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 Originally Posted by metaxy6
Thanks a lot for the input NoSocks - much appreciated. Welcome to the
forum.
In response to the question - I started tracking wagers throughout the day rather than just slapping everything down, because post odds tell me where the values were. Sound strategy?
Not only a sound strategy, but in reality, the ONLY way if you are actually trying to earn a profit. You can make a spot play without watching the board here and there, but if you do it consistently, you'll run yourself into trouble. Actually, I have stopped attending the races live (unless I want to head out just to enjoy it) because it's much easier to keep tabs on your wagers from home.
However, in addition to tracking the Win Odds (the odds which you can always see) you'll want to learn how to quickly determine MINIMUM place and show prices.
Since there are multiple payouts from the pools, the prices are actually dependent upon not only your horse, but also the horses that "place" or "show" with them. Therefore, you compute the minimum because it's the most sound way to make a decision -- if, in fact, some longshots run with your horse -- then you'll do even better.
First off, you'll need to find the WPS pools. They are all over the place, and not really that hard to obtain...
So, say the place pool is $46,700. Right off the top comes the track's "rake" -- also called a takeout. It generally ranges from 14-18% on WPS wagers, so 17% is a pretty good guideline. Therefore, $7,939 goes to the track.
So, now, there's $38,761 to be paid to the winners. Let's say your horse has $8,900 in his place pool. NOW, here's the somewhat tricky part: you want to pair your horse with the most favored horse in the pool. You do this because this is the WORST possible outcome. For the example, let's say that there's a horse with $16,000 in his place pool -- and that's the favorite.
Next step: because the winner's wagers are returned IN ADDITION to the payoff, you must subtract out the winning bets. So -- $38,761 minus $8,900 and $16,000, which leaves$13,861 to be distributed evenly amongst the place horses...OR, $6,930.50 to each winner.
Now, to determine how much each winning dollar on your horse gets, just divide the $6,930.5 into the $8,900 -- leaving approximately 77.8 cents on the dollar in profit. Since the base wager is generally $2, the profit will be about $1.55.
Just two more steps! Now, you add your $2 wager back in -- to get $3.55. FINALLY, you apply what's called breakage. Most tracks go by a 20 cent breakage, which means the payoff would be shown on the tote as $3.40. This is a concept that still persists from the days where everything was done by hand, and pennies would've hugely complicated the process. However, these days, some tracks have gone to a 10 cent breakage, and there's even talk of maybe someday eliminating it.
ALL IN ALL, this is important, because you have to know what kind of Place or Show bets you are making to determine whether or not it's wise. Once you know how to do this, you can knock out these calculations in mere seconds. Alternatively, if you are spreadsheet inclined, you can also compute them that way.
Originally Posted by metaxy6
I would definitely appreciate any insights - especially into betting strategies - since I don't expect to pick up handicapping anytime soon.
It got to be difficult - and I don't really expect to be putting enough $ in to make that time investment worthwhile. I posted links to the cappers -
A+ (software program, right?) and the various ones at Equibase, especially the Walker Group. Any others you would recommend?
I agree with you on this one. Probably best to stay with the pros, unless you are ready to invest some large time handicapping. Honestly, the people that handicap 10-15 minutes a race, and think they know what they are doing, are really doing a disservice to themselves.
As far as betting strategies, I generally apply a derivation of a progressive betting style. However, that really only works if you are a win bettor, because then you know your expected payoff.
I'll bet a sequence like this: $30/$30/$60/$60/$90/$90/$120 -- and if I miss seven races, I'll hang it up, and take my loss. The key to this, however, is that I RARELY bet horses under 3 or 4 to 1. For favorites, I'm not sure if something like this would really work.
The other option I also apply is common sense. I would suggest that you find some sort of computer handicapper that lists their PERCENTAGE chance of winning. Why? Because then you can compute the expected value of the wager, and determine whether or not it makes sense.
For example, if a capper thinks a horse will win 33% of the time, he's a breakeven prop at 2/1. Therefore, if you think the capper is good, and horse turns up at 3/1 or 7/2 -- you go forward with the wager. This is called an overlay.
Just like poker, the bigger the overlay, the more you bet. Now -- it's a give and take process, but after you master it, it's probably the best way to go.
Finally, when you are just starting, I would pretty much suggest a flat bet style. Just bet a unit a race, and try to turn a profit. As long as you attempt to maintain a minimum price (say 1/1 or 3/2, for example), it's pretty easy for you to know how the percentage you need to cash on to win.
Originally Posted by metaxy6
So, can selections that are landing ITM about 70% of the time pay?
What's the play at that clip? Their pool picks are 65% or better favorites. Am I right in concluding that Show wagers won't pay long-term? Is Win the better play? Does it depend on the odds?
As a guideline, I play horses this way (but this can change based on the place and show pools -- you always need to be aware of place and show pools that seem to differ from the win pools).
4/1 or below: win only -- generally, place and show just don't cut it on these horses, and they have a higher percentage shot of winning anyway.
4/1 to 8/1: win and place.
8/1 to 12/1: win and show.
above 12/1: across the board.
At 70% ITM, show will probably not turn you a profit, as you would need an average payout of $3 just to get you there. Place is also questionable, because you'd probably need $3.80 or $4 to bring you a profit.
In reality, betting strong win choices that you can catch at above even or 3/2 is probably the best chance of longterm profit on those selections. As I said above, it really helps to find computer-based selections, because you have a better idea of the "fair" price.
Originally Posted by metaxy6
Also - do you have any general guidelines for proportion of pool plays v multi-plays? Any suggestions for getting max value on multi's - like when to box (always?), when to throw in a longshot, or when to throw in a fav? Is this just way dependent on your read of the race?
The main problem with multiple horse wagers is that they are harder to value. The top three finishers could be 2/1, 5/2, and 5/1 in two consecutive races, and the trifecta might pay $100 in one race, and $400 in another.
In reality, there's only one method I've found to cracking these wagers: GET THE FAVORITE OUT. If you have a favorite anywhere in your multi-horse wager, it's almost always an underlay.
Personally, I'm not a big fan of the box. Say you like the 1-2-3 in a race. To box them in a $1 trifecta is $6. Now, that's not a bad play -- BUT -- I'd rather approach the race this way: 1-2/1-2-3/1-2-3-4. That's an $8 play, that allows you to add a horse for fourth. And, third place yields much more unexpected results than first, so it's something to consider.
Generally, I'll only play tris if I really like a horse or two that are longer odds, and then I'll mix them up to the field. Let's say I like the 1 and 2, who are not the favorites, and I don't really like the favorite. I'll play:
1-2/1-2/all
1-2/all/1-2
all/1-2/1-2
If I make dollar combinations, this will cost $36 in an 8 horse field. And, it's a good way to snag a good one.
Overall, there's a million ways to work these bets -- just think about other ways to "beat the box."
Originally Posted by metaxy6
I have a ton of questions and would encourage you to "blabber on" at length!
I hope this helped you more than it hurt, and always feel free to ask questions. I've done this way to long for my own good -- and I'll try to answer whatever questions you have.
Best,
EW
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