ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 12 ! (YTD: 66-68-1, +37.1 units)

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 66-68-1
Units Won: 37.1
Winning %: 49.25

Breakeven winning %: 43% (I take a lot of underdogs straight up)

~~~
Tighter card this week than normal. Wanted to take the Texans at +290, but with Matt Schaub's knee and the line having moved down to +250, probably going to lay off.

That being said, here's my action for the week:

Pittsburgh -7 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Adding another team to the open teaser I started with Chicago earlier:
3 team 6 point teaser (+180)
Chicago +7.5
Pittsburgh -1
open

2 units at BetPhoenix

New England -3.5 (+107)
2 units at Matchbook

As always, will blindly be taking any team up by 14+ at halftime in the 2nd half.

[ensign_lee]

Atlanta Falcons -3 (-115)
1 unit at Matchbook

Rolling with Ace-Ace on this one. Let's see how it works out. I'm liking the extra rest that the Falcons should have coming off of a Thursday night game, but not liking all the public love at -3.

[ensign_lee]

With the line move in the Baltimore Ravens game going to 13, 13.5, looks like I'm going to be employing another straddle.

If matchbook can get my funds transferred to theGreek in time, I'll be doing this:

Baltimore -13.5, OVER 37
Risking 2.67 units

Carolina +13.5, UNDER 37
Risking 2.67 units

Baltimore -7 (1st half), OVER 19.5
Risking 2.67 units

Carolina +7, UNDER 19.5
Risking 2.67 units

I dunno if I should root for the transfer to go through or not lol. Straddles have me down like 20 units this year.

[ensign_lee]

Found a +14 on the Carolina Panthers at Betmania for only (-113).

Considering I'm getting a half point onto the 14 for essentially 6 cents or so, I'll take it. 14 points at home is still a helluvalotta points.

Carolina Panthers +14 (-113)
1 unit at BetMania

[ensign_lee]

Got my transfer into theGreek. Here goes nothing! ^^

[ensign_lee]

Because Pinny's been leaning on Washington +7 (-111) since 11:00 and I kind of liked the Redskins getting 7 to begin with, going with

Washington Redskins M/L (+279)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

And along those same lines, Pinny's been leaning on Seattle, making it have heavy juice while being a half point lower than everybody else all week as well.

Seattle +11.5 (-104)
1 unit at BetMania

[ensign_lee]

TEXANS LOOOSTTT. :'( I am a sad panda.

Here are the results of my 2nd half bets, since I said I was blindly taking any team up by 14+ at halftime.

Baltimore -4 (-121)
To win 6.2 units at Matchbook

(needed two interception returns for TDs to win this one. LUCCKKKY! )

Green Bay +.5 (-122)
To win 6.15 units at Matchbook

Pittsburgh pk (-128.7)
To win 6.21 units between Matchbook and BetPhoenix

Bengals pk (+100)
To win 4 units at BetPhoenix

Bengals +.5 (-115)
To win 2 units at BetMania

Soooo lucky to win that Baltimore one, should easily have been 2-2. And the Bengals got destroyed second half wow. eeep.

[bigspenda73]

what do you make of the early line (-3.5) on the A&M/Texas game?

[ensign_lee]

I am shocked that A&M is favored and am contemplating taking the UT moneyline to the max? What exactly have y'all been able to do on the road? You beat Oklahoma and Nebraska at home.

Baylor...meh.

[bigspenda73]

Played Arky tight neutral, should have beat OSU in a Thurs night primetime setting, beat KU and Baylor pretty convincingly. I was shocked how small a favorite we are, you have to realize how bad your team is but Vegas has actually been somewhat surprising with the Texas lines despite their struggles.

I was hoping it'd come out at like -5.5 but I even saw it open at -2.5 in a few spots, concerning for me to say the least as I solely care about the outcome and won't be betting on this one.

[ensign_lee]

I dunno. Us opening up as 21.5 point favorites last week instead of the 35+ point favorites we would have been at the beginning of the season shows me that we've lost a lot of respect as far as lines go.

I honestly thought the line would open as pk.

[bigspenda73]

The other thing to remember is our depth at a few spots isn't great and we're "healthy" albeit banged up. Cyrus Gray has been toting it 20+ times a game since CMike went down and now he's getting 4 days rest after doing it against the Nebraska D. At least Texas didn't roll FAU, that game was a battle til the pick6 late in the 3rd.

[ensign_lee]

Finished the week with Chargers -1.5 (-115)
To win 7.14 units at Matchbook

Woohoo!