FTP just went down... Hard.

[andy-akb]

CLIFFS: You want the company to be able to continue to fuck over ignorant people on the small chance they'll use the ignorant ppl's money to pay you back.

no. i think people are panicking like crazy, and obv it is understandable why, but everybody cashing out immediately does nothing to actually help them cashout. FT is run horribly, we all know that now and if we had known that before then I am sure that less people would be playing there; however, that wasnt the case and we didnt realize this until it was too late.

right now FT is short on cash and cannot immediately pay back Int'l or US players in a timely fashion [I have a cashout that has been pending for 3 weeks, others have cashouts pending for longer], but i strongly believe that they are in fact trying to find investors so that they are able to make things as right as they can. if everybody cashouts out and stops playing there two things will happen, 1. they arent actually going to get that cashout because they arent clearing in reasonable timeframes, and 2. the larger the debt and the lower the player base the less likely they are to find an investor willing to take over the debts

this isnt trying to fuck anybody over in the least, and people need to realize that a run on the bank doesnt help anybody BECAUSE THEY CANT PAY US RIGHT NOW. yea it sucks, if they were processing the next X transactions only and i wished people didnt know about it so I could get a spot in the queue then i would be taking advantage of those people, but if they simply arent processing transactions right now, then i am not taking advantage of anybody and by saying people should continue to play there it is helping everybody get paid back, regardless of the amount of information those individual players have.

simply put, nobody is going to get their money quickly, so it isnt an option of quitting and getting your money or continuing to play and not get it. the options are quit and maybe get your money in >1 month and decrease the sites' revenues making it less likely they can actually pay, or play during that time to help generate revenue for the site so more people can get paid

[Shotglass]

no. i think people are panicking like crazy, and obv it is understandable why, but everybody cashing out immediately does nothing to actually help them cashout.

According to the commission's statement, FTP cannot:

•  Register new customers;
   Accept deposits from existing customers;
   Allow existing customers to withdraw funds that are held in their accounts; and
   Permit customers to participate in any form of poker game play or gambling transaction.

so there's no rush of people trying to cash out right now :P

Here's a link to the press release:http://www.gamblingcontrol.org/userf...n%20290611.pdf

[BennyLaRue]

right now FT is short on cash and cannot immediately pay back Int'l or US players in a timely fashion [I have a cashout that has been pending for 3 weeks, others have cashouts pending for longer], but i strongly believe that they are in fact trying to find investors so that they are able to make things as right as they can.

I guess this is where we differ. I've never understood why people feel it's a realistic scenario that an investor will swoop in and contribute funds to pay debts that were effectively borrowed in order to burn. What would this individual be buying? Certainly not a brand; it was seriously tarnished even before this. Not a player pool...a not-insignificant percentage of FTP players are just interested in getting their cash and moving it somewhere else or getting out of poker altogether until rosier times. There are no other assets to speak of.

[boost]

I guess this is where we differ. I've never understood why people feel it's a realistic scenario that an investor will swoop in and contribute funds to pay debts that were effectively borrowed in order to burn. What would this individual be buying? Certainly not a brand; it was seriously tarnished even before this. Not a player pool...a not-insignificant percentage of FTP players are just interested in getting their cash and moving it somewhere else or getting out of poker altogether until rosier times. There are no other assets to speak of.

The software, the Rush Poker patent.

[BennyLaRue]

The software, the Rush Poker patent.

The software likely isn't something that can't be developed or purchased more cheaply (ie. for less than the amount of debt outstanding + risk) from other vendors but you have something with the Rush patent.

Again though, if I'm an investor interested in that patent, all I have to do is wait for this company to fold and I can pick it up without the accompanying brand headache.

Give up on the investor idea, imo.

[andy-akb]

I guess this is where we differ. I've never understood why people feel it's a realistic scenario that an investor will swoop in and contribute funds to pay debts that were effectively borrowed in order to burn. What would this individual be buying? Certainly not a brand; it was seriously tarnished even before this. Not a player pool...a not-insignificant percentage of FTP players are just interested in getting their cash and moving it somewhere else or getting out of poker altogether until rosier times. There are no other assets to speak of.

The software, the Rush Poker patent.

Yea, a lot of the regs want to cash out, but they cant. I guarantee that if an investor came in and allowed things to go back to normal [i.e. fast cashouts] and provided new management, then more people would stick around. Further, even if all regs leave, that will still leave a huge player base and the games will be incredibly soft. At that point, if regs feel like their money is safe, which it likely would be under new management and with a significant investment, then many would return to play this super fishy player pool. Even after all this stuff has gone down, FT was still almost 3x larger than party poker. To say that they dont have a player base to invest in is foolish. They have a huge player pool even if thousands of regs leave, and that is worth a lot of money under the right management and as Boost said, they have valuable patents that are also worth money to other site operators.

There are definitely investors out there that will buy the company, they just need the right terms and FT has been unwilling to accept those terms, but this very well could be what was needed to get them to accept a new majority stakeholder in the company.

[BennyLaRue]

Even after all this stuff has gone down, FT was still almost 3x larger than party poker. To say that they dont have a player base to invest in is foolish.

Right, but how many were still playing because they couldn't get their money out?

Say this all gets sorted out and everyone gets their money off of FT in a few months time. There are so many alternative rooms and so few restrictions for the remaining players to move money between them, what is a room's player base but a reflection of the loyalty of the customers? Do they still have that? Will they still have that after this?

You're American. I get that you are seeing it from the perspective of what's best for the players and the best hope for getting your money back. But look at this from an investor's perspective and you'll find the upside hard to come by.

[andy-akb]

Right, but how many were still playing because they couldn't get their money out?

Say this all gets sorted out and everyone gets their money off of FT in a few months time. There are so many alternative rooms and so few restrictions for the remaining players to move money between them, what is a room's player base but a reflection of the loyalty of the customers? Do they still have that? Will they still have that after this?

You're American. I get that you are seeing it from the perspective of what's best for the players and the best hope for getting your money back. But look at this from an investor's perspective and you'll find the upside hard to come by.

Partypoker had $170mm in revenue from poker in 2010 and they are a third of the size of fulltilt poker post-black friday. FT could lose 2/3 of their customers and be about the size of party. Using a conservative multiplier, this would still be a billion dollar company even when figuring in $150mm in debts. When the vast majority of full tilt users have no idea about the issues, I dont know how anybody can say that having an investor swoop in and SAVE the company would cause them to lose more than 2/3 of their users. I can understand people leaving because FT left a bad taste in their mouths, but it would simply not be rational to leave a company once it got new management and became solvent.

A lot of investors stay away from distressed companies, but many others deal specifically with them and FT is no different than many other companies. This is one that has huge revenues and even if they lose the majority will continue to have huge revenues, and regardless of what you may think, they have a strong brand. FT will not get anywhere near their "true" valuation, but that doesnt mean it wouldnt be a significant amount of money and enough for Bitar to leave the company, especially with all the pressure he is surely feeling now.

Yes, I am an American who has a vested interest in getting paid back, and I have many friends with significantly more money than me on there and dont want to see them lose that either. However, I am also reasonably unbiased when it comes to business and others with the same objective understanding of business should realize that FT could stand to lose a huge amount of their player base and still be worth a significant amount of money. They are in a shitty position, thats clear, but things could get worse and they would still be a desirable investment under the right terms.

[BennyLaRue]

A lot of investors stay away from distressed companies, but many others deal specifically with them

Yes, but how many deal in saving internet-based businesses with few tangible assets in an oddly regulated and somewhat shady environment, no liquid cash to pay debts, a current inability to operate and earn revenue and pending legal bills out the wazoo? It's a unique situation.

It's a tough looking environment just given what we know and there's so much that we don't know. How many other creditors are out there, aside from having to pay back player balances? This is particularly concerning, imo. Will well-known pros continue to associate with FTP? This had much to do with the brand for the casual player. We know Ivey won't. Stars would be smart to snatch these guys up asap.

As for the quick $1M/day math guy, if it were that simple, it would have been purchased by now. GM made $400M a day in 2008. Did that make them a 400x no-doubt good buy?

[Alexos]

Yes, but how many deal in saving internet-based businesses with few tangible assets in an oddly regulated and somewhat shady environment, no liquid cash to pay debts, a current inability to operate and earn revenue and pending legal bills out the wazoo? It's a unique situation.

It's a tough looking environment just given what we know and there's so much that we don't know. How many other creditors are out there, aside from having to pay back player balances? This is particularly concerning, imo. Will well-known pros continue to associate with FTP? This had much to do with the brand for the casual player. We know Ivey won't. Stars would be smart to snatch these guys up asap.

As for the quick $1M/day math guy, if it were that simple, it would have been purchased by now. GM made $400M a day in 2008. Did that make them a 400x no-doubt good buy?

meh its a big, multi-billion dollar industry, and FTP is still a good brand with decent value. If a reputable company buys it and we get rid of current upper management, ppl will come back to it for sure.

id say there is lots of interest if it goes on sale

[aka_red]

Partypoker had $170mm in revenue from poker in 2010 and they are a third of the size of fulltilt poker post-black friday. FT could lose 2/3 of their customers and be about the size of party. Using a conservative multiplier, this would still be a billion dollar company even when figuring in $150mm in debts. When the vast majority of full tilt users have no idea about the issues, I dont know how anybody can say that having an investor swoop in and SAVE the company would cause them to lose more than 2/3 of their users. I can understand people leaving because FT left a bad taste in their mouths, but it would simply not be rational to leave a company once it got new management and became solvent.

A lot of investors stay away from distressed companies, but many others deal specifically with them and FT is no different than many other companies. This is one that has huge revenues and even if they lose the majority will continue to have huge revenues, and regardless of what you may think, they have a strong brand. FT will not get anywhere near their "true" valuation, but that doesnt mean it wouldnt be a significant amount of money and enough for Bitar to leave the company, especially with all the pressure he is surely feeling now.

Yes, I am an American who has a vested interest in getting paid back, and I have many friends with significantly more money than me on there and dont want to see them lose that either. However, I am also reasonably unbiased when it comes to business and others with the same objective understanding of business should realize that FT could stand to lose a huge amount of their player base and still be worth a significant amount of money. They are in a shitty position, thats clear, but things could get worse and they would still be a desirable investment under the right terms.

UB and Absolute had new management after the super user scandals. Look at them now. Whose to say FTP would be any different?

[Alexos]

UB and Absolute had new management after the super user scandals. Look at them now. Whose to say FTP would be any different?

I remember Negreanu saying it's the same ppl

[andy-akb]

UB and Absolute had new management after the super user scandals. Look at them now. Whose to say FTP would be any different?

from all the stuff that came out around BF, it seems like that is not the case

Phil Tom and Scott Tom are the founders of UB/Absolute.

Scott is one of Full Tilts managers and Phil is one of the majority owners of Full Tilt.

that is not very promising news...

lol what? maybe i got leveled, but thats definitely not true

[Nekrogovner]

I guess this is where we differ. I've never understood why people feel it's a realistic scenario that an investor will swoop in and contribute funds to pay debts that were effectively borrowed in order to burn. What would this individual be buying? Certainly not a brand; it was seriously tarnished even before this. Not a player pool...a not-insignificant percentage of FTP players are just interested in getting their cash and moving it somewhere else or getting out of poker altogether until rosier times. There are no other assets to speak of.

Even after the black friday, how much do you assume that FTP earned each day on rake? Based on player pool of 80k players during peak 8 hours, I would assume that at least 1M$ of rake is generated each day. Or that seems too bold of an assumption?

I'm not a businessman but seems like a good idea to invest into something like that.

[Fnord]

I guess this is where we differ. I've never understood why people feel it's a realistic scenario that an investor will swoop in and contribute funds to pay debts that were effectively borrowed in order to burn. What would this individual be buying? Certainly not a brand; it was seriously tarnished even before this. Not a player pool...a not-insignificant percentage of FTP players are just interested in getting their cash and moving it somewhere else or getting out of poker altogether until rosier times. There are no other assets to speak of.

Brand still has value to the fish (the people who really matter.) That's still got to be worth a few million. You could bring in someone to clean up the credibility problem (like Lee Jones.)

I would estimate the cost of getting a poker platform up from scratch hiring in Silicon Valley to be under 10 million, maybe even under 5 million. The hardest part by far is the payment platform and security end of it, even with the full cooperation of US banks.

[kevster]

I would estimate the cost of getting a poker platform up from scratch hiring in Silicon Valley to be under 10 million, maybe even under 5 million.

It could be considerably less. The real question is "how quickly do you want it?".