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Theon is a great character, but I hate who he is.
Actually, you're right about Poliver then The Mountain (if Poliver is the guy with Needle). I forgot about Mountain, but that's probably where they're gonna go. I just really hate killing Tywin like that. There is soooooo much for his character to do that if I were GRRM, I would have written in a different plotline than having him die to A Man. My main reasoning for A Man gonna be killing Tywin had to do with that ballin scene of "anybody can be killed". The Arya/Tywin story is way too good to allow it to end like that though. Things like she'll be his cupbearer for quite some time, he'll probably be promoting her too (because he's clearly smart and his behavior implies that he's finding reason to think she's smart, or at least "of use" and even that he thinks she's hiding something important), then that whole dynamic could be a huge story. So A Man shouldn't be asked to kill Tywin. It would be really stupid of Arya anyways, since he's her sugar daddy. On the flip side, it could be really smart of Arya since killing Tywin could save the North/her family/etc
I feel like Myrcella is actually going to Dorne, and may be used to get the Martels on the Lannisters side. Would be very interesting to see Stannis sandwiched, since Dorne is below him in latitude. I still have Stannis/Melisandre taking over thoughout the series, then Dany and her dragons being viewed as saviors by the audience when they invade. If this is true, I wouldn't be surprised if Dany begins to come off wanting to invade, then the audience has find out if she'll decide to come around to it and thus be the unwitting hero. Not sure how this dynamic plays with Winter though. There are several different plots converging, and only a few can come out alive. So in that sense, it could only be Dany vs Winter, not Melisandre vs Winter. So if Winter comes soon enough, it means Stannis/Melisandre get quashed somewhat soon, probably either by Winter itself or Dany. The final product of this whole storyline (as we know it) has to be Dragons vs Winter though.
It's possible that Tyrion and the wildfire will be able to hold off Stannis and Melisadre, but I honestly do not see any magic people losing to non-magic people for a long time. The story will soon become Lannister vs Stannis and Stark vs Greyjoy, instead of the current Stark vs Lannister. Greyjoy is losing to Stark for sure, but in trying to figure out who loses in Stannis vs Lannister, I have a hard time seeing Lannister win (unless it's a HUGE fucking thing and they end up marginalizing how the story presents Melisandre as extremely powerful). And I don't know where they can go if they lose, would be sick as fuck if they all died, except Tyrion (and hopefully Bronn), who is required to Take the Black or something.
I also think that Stannis is using Melisandre. I think he knows what she's up to, that she's trying to use him, but he's actually using her. The whole him being too in love to see things clearly is almost a little too simplistic. I think even Davos doesn't have a clue that Stannis is playing her.
But then another look at Melisandre is that she's just a prop to get the story going. I would write her as completely foreign in every way (almost like she's the prophet/avatar of a god from a different planet), which would make her extremely powerful and able to do all sorts of sick and cunning shit (like possess people and make her own sort of army, which is where I thought they were going when the wraith showed up). But she's probably just a piece of magic that isn't super powerful, and gets crushed when the jig is up
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