ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 5!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 23-26-1
Units Won: -4.27

The fact that I'm picking at 46.94% and my breakeven winning % is at 42.87 and I'm still down seems to be to be evidence that I suck at picking my bigger games.

Bob's overachieving Lions converting third and goal from the 21 right before the 1st half ended cost me > 10 units last week since the Packers -7.5 then did not cover along with the over. Ooof. Oh well, still started digging me out of my hole a little.

Alas, here's Week 5!

~~~
Denver Broncos M/L +(+286)
1 unit at Matchbook

I kind of got run over here. If I'd waited, would have gotten a much better line, but oh well. Honestly, if I had a chance for a do-over, I'd probably remove this bet but it's already live so oh well.

Basically, I think the line is too high here; should be closer to -5 or something, and I think the Broncos win enough here to make this +EV. Plus, I like fading the Ravens and Steelers immediately after they play each other; I feel like the beat down they put on one another carries into the next week.

Houston Texans -3 (+104)
1 unit at Matchbook
Houston Texans -3.5 (+119)
1 unit at Matchbook

I think we're better than the Giants. Straight up. And if you're wondering why I have two bets instead of 1, it's because the second offer seemed +EV at the time. The Texans -3 line was at -109 so basically I'd be selling the half point off the 3 for 28 cents; I think the line is worth somewhere around 20-23 cents, so I thought it was a good deal.

Houston Texans / New York Giants OVER 48.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Forgot to place the over bet last week for the Raiders/Texans game and regretted it. Trying not to make the same mistake here again. Texans are like the old-school Chiefs at the moment - needing to outscore the opponents to win.

Arizona +7 (-110)
2 units at Matchbook
Arizona M/L (+275)
1 unit at Matchbook

Everywhere I look this week, everyone is like "zomg, easy win for the Saints". This is still Arizona at home and hopefully their run game can protect their undrafted rookie QB to produce results similar to the Panthers last week.

Moneyline bet has only been filled about 3/5's of the way at matchbook. Will update with new odds or reduced wager amount.

San Diego -5.5 (-121)
1 unit at Matchbook
San Diego -6 (-112)
1 unit at Matchbook

San Diego's major problems at their other away games were A) Weather disrupting their offense at the Chiefs game and B) Two kickoff returns for TDs against the Seahawks. With the weather report, A should not be a problem and hopefully B does not happen again. I'll ride the ridiculous chargers win streak vs the Raiders here. Of course, I tried that with the Colts vs the Texans we all know how that turned out...

Same logic as the Texans game for why my bet is split between two bets instead of just having 1.

Atlanta Falcons -3 (+103)
Maybe I'm falling into the trap, but I don't see the Falcons struggling with the same problems that they did last week and hopefully the last game will give them the motivation to treat this game seriously.

And, just because I'm feeling crazy/stupid today,

2 unit Parlay
Texans -3, Cardinals +7, Chargers -6.5 (+610)
2 units at BetPhoenix

Probably a stupid idea, but bet's already placed and there's no way to undo it now!

Bets I want to make, but haven't had my offers filled yet:

Tennessee Moneyline (+282)
Maybe I'm missing something here, but I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Why isn't this line -3? Okay, the Cowboys are coming off their bye. Why isn't this line -4.5? It's 7?!

[ensign_lee]

Going to the Texans game now. As always, will be taking any team up by 14 or more in the second half. Will be wager amount 5.13 units (so if the line is -x, to win 5.13 and if the line is +x, risk 5.13 units).

If there are two games going on simultaneously, I'll use the same amounts for both. If the first one wins, the next bet will be larger. If the first one loses, the next bet will be smaller. 5% of bankroll set aside for each bet using this strategy.

[ensign_lee]

Houston Texans -3 (+104)
1 unit at Matchbook
Houston Texans -3.5 (+119)
1 unit at Matchbook

I think we're better than the Giants. Straight up. And if you're wondering why I have two bets instead of 1, it's because the second offer seemed +EV at the time. The Texans -3 line was at -109 so basically I'd be selling the half point off the 3 for 28 cents; I think the line is worth somewhere around 20-23 cents, so I thought it was a good deal.

wow was I ever wrong.

Alas, a bunch of money dumped in that game. parlay gone, over done, 2 unit play on the Texans dead. Yowch.

At least my second half play helped recover some of that, and the others helped win some money as well:

New York Giants +3 (-111)
Chicago Bears +.5 (-111)
Detroit Lions +1 (-107)

Hooray for second half plays. +16 units on just those plays alone. Woohoo.

[ensign_lee]

Adding San Diego -5.5 (-123)
1 unit at Matchbook

With Gradkowski out, I think that Chargers can cover this line. Plus, I'm getting the half point from 6 to 5.5 essentially free.

[ensign_lee]

Minnesota Vikings M/L (+200)
1 unit at Matchbook

With the heavy rain, the matchups become much more run oriented, and I'd rather have AP along with the Minnesota defense rather than LT and the Jets defense. Minnesota's defense is geared much more towards defending the run. Plus, getting +200 I think is nice value when the line should be closer to +130 (even matchup)

OBTW, spenda - nice hit on that A&M game.

[bigspenda73]

didn't middle :saddysadfacearoo:

[ensign_lee]

You won, and by beating the closing line at that where the closing linesiulf have lost. Why cry? That seems like evidence of s good handicapper to me!