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Lessons from last night??
UNC: as soon as I clicked 'confirm,' I regretted it. They gave hope in the first half, which only made it sting...maybe the lesson is be careful picking small edge road teams in the majors against fundamentally solid teams (esp good d. and ft's).
Denver U: don't fall for the road dog in the mid's, even if the conference is just shaking out, also (what amounts to same thing) watch out for a home team that is desperate for a w.
Loyola Md: this would be a road dog lesson, since the home team had such a strong 2nd half surge...but mainly it's just a good pick that didn't work out. Only thing is that 3/4 of the $ was on Loyola, the line barely budged all day until 1o mins. before game time, when it got adjusted for all the wise guy $ getting dumped on Iona. Not a good sign. I saw the pick early and wanted to get on it before the line shifted - maybe it's a good idea to see what's happening before laying down $ in a conference you don't know too well.
So after a week of semi-serious NCAA betting (genuinely trying to make good picks, rather than just going by 'feel' or just taking someone's pick and running w/ it), I feel okay. I'm down barely .5 unit. I have a good grasp on the resources and have confidence.
I plan to focus on 2 conferences - the Big Sky and the MAC - get totally into their teams and trends, read the reports, game logs, and fan blogs. I'll keep a notebook of all the results - even the games I don't bet - and get a good sense of what's going on - then just get on the value when I see it.
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