA OVER 192.5 (-105) - BetTrojan

[ensign_lee]

Ok. 2-2 on the night, spinning my wheels. But at least I didn't have any juice to lose or anything like that. Memphis covered, but lost. Not that that does me any good, since I had them on the moneyline, but I thought I'd mention that.

Sucks to be betting Moneyline dogs lately. Damn. If you'll look at today's card, no dog won straight up, and only Memphis covered. Shizat. It's been that way for a few days. Let's hope it's just an aberration and the dogs will start winning again.

YTD: 26-26
Units won: 12.37
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[ensign_lee]

Phoenix/New Orleans OVER 208 (-110) - Nine
This comes from a handicapper I respect. Nothing more, nothing less. Go scoring?

He also really likes
New Jersey -3 @ Portland (-110) - Skybook
I took it, but am not yet extremely confident in it. I may end up buying it back if I'm on the same sinking ship as the public. Well, the public's actually been owning it up lately, so...

[ensign_lee]

Allright here we go again with the first round of games going off at 7:00 EST.

Toronto M/L vs. Cleveland (+122) - Mansion Exchange
Lots of the public is on Toronto, but the line opens at around Cleveland -3 and moves down to -2? Here we go again, fading the public. Sure hope it works.

And for the New Jersey bet, I was thinking of buying it back because I'm on the same side as 70% of the public which would normally be an auto-fade. However, Pinnacle moved the line to -3.5 and is keeping the juice at (-114), which means they don't seem to want any New Jersey money. So...for now, I'm going to hold on to that bet. Sorry Portland.

[Lazytuna]

I am in on your toronto pick as well. Makes sense and I had it lined up for the same reasons. Been a rough week so far. GL

I am staying off NJ.

[ensign_lee]

San Antonio -10 (-105) vs. Miami - Nine
Pinny doesn't seem to want any San Antonio money at all, so I think I want some San Antonio action. I'm actually even getting a half point of value (Everywhere else is hanging a -10) and getting reduced juice, so woohoo?!

And if anybody wants to scalp, you can sell a free half point at Pinnacle to get Miami +10 (+111) and then you can take San Antonio -10 (-105) for a profit. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

Also adding:

New York Moneyline @ Minnesota (+192.08) - Matchbook
Public is on Minnesota according to sportsinsights at 68% and wagerline shows them at 58% or so; I guess I'll average the two? At any rate, more people are on Minnesota than New York and the line has gone from -5.5 to -5. At -5, Pinnacle is charging -112, trying to draw in Minnesota Money. So, I guess that means I want money on New York?

[IowaSkinsFan]

pick Houston over Wiz

[ensign_lee]

just so my above post makes sense, everyone else was hanging a 10.5 (actually that changed to 11 later), but yeah.

I sure do hopeHouston wins,since I'm from there, but the rockets suck at covering at home.

[ensign_lee]

Two more:

Seattle +3 (1st Half) @ LA Clippers (-105) - BetTrojan
This comes courtesy of a handicapper that I respect.

Seattle/LA Clippers UNDER 202.5 (-105) - BetTrojan
This is a system play, again courtesy of a handicapper that I respect.