Is Global Warming a Hoax?

[OngBonga]

Well if your argument is that 100% confidence = knowledge, and you've been wrong on at least one instance where you've had 100% confidence, your argument has been refuted.

Well I haven't been wrong about anything that I had 100% certainty about. That's because I haven't had 100% certainty that any given event will happen. I might have said I did, but only in a figure of speech context where I'm not taking into account the tiny probability of a solar flare destroying the world in an instant. I can't really think of much I do have 100% certainty in. The integirty of mathematics just happens to be one that I can think of. That I exist, that space and time exist, and that energy and matter exist, that I observe the present, that I have observed the past. These are other 100% certainties. I am also 100% certain that the future is observable, whether or not I can observe it. To think otherwise would be to assume this universe is mine and mine alone.

To predict the future is nearly impossible, but only because of the limitations of my understanding.

I can predict that any event that happens in the future will be bound by the laws of physics, and can theoretically be explained using mathematics. That's a prediction I'm comfortable making.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I am also 100% certain that the future is observable, whether or not I can observe it. To think otherwise would be to assume this universe is mine and mine alone.

Huh?

Hmm...

Wait, what again?

Hmm...

Not sure if that's profound or bone-headed.
Good one.

To predict the future is nearly impossible, but only because of the limitations of my understanding.

Come to physics. It's what we do, here.
Physics is the study of predicting the future (insofar as it can be predicted).

I can predict that any event that happens in the future will be bound by the laws of physics

Well... we do keep insisting that's what we do, here.

When some know-it-all comes along and points out to us that we were doing it wrong, we just say, "Thanks, nerd." and keep insisting that NOW we're doing it right.

and can theoretically be explained using mathematics. That's a prediction I'm comfortable making.

It's been working great so far.

Just don't let poopadoop near the universe control switches.

[Poopadoop]

Well I haven't been wrong about anything that I had 100% certainty about.

There's a whole literature showing that confidence doesn't necessarily correlate with accuracy. Eyewitnesses often express 100% confidence in identifying a criminal when they can be shown to be making a mistake.

Some people are 100% confident God exists. Others are 100% confident there's no such thing. Either one or the other of these groups must be wrong. Therefore, 100% confidence != knowledge.

To think you're above this human limitation is to lack humility.