ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 3! 14-14-1, +2.14 units

[ensign_lee]

I don't think anyone even knows that the online gambling forum of FTR exists, so I talked to 'Rilla and I'm going to put my weekly NFL thread here. At the end of the week, it'll be moved to the online gambling forum.

I transitioned from poker to sportsbetting several years back and I'm hoping that this thread can help spark discussion and maybe some people who never understood sportsbetting can ask me questions and learn a little more about it. Who knows, maybe you'll find that you like it too.

It's similar to poker in a lot of ways. For instance, there are a lot of things out of your control, similar to the fact that the cards are out of your control once two players are all in and there are no more bets to be made. Critical thinking is important as to why certain things happened (why is the line moving this way?).

So yeah, hopefully this helps some of y'all understand how sportsbetting works and how a handicapper thinks. Obviously, feel free to ask questions and if you don't understand something I'm doing, I'll do my best to elaborate.
---
YTD: 14-14-1
Units Won: 2.14

Well SF really let me down, oof. I don't usually do well in games where the favorite wins but doesn't cover, since I subscribe to the theory that you'll come out ahead just betting the underdog straight up rather than with points.

Oh, and turning the ball over 4 times, 3x in the opponent's 30, REAAAALY doesn't help. lol

14-14-1. Looks like I'm the epitome of a coinflip thus far! lol.

Oh well, new week. Here we go.

Putting this one up early because I think the line will surely go higher. Texans/Cowboys OVER 46.5 (-110)
1 unit at Betphoenix

And, what I call a straddle. Betting the favorite and over and the dog and under in the same game when the spread and total are really close together.

New England Patriots -7.5, OVER 21.5 (1st Half)
3.31 units to win 9.28 units at Betphoenix

Buffalo Bills +7.5, UNDER 21.5 (1st Half)
3.31 units to win 9.28 units at Betphoenix

I lose when the game goes dog/over or favorite/under. But I think it's +EV to take this situation when it comes along, especially since I've got the half points in good places and the spread is almost 35% of the total.

Taking another straddle on the same game. 14.5/42.5 ~ 34%, and since each side ends on a half point (so it can't tie), I'm thinking that it's worth it.

NE -14.5, OVER 42.5 (+273.33)
3.2 units at BetMania to win 8.75 units

BUF +14.5, UNDER 42.5 (+260.6)
3.9 units at Skybook to win 10.18 units

Yeah, I know the wager amounts are a little lopsided, but the odds weren't exactly in sync because of the odds of the individual legs of the parlay and I had some extra money that I threw in at the end just to add to the parlay.

[ensign_lee]

There seems to be a lot of teaser bait this week. Lots of lines around +2.5, and there are 3 games with a total of less than 40 with a spread of +2.5.

I'll bite.

3 Team Teaser (+180)
Bucs +8.5
Chiefs +8.5
Jets +7.5
1 unit to win 1.8 units at Betphoenix

Blindly taking the underdog in all three of these games where the total is less than 40. I think this is just good teaser theory in action. Tease games where the points matter more: points *should* matter more in low totaled games.

3 Team Teaser (+180)
Bucs +8.5
Cowboys +9
Jets 7.5

Same general theory, but I'm substituting the Cowboys for the Chiefs. Yes, the total is a lot higher in the Texans Bowl , but with our porous secondary, we might be going score for score the entire game. Hell, there is a very real chance we lose straight up.

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

Minnesota -11.5 (-104)
1 unit at Matchbook

This falls into that system play of taking a good team vs. a bad team the week before the good team goes to a bye. I wouldn't have bothered, but that Pinny seems to be inching this line upwards, and that a lot of people seem to be on the Lions. My first instict was "woah that line is too high", so obviously I must have been mistaken. Sometimes it's good to just go against your first "well duh obviously" instinct.

[ensign_lee]

Cincinnatti -3 (-107)
2 units at Matchbook

Well, if two respected cappers think it's worth I'll bite. Yes, it worries me that bets are coming in 4:1 on Cincinnatti, but here goes nothing.

[ensign_lee]

Bets I want to place, but haven't yet because I haven't gotten the best number/odds yet.

Denver Broncos M/L (+2xx?)
1 unit

The Broncos are not a sorry team that should be getting spotted 5.5 to 6 points AT HOME vs the Colts. If this game was in Indy would you take Broncos +11.5? Or would you take IND -11.5? Because that's basically what this bet equates to.

Jacksonville M/L (+1xx?)
1 unit

Jacksonville has a physical defense that should be able to contain a QB like Michael Vick. They're not as terrible as they seemed last week (I think). I like getting home teams at +money prices.

[ensign_lee]

New Orleans -3 (-112)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Did this line move all the way down because of Reggie Bush? These are still the New Orleans Saints, whose home field crowd is deafening and who won the Superbowl. This line basically says that the teams are even, which I don't think they are.

I'll take NO here at -3.

[bigspenda73]

going to the game today?

re: Denver, check the injury report

[ensign_lee]

PUKE.

@ the texans game

and at me basically losing every bet this week to drop everything I earned and then SO MUCH MORE.

'Rilla, this thread is done. Please move it to the online gambling forum.

[Galapogos]

going to the game today?

re: Denver, check the injury report

This thread was going to be so much cooler if we all just left it alone to see how long Ensign would post in it all by himself.

[spoonitnow]

Not trying to sound like an asshole or anything but am I the only one that has absolutely no f'ing idea what OP is talking about (though it all looks very interesting)?

[bigspenda73]

I'm sure you're not alone but I've spoken with Ed and others at length about sports betting so I have a pretty good idea what he's talking about.

[swiggidy]

This is all very typical sports betting terminology. Shame UIGEA had to ruin the sports betting forum.

Lee, if your goal was ACTUALLY to do better than a coin flip, shouldn't you be wagering on fewer games? I know one of my problems was some internal desire to bet on almost every game.

[kevster]

Lee, can you post some results?

[a500lbgorilla]

"'Rilla, this thread is done. Please move it to the online gambling forum."

Doesn't seem like it's done.

[ensign_lee]

lol, I can't move the thread 'rilla. That's on you. I'm not a mod anymore.

[ensign_lee]

Oh, and for results, I'm sucking.

YTD: 17-20-1
Units Won: (9.8)

Yes, that's MINUS 9.8. Ooof. The straddle cost me big. I usually go big on them since the opportunities to do them don't come along very often.

Yeah, SB is high variances...