GAMBOOLLL

[bikes]

and go.

[DoubleJ]

press Red one hundred times.

EZ game

[eugmac]

Great apes make sophisticated decisions: Research suggests that great apes are capable of calculating the odds before taking risks

nah, press green 100 times. variance should even out pretty nicely.

[eugmac]

but i probably wouldn't press either in fear of the trap door opening under my feet into a den of hungry bears.

[eugmac]

you can't fool me, evil bikes.

[rong]

I pressed red, nothing happened. Where is my mil'?

[Hawk]

A million would change my life dramatically in a meaningful way (buy a house, pay off student loans, put away money for my sons education), plus a little fun.

100 million would change my life in those same meaningful ways, plus a lot more fun ones.

I'd take the definite meaningful changes over the chance at still being broke. Easy game.

[eugmac]

A million dollars I didn't earn ain't worth shit to me.

If you discovered a million dollars (or equivalent in Euros or gold coins or whatever) do you:

a) Take it to the police
or
b) Keep it
or
c) Other, explain.

[jyms]

Get your own thread Eug, bikes askes the questions in this one, don't change the game.

Every part of me wants the green button but I couldn't take the loss, so I go with red

[givememyleg]

god this is so hard.

[Pascal]

Easy green button IMO

[givememyleg]

100% chance of my life becoming more comfortable for the next 5-10 years, as long as i stay within my current living standards.
50% chance of having a ridiculous balling life until i die.
50% chance of staying the same.

i think i gotta go green.

[drmcboy]

red, I'll probably run it up to 100 anyway

[rpm]

red, I'll probably run it up to 100 anyway

ha! nice

[boost]

My gut reaction was green. I think if my life was quite a bit worse, like I had somehow accumulated tens of thousands in credit card debt, I had crazy medical bills, or I had a family that I couldn't care for, the red button is an easy pick. But I'm young, don't have insurmountable debt, and I'm enjoying life as is, so the green button ftw.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Easy RED

My dad has paid all of my living expenses for the past 5 years, plus kicking in where my student loans didn't, so I estimate $100k in debt to my awesome dad.

I have no realistic way to pay this off, and I know how much it would mean to him to KNOW that I never wanted to borrow anything, and that I wasn't just taking advantage because I could get away with it. I mean, he believes it, and it's true, clearly, but to really know is different.

Plus a recent visit to the ER, with no insurance, and my teeth need serious attention.

I've been broke for too long to pass up a sure thing.

If it was $1k or $100k... then GREEN

[Penneywize]

Quite the paradox. Allais you guys get on with it then.

[Penneywize]

Quite the paradox. Allais you guys get on with it then.

Come on guys!

Allais paradox - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Re. the 'if it's 1k and 100k then definitely pick green'. That's exactly what utility of money theory predicts.

HAHA you guys thought you were being clever when your behaviour was already explained by theory! neener neener neeeeener

Risk aversion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Hawk]

If it was $1k or $100k... then GREEN

This

[eugmac]

This

Yeah indeed. I think this thread illustrates how there's a HUGE gap between $1000 and $100K, but anything above a million is basically a very large number for most of us, and we don't really care what multiple of million we have in our account.

[JKDS]

Green, im content enough with where i am to risk it

[eugmac]

Also why things like the US national debt doesn't phase people, because the number is so huge it's just intangible. Do you know whether it's 16 billion or trillion? Do you care?

[bikes]

Also why things like the US national debt doesn't phase people, because the number is so huge it's just intangible. Do you know whether it's 16 billion or trillion? Do you care?

[bikes]

Also. Easy green button.

Damn nits.


No gamble, no future.

[a500lbgorilla]

Green. Since both buttons will net you zero anyway.

[BankItDrew]

red

If everyone in the world had this option, I'd chose green
If I am the only person with this option, I'd chose red
If me and my gf had this option, one would chose red and the other green

[eugmac]

red

If everyone in the world had this option, I'd chose green
If I am the only person with this option, I'd chose red
If me and my gf had this option, one would chose red and the other green

Man dude, you don't have to colour code, I'm able to read just fine! That lime green colour is super tilting.

Curious to know why you would choose green in the case that everybody else in the world was offered the same option?

[Penneywize]

Man dude, you don't have to colour code, I'm able to read just fine! That lime green colour is super tilting.

Curious to know why you would choose green in the case that everybody else in the world was offered the same option?

INFLATION

WHATS A MILLION DOLLARS IF EVERYONE IN THE WORLD HAS THE SAME AMOUNT OR MORE

WHY AM I YELLING??!

[chemist]

Hmm decisions

green or red

[eugmac]

Nothing wrong with independently coming to the same conclusions as Mr. Allais through rational thought now is there Penney? :P Just 'cause the concept isn't new doesn't mean it's not interesting to discuss.

[Penneywize]

NOPE NOPE we are all living predetermined lives with no possibility of individuality and thus this discussion is meaningless

/ceases to exist

[BankItDrew]

lol

duhhhhh

[eugmac]

oh yeah true that. turned my brain off for a sec there, pardon me. so green button since red ensures you die in the gutters, and green means you have a 50% chance to make it out ok.

edit: coming from a guy who constantly tries to inform people about inflation (QE and so on), it was a particularly bad mindfart!

edit2: but hey i just ate an awesome meal and i'm still digesting and stuff, so yeah sadly that's my only excuse.

edit3: penney, i have this deja vu thing happening right now that you and i discussed QE or some inflationary thing on here before. is it just me?

edit4: also an excuse might be I was too pwned by the eye-rapage of the bright green text. also i'm taking advantage of the fact that I can edit all i want within a 15-minute window.

[Penneywize]

edit3: penney, i have this deja vu thing happening right now that you and i discussed QE or some inflationary thing on here before. is it just me?

I had a lengthy discussion / argument with wufwugy on the topic once, hell I think I've argued with wuf a fair bit over the years on random economic topics. It's possible you were involved in one of those discussions but I can't remember specifically.

[rong]

I wonder what proportion of people would take red if it was 100k and how that proportion would change if first of all it was 1mil but then they were told it was a typo and was supposed to say 100k.

Enter Penny with a name and a theory.

[Penneywize]

I wonder what proportion of people would take red if it was 100k and how that proportion would change if first of all it was 1mil but then they were told it was a typo and was supposed to say 100k.

Enter Penny with a name and a theory.

I'd say if it were 100k instead of 1 mil i.e. press red to win 100k, press green for a 50% chance at winning 10 mil, you'd definitely get a lot more people pressing green. The reason for this is that 100k, while a certainly large amount of money, losing it for a (strong) chance at winning 10 mil isn't so bad, given that many people make that amount of money in a year or two. So 100k is not necessarily a life-changing amount, while 1 mil almost certainly is for all but the richest among us.

Don't think there's a name for that but it's all under utility of money iirc

[bikes]

BIN you are the worst kind of nit.

[eugmac]

BIN you are the worst kind of nit.

Curious to know how many kinds of nits there are.

[supa]

In my current situation I'd have to choose red. Too many things I need to settle to get my family back on a comfortable track.

If I was single I'd have to choose red because I'd spend the mil in less than a year cuzza coke whores and stuff.

[Micro2Macro]

If I had the option right this second, I would choose red.

First off, having $100 million in cash would create more problems for me than it would solve. I would feel that receiving such a large sum of money and not knowing what to do with it would lead me to develop some weird mental side effects related to entitlement and also leave myself with nothing to really work towards. It would make most of my days feel pointless and empty, despite being super rich. I don't have experience investing in things that only accredited investors can touch, so jumping right in to complex investments like hedge funds and pre-IPOS to seek ways to grow that money even more could possibly end up fucking me. People would also never leave me alone on top of it, and I may end up losing friends or making ones that I don't like or don't actually like me.

With $1 million cash, I could buy a decent place here http://www.33baystreet.com/, which is where I plan on moving to next year hopefully, and still have a nice chunk leftover to invest. I would own two properties if I bought one here because I own my current home, so leveraging the two properties to grow a real estate portfolio of rental properties to build wealth into something even bigger would be a project I'd enjoy working on and push me forward on the path of living a fulfilling life.

I have a plan to turn the $1 million into much more and I know how I'm going to go about it and would have fun doing so. I'm actually so eager to do what I plan to with $1million cash that I would forgo a higher EV gamble just to secure it. Also the pain of pressing that green button and losing would be so extreme, I don't think I could handle it, especially knowing that I would be a lot happier than I am right now with that guaranteed million given my current situation. Having $100million would certainly be fucking awesome, but there are certainly going to be drawbacks, and after giving it thought, this is what my final decision would be.

[Galapogos]

With $1 million cash, I could buy a decent place here http://www.33baystreet.com/, which is where I plan on moving to next year hopefully

Off topic, if you plan on buying a condo in Toronto within the next couple of years you're going to be burning a big chunk of change.

[Micro2Macro]

Off topic, if you plan on buying a condo in Toronto within the next couple of years you're going to be burning a big chunk of change.

plan is to rent a year and re-eval. thx for heads up.

[bigspenda73]

I'd say $5M and I'm hitting red

meh after another minute of thought, I'm taking $3M on red, $1M doesn't quite do it in today's world. $3M and I could easily never work another day AND my next generation would have a head start.

[jyms]

But that's the point, you can't change the rules to make the choice easier.1 mill is more htan enough if you do it right. But it's not a guarentee and things aren't going to be easy. If you wnat easy you have to be able to GAMBOOOL and accept possibly being busto

[swiggidy]

1 mill is more htan enough if you do it right.

This

But it's not a guarentee and things aren't going to be easy.

But I strongly disagree here. One mill should be able to net you $50k year (avg) which is more than enough to live comfortably on.

I could quit my job, decide what if anything I want to do to make some side cash. I don't need a fancy car or a boat or crazy vacations so I would be fine to spend my time how I see fit. That is life changing and is worth it. With $50 mill I would just be blowing money on excess (note: excess is not a dude) and it would not make me more happy than not working a 9 to 5.

[bigspenda73]

But that's the point, you can't change the rules to make the choice easier.

I answered the original hypothetical, it's GREEN for me.

[d0zer]

imma hit the red cuz 50% chance of getting murder suicided by wife would only be worth it if I didn't have a child depending on me.

[daven]

red for me obviously

[BankItDrew]

imma hit the red cuz 50% chance of getting murder suicided by wife would only be worth it if I didn't have a child depending on me.

If you take the milli, your child won't be depending on u nemoar

[d0zer]

If you take the milli, your child won't be depending on u nemoar

it's a child, not a cat

[rpm]

i'd take red and deal with any regrets i may have about that choice once the money ran out.

[BankItDrew]

I really enjoyed reading micro's post. Everything he said were things that went through my head.

[bigspenda73]

also people are saying what amount the red needs to be in order to hit it

how about what % the green needs to be to hit red or if you chose red, what % the green needs to be to take it

[bigspenda73]

if I have $1M I don't want to be pinching pennies, that's what I feel I would do with just $1M handed to me. I'd def. attempt to never work again, but people are probably overestimating the return you can get on your money these days.

Now for those who will continue to work, $1M is probably great. With very good investing you might be able to quadruple it in 20 years.

[swiggidy]

if I have $1M I don't want to be pinching pennies, that's what I feel I would do with just $1M handed to me. I'd def. attempt to never work again, but people are probably overestimating the return you can get on your money these days.

The U.S. median income is 45k, so you would need 4.5% return (I guess I'm not factoring in taxes here).

I think most people vastly overestimate how much money they need to live comfortably.

[Alexos]

100 mil you'll be ballin' for life, 1 mil changes your life for a few years

If you're under 35 and not starving, press green ffs

[bikes]

100 mil you'll be ballin' for life, 1 mil changes your life for a few years

If you're under 35 and not starving, press green ffs

THIS

[Alexos]

For me the cutoff would be 10 mil, just cuz I'm not that materialistic (my yacht doesn't have to be THAT big :P), although I'm obv kicking myself for giving up 40 mil in EV (wtf)

[boost]

ya, 10 mil and it's snap red... but since it's a snap for me, then my line has to be lower than that. I'm thinking 3mil or so like someone else said.

[rong]

Meh, my line us 250k in pounds, ie enough to buy a nice enough 4 bed house outright. This means outgoings are practically nothing. If you can't make a success of your life from that point you're fucked regardless.

[rong]

I think if I'm forced to press the green button regardless to see what I would have won I may be more inclined to gamble.

[boost]

ya, I think if you're allowed to rabbit hole the green button after pushing the red, then I'm just always pushing the green. Not really sure why though..

[!Luck]

Red.

[Eric]

I have to go for green.

[wufwugy]

Easiest question in the history of the world

red

[wufwugy]

1 mill would actually change your entire life if you're not crazy. A million in the bank would provide you with peak opportunity to make the most of your life; 100 million in the bank would only add some shiny things (and a lot of noise) to that

[!Luck]

Wuf it's painfully obvoius that this predicts navity or current wealth. If your net worth is over 500k going to 1.5 doesn't me as much.

[jyms]

i'm friggin' 48 and have an 8 yr old son. I may make 40K this year, pretty sure red is a no brainer here even for half the price. That said, gimme 75% chance ont he green and maybe I start thinking differently too.

[Jack Sawyer]

Snap green.

Imma go "fuckit YOLO" and hit it.

[mbiz]

red

wheres the poll?

[donkbee]

a little late to the party, but I'm breaking my hand snapping green.

would hit red if it were 2M

[JKDS]

Heh, now thats an interesting question. If it was 2M, i think i would take it too.

Certainly if it was 5M. At that point, green could be almost anything and i may still take the 5M.

1M just isnt a lot of money imo. Yeah, if you penny pinch...1M can give you 25 years of a 40k salary. But could you buy a house? Car? Afford repairs on either? Send kids through college? Send yourself through again? 1M can get these things...but you'll be spent after. So you'll reach what you want in life, but probably still have to work. And lets face it, fuck work.

2M+ though, you can get what you want and still not work. 5M and you can live really comfy with hoes and shit.

In terms of the 100M...id give up the chance to own my own private island and jet. I can deal

[wufwugy]

1M is way more than enough to buy all things that truly improve your life. This is because the idea of joy emerging out of ballin status is simply not true. The only way money brings happiness is through the security and opportunity to engage in the activities that enhance your life. The person who takes 1M and uses it wisely to follow their dreams will be much happier than the person with 100M who makes it rain and snorts blow off of hookers' asses. The former will find a fulfilling existence while the latter will spend a whole lot more time than he wanted sitting by himself on the beach browsing reddit

[simpledude16]

its quite easy, just take the green and sell off whatever % you want to a rich person for a discount and lock up whatever money you need to be set then take the freeroll for more

[chemist]

its quite easy, just take the green and sell off whatever % you want to a rich person for a discount and lock up whatever money you need to be set then take the freeroll for more

Excellent

Risk Management Theory at it's finest.