ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 6! (YTD: 30-34-1, +10.72 units)

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 30-34-1, +10.72 units

Winning %: 46.88%
Breakeven winning %: 43.06%

Hooray for second halves! They've been saving my ass this season.

~~~
Houston Texans -5 (+110)
1 unit at Matchbook

Damn, if we lose this one I am going to be one pissed off Texans fan. KC's run game is the strength of their offense, which just so happens to also be the strength of our D. I think a trend this year is going to be getting toasted by competent QBs and doing well vs teams that mostly run the ball this year.

Worries me that Pinnacle is hanging a -4 while everyone else has a -4.5 though. If that's still the case when I leave, I'll probably buy this back.

Texans/Chiefs OVER 44 (-115)

Taking another Texans over because I don't think the books have quite caught up yet if this total isn't at 48.5 like it was last week.

New England -2.5 (-105)

I try to take New England whenever they're not spotting the other team an absurd amount of points. This is still a talented, well coached team, playing at home. -2.5 is good value to me.

And oh boy, another Straddle:

Won one yesterday in NCAAF, so hopefully that carries over:

CLE +13.5, UNDER 37.5 (+275~ish)
2.96 units

PIT -13.5, OVER 37.5 (+275~ish)
2.96 units

CLE +7, UNDER 17.5 (+275~ish) 1st half
2.96 units

PIT -7, OVER 17.5 (+275~ish) 1st half

Usually I don't like doing straddles on key numbers like 7 since if either leg of the parlay pushes, then I'm out a fair amount of juice, but the total here was so low I thought it was worth it. I guess we'll see if it bites me in the ass.

[ensign_lee]

Bets I'm still trying to get offers filled on

Tampa Bay M/L
I think they win enough times here to make this +EV. They're at home and getting points, and have a better record than their opponent. Plus, hopefully this week is the week they can get their running game in gear.

Denver M/L
I subscribe to the theory that blitzing actually increases the efficiency of good passing offenses. So I'll take the best passing team in the league vs the Blitz happy jets, getting +money at home.

Oakland M/L
Okay, maybe I'm falling into a trap here, but I'm doing it anyway. If anything, Oakland at this point = San Francisco. This line should be -3. I think Oakland wins here often enough to be +EV.

[ensign_lee]

Also, finishing off the 3 team open teaser I started last week with Chicago and Jacksonville with:

San Diego -2

1 unit (+180) at BetMania

And starting another one for two units at theGreek:
San Diego -1.5
Atlanta Falcons +8.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs the Titans) +8.5

Hopefully San Diego doesn't colosally F up again. It boggles my mind that a team can be top 3 in both offense and defense and be 2-3.

[ensign_lee]

Holy crap. Totally missed the line movement on the Seahawks game. Game started at 7, then went to 6, and has gone to 5.5 in the last hour or so.

According to wagerline and sportsinsights, there are at least two bets on Chicago for every 1 bet on Seattle.

I dunno what's going on here, but I'll make this bet on blind faith:

Seattle Moneyline (+232)
4 units at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

As always, I blindly took any team up by 14 or more in the second half. Was pretty hard to get everything done from the Texans stadium at halftime today. WOOOHOOOO TEXANS!!!! (sucks that Demeco Ryans is out for the season though, oof)

So that left me with:

New Orleans Saints -1.5 (-120)
to win 5.7 units at BetPhoenix/BetMania

St. Louis Rams +7 +104)
risking 5.7 units at Matchbook

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (-110)
to win 5.6 units at Matchbook

Phew, those last second 2nd half scores by the Eagles and the Saints surely did save my ass near the end there today! Alas, St. Louis couldn't prevent the Chargers offense from scoring that one last TD.

I also had a Denver Broncos +3 2nd half bet that lost. I placed that because Pinny was holding a -118 when I took the Broncos for -110 +3 in the second half. It obviously lost, so blargh. I doubt anyone is going to have a problem with me counting it on my record since it lost and all...

But straddle won! WOOHOO! Between that, Seattle's big win, and going 2-1 for the 2nd half plays, that's +18.9 units for the day!!!

[bigspenda73]

nice day

too bad about Meco, now we can't stop the run either

[ensign_lee]

Strong Pinny lean on Jacksonville tonight.

To explain, a pinny lean is when I see that the book Pinnacle doesn't want to book anyone's action on a team. They do this by offering up the worst line compared to other books. This is significant because they normally offer 8 cent juice, meaning an "even" bet would b -104 on both sides vs -110.

Right now, they're holding Jags +3 -116 vs everyone else's -115 or -110, AND their Moneyline on the Jags is at +128 while everyone else is at +135, +130.

I already liked the Jags to start with, since I thought the line should have opened at closer to JAX -1, -2, so woohoo. Evenly matched teams (IMO), with the dog getting points at home.

Jacksonville M/L +135
2 units at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Sweet, found a 5 cent scalp between heritage and matchbook.

Heritage: Jags M/L +140
Matchbook: Titans M/L -136

Took it for the max, and rolling the proceeds into my Jacksonvile position, effectively changing my odds from Jacksonville M/L +135 to +139.8 Woohoo

[ensign_lee]

lolol. Wooowww was I wrong about Jax.

Okay, TEN is up by 17. Therefore, betting on TEN.

TEN +.5 (-108.3)
To Win 6 units at BetPhoenix

Here's hoping this breaks this losing streak I've been on since the early games yest.

[bigspenda73]

explain the scalp thing please (and your consequent play)

[ensign_lee]

Okay, scalp:

+140 and -136 means that I arbitraged the bet. Jags M/L and Titans M/L are obviously mutually exclusive.

Ex: I would bet $100 on Jax moneyline and $136 on TEN moneyline.

If Jacksonville won, then I'd have $4 (Win $140 - $136)

If TEN won, then I'd have $0 ($100 - $100)

Obviously, you can slant this either way you want, but I slanted it towards the Jaguars because I thought they were going to win.

I did this * $600, so I had an extra $24.

Since I kept my original bet, that meant I was wagering $500 (2 units) to win $699 instead of $675, so that changed my original bet basically to Jacksonville M/L +139.8

Let me know if that was confusing.

[bigspenda73]

nah I get ya so you're looking for a higher + than -