New to something I want to learn badly

[chris1195]

I have been member of FTR for a while now even though i dont post alot , I do enjoy reading the post everyday . I am very interested in sports betting and have made few bucks following the FTR bettors. My question is how do you learn about the cappers you speak of or how do i learn what you are talking about when u say the public move the lines. Is there a book i can read or a website i can study? Forgive my stupidity but I really am new at the sports betting.

[ensign_lee]

It's allright. We all had to start somewhere.

To answer your questions:

"How do you learn about the cappers you speak of?"
This comes from experience of being able to sort through the crap at other forums and benefit from the work of other hard working handicappers that try everyone like we do here at FTR. Once you get a hang of what we're doing here, we'll share what we know about them with ya.

"What are you talking about when you say the public moves the lines?"
By this, we mean that the public has placed so many bets on one side of a game that the sportsbook has had to move the line in order to discourage action on that side of the game and encourage action on the other.

Example: Team A -4 vs. Team B . Public loves team A and for every bet on Team B, there are an accompanying 7 bets on Team A.

In order to balance the action, the sportsbook either changes the juice from Team A -4 (-110) to Team A -4 (-120) or something like that OR the sportsbook changes the line, perhaps to Team A -4.5 (-110) or -5 (-110).

Now, you'll hear some people reference here 'reverse line moves'. This is where the line moves in the OPPOSITE direction of where you would expect it to with all the public money on one side.

In the example above, rather than shifting the line to Team A -5 (-110) to discourage action on Team A and encourage action on Team B, the sportsbook changes the line to Team A -3 (-110), making it even MORE enticing to bettors. This is usually an indication that the books want more money on that side. Why? It could be that the sportsbook does it purposefully OR that some bettors (presumably sharp bettors) have placed so much money on the other side that in order to achieve balanced action, the sportsbook needs to attract more money on Team A.

Thus, reverse line movements tend to be big red flags; they also happen to be relatively rare, as books are usually in the busienss model of having balanced action on both sides of a game rather than 'gambling' by taking positions on games (with the possible exception of Pinnacle).

"Is there a book I can read or a website I can study?"
Unfortunately, there is a whole lot of crap floating around the internet regarding sports betting; lots of it is wrong; lots of it is outright maliciously misleading; lots of it is misguided; and some of it is good.

Now, you don't necessarily even have to believe me here (I could be spewing crap for all I know ), but I believe that the best way to learn about this is just to ask people that you trust and respect. I learned a lot of about this from doing so, as well as cutting my teeth on doing things, so if you have more questions, ASK! We don't have too many people here in teh sportsbetting portion of FTR yet, but the ones here are super-helpful.


So there you go: If you have more questions, ask! If we have the answers, we'll be sure to help you out.

[bigspenda73]

Welcome to the club Chris. My major advice to you, make sure you're properly bankrolled.

[zook]

My major advice to you, make sure you're properly bankrolled.

This is the most important advice. You should only be wagering 1 to 2% of your bankroll as your base unit. This might seem like a tiny amount, but there's a lot of variance in sports betting and edges are small. If have a small BR and you're looking to make money, I'd start with casino and poker bonus whoring. If you build your BR up a bit and want to make more money, dedicate yourself to poker. In my opinion, sports betting should be a side pursuit unless you have a huge BR. Even the best cappers don't have an edge of much more than 5%. I bet sports for fun, not expecting a profit (which I do playing poker). The NFL happens to have treated me very well the last two seasons, but I know that's because I'm running well, not because I'm a great handicapper.

As for books/websites, the only book I've read is Stanford Wong's "Sharp Sports Betting". It's a little outdated, but still a great read. Covers.com is a good website for stats and finding out who the public's betting. There are a lot of other websites out there but you have to wade through tons of crap to find good information.

Feel free to post any questions here and good luck!

[bigspenda73]

Yea, I've spoken with Lee about this before, and I am currently trying to build a larger roll by doing casino bonuses, only problem is the lack of sites still accepting US customers, especially those residing in Nevada. I am a bit guilty of improper br management. My unit is closer to 5% of my roll which is why I want to get some more money through casino whoring.

[zook]

Meh, 5% isn't horrible, as long as you don't make too many plays on any given day. And adjust your unit size if you take a big loss. Keep grinding at poker bigspenda, you'll make a lot more money doing that in the long-term than betting sports...

[chris1195]

I really appreciate the information. I see what you mean now about the public moving the lines.
I also read the BR thread as well and i understand that its important. I have been playing poker (and reading FTR) for little over a year now.

I had a decent roll but i spent alot of it so i am grinding my way back up. My current roll is about 370 so i guess my units would be about 7 dollars right?

So until i can get a decent roll again I`ll just enjoy your guys success . Oh and if you dont mind i may ride your coattails on a few wagers .

Thanks

Oh yea i wanted to ask you guys, what do you think of bodog? It still takes Us players and i play poker there alot latley. Is the sportsbook good?

[bigspenda73]

Bodog? Well I'm sure Lee can give better advice than me. From what I've read I think the sportsbook is trustworthy however I do not think they have as good of lines and juice as other online books.

[zook]

I haven't bet at Bodog but I've read that their lines/juice generally aren't as good as some other books. That's easy to check though. Pinnacle generally has the best juice, but occasionally not the best lines. If you're really serious about sportsbetting, it's crucial to have multiple accounts and shop for the best line.

[chris1195]

I am going to look into opening an account at pinnacle. Before I do i wanted to ask if someone here will get money if i use them as a ref. If so let me know.

[zook]

lee will pm you.

[swiggidy]

I am going to look into opening an account at pinnacle. Before I do i wanted to ask if someone here will get money if i use them as a ref. If so let me know.

Umm, you might want to wait on that. Read this
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-42866.htm

[chris1195]

Lee,
I was reading the Br managment thread and you said never risk more than 2.5% on a single bet. Is there a rule for the amount of bets you should place? For example is it ok to risk entire bankroll (or large chunk) on a days worth of betting as long as no bet is more than 2.5%?

[ensign_lee]

Hey Chris:

In answer to your question, you have to think about the reason that you have a bankroll in the first place: it is to mitigate the amount of exposure you have at any one time.

So if you're betting so much on one night that you have your entire bankroll out there at once (This would be 40 bets a night), then A) Usually, that's too many bets for one night. I don't know that there are really are 40 bets a night where you can find an edge and B) You should probably lower your unit size, since your market exposure is so big.

In general, the bigger your market exposure (the amount of your bankroll in play at any one time), the smaller your unit size should be. Of course, this should theoretically work in reverse as well, but I don't usually advocate the latter.

Make sense?

P.S. Did you get my PM earlier?

[chris1195]

Yea i understand. dont worry I was going to bet all of the bank roll in a day just curious if there was a rule. I mean 2.5% for one bet and no more than 10 percent out on bets at anygiven time. Something like that. I think i am thinking in poker terms .

My Br is currently 488 so i can place no more than say 12 on any one bet right?

Also yes i got your pm thanks. However I read the thread you sent swiggidy and i think i should open an account at matchbook first. I am currently at bodog since i play poker there, but i see that -110 isnt that good. I think i will play more poker to try to get a better bankroll then open an account.

Thanks for the help.

[chris1195]

can you guys tell me how you find out where public money is going? Is it a website such as covers.com? Also the respected cappers you guys speak of .......are they the cappers from those sites ?

Thanks

[bigspenda73]

Meh, one of the vets might PM you with the info. The public money is easy, go to sportsbook.com and look under betting trends. As far as the cappers go you might want to PM Zook or Lee...

[chris1195]

ok. thanks for the help.

I know i need to contribute alot more before being privy to the cappers lol.

I was just wondering if the ones you pay for on those sites are pretty much a waste of money.

again thanks for responding.

[bigspenda73]

ok. thanks for the help.

I know i need to contribute alot more before being privy to the cappers lol.

Def. some truth in that...

I was just wondering if the ones you pay for on those sites are pretty much a waste of money.

again thanks for responding.

I think they are. I think if you have the BR you should figure out a system and try it out and see how everything works out for ya. I would first post it here and see what some of the veteran guys think about it. I have still been tweaking mine and unfortunately the NFL is over. However, Im sure there is a system to be made for every sport.

[ensign_lee]

Don't pay for picks. And as long as you make an effort for a little while, then we'll give you info about 'the cappers', although these cappers don't necessarily do better than we do.

[chris1195]

good day guys
eagles win .5 unit (+270) m/l @pinnacle
won my first mtt... $180 profit

hell yea!!..

Ok now GO JETS. 1 unit (+126)m/l @ pinnacle

ok i will sit down figure out a strategy for my bets and begin a thread. i dont want to seem like a leech.

happy holidays all.

[zook]

Congrats on the MTT win! I really think you should be concentrating on poker... it's SOOO much more profitable than sportsbetting. Read books, FTR forums, post hands, play as much as you can. The only reason I bet on sports so much is that it doesn't take much time and still satisfies my need for action I don't bet sports knowing I can win if I do it right, like I do with poker.

As for being a leech, don't worry about it. We've all been there. The biggest thing is bankroll management. I know you didn't start with much, but don't start risking more because you won that tourney

[chris1195]

ok i am going to try this so please let me know if i am wrong.

FSU vs UCLA
Sportsbook.com says 77 percent on Ucla to cover- 5.5 yet the line moved to -3.
shouldnt the line go to -6 or -6.5? And if i am right, then using Lee`s formula should i play this for 5.5 units? (.5 unit against public at 77%, and 5 units for a 2.5 reverse line movement)

Am i way off base here?

[bigspenda73]

Wowza, the line dropped 2.5 pts over the week. I wasn't even looking into this game but now I am intrigued. Guess if there was a play it would be for FSU. Question is...why would the books drop it so much? Also, have you seen the total. It keeps going up even though the bets are pretty much even on the O/U

[bigspenda73]

Discount the part about the o/u. I read the line moves wrong. Still thinking about taking FSU m/l for what could be around +140-150 I believe. Should be value there as UCLA could be highly overrated and Florida State's staff knows they need this game for the sake of their jobs.

[chris1195]

yea i am new to this and wanted to see if i was reading all of it right.

however i would like to know why the line moved so much as well.

[chris1195]

ok well here goes my first indepedent bet.

FSU +2 (+124) 2 units@ pinnacle

couldnt lay down the 5.5 units yet. Have tp make sure i am getting the hang of this first.

Go FSU!!!

[ensign_lee]

Why are you getting +2?

2 is basically a dead number in football, especially in college football. If you're going to lay 2, you may as well just hit up the FSU Moneyline.

HOWEVER, the line is currently at +3.5. Why would you take +2?!?!?!

[chris1195]

HOWEVER, the line is currently at +3.5. Why would you take +2?!?!?![/quote]


Like i said I am new at this. +3.5 was going at (-111) and +2 was (+124).

I see what you mean now.

I will try to do better next time

[ensign_lee]

It's all good. Lessons learned.

[ShortStacked]

Just so I understand this also what your doing Lee is reading what the bookies want there customers to do and betting against that right? IE they want people to put money on FSU b/c too much is on UCLA so they push the lines around to make this happen. You however being a smart cookie notice this and bet against what the bookies want their clients to do. Is this right?

[chris1195]

i do believe that you are getting the point. I made a mistake tonight by not paying attention but live and learn right.

well its good to see another person here thats trying to learn like me so i dont feel like the new kid in class

[bigspenda73]

Just so I understand this also what your doing Lee is reading what the bookies want there customers to do and betting against that right? IE they want people to put money on FSU b/c too much is on UCLA so they push the lines around to make this happen. You however being a smart cookie notice this and bet against what the bookies want their clients to do. Is this right?

NO NO NO

YOU BET AGAINST WHAT THE BOOKIES WANT YOU TO DO!!!

sorry for the caps

[ShortStacked]

haha yup. I'm new here two. So far I've gone threw two rounds of cash. One time started with 100 left with 110. Next time started with 20 went to 70 left with 21. Now I'm on a fake BR with 1000 and hopefully I can jump in with a real 1000 soon.

As for me I put my money on UCLA m/l not that anyone here would approve of it, but I'm a slower learner than most. However when I understand something it sticks with me for life.

NO NO NO

YOU BET AGAINST WHAT THE BOOKIES WANT YOU TO DO!!!

sorry for the caps

ya thats what I believe I said. I understand that. So do you guys really take any sports consideration into the bets than? Or you rely on the bookie to tell you who they think will win?

[bigspenda73]

Just so I understand this also what your doing Lee is reading what the bookies want there customers to do and betting against that right? IE they want people to put money on FSU b/c too much is on UCLA so they push the lines around to make this happen.

Everything in bold=incorrect thinking

The books wanted no money whatsoever on FSU. That is why they made ucla LESS of a favorite. By doing this is will entice more money on a team that the public ALREADY perceives as good.

You however being a smart cookie notice this and bet against what the bookies want their clients to do. Is this right?

Yes, sorry I misread this the first time, you are correct sir.

[bigspenda73]

Or you rely on the bookie to tell you who they think will win?

They know a lot more than you, I, Lee, Zook, etc.. will ever know about these games.

[zook]

Or you rely on the bookie to tell you who they think will win?

They know a lot more than you, I, Lee, Zook, etc.. will ever know about these games.

True, but to be a winning capper you don't have to know more than the bookies, just more than the betting public.

[bigspenda73]

Or you rely on the bookie to tell you who they think will win?

They know a lot more than you, I, Lee, Zook, etc.. will ever know about these games.

True, but to be a winning capper you don't have to know more than the bookies, just more than the betting public.

If you feel the lines are perfectly fair everytime....

[bigspenda73]

Gotta give ya mad props Chris. Without dropping by your thread today I would have never seen the weird line movement in the game tonight. You won me 3 units bud. BIG UP to YA!!

[zook]

Or you rely on the bookie to tell you who they think will win?

They know a lot more than you, I, Lee, Zook, etc.. will ever know about these games.

True, but to be a winning capper you don't have to know more than the bookies, just more than the betting public.

If you feel the lines are perfectly fair everytime....

Bookies try not to take positions on at least 90% of games. Why would they? Setting a line that gets equal action on both sides = free money. Since they're generally not trying to predict the outcome of the game, just trying to get both sides bet equally, there's a variable to be exploited there, which is public perception. Which is why fading the public is a long-term winning strategy in most sports.

Congrats Chris! Nice call

[ShortStacked]

alright I see the objective now, just gotta learn how to harness it.

[chris1195]

Thanks guys. Finally feel like i contributed to this forum instead of just piggybacking you guys LOL.

Also went with NY knicks m/l last night for 2 units. Forgot to record it here so it doesnt count

[chris1195]

Ok i have a question about a game.

San antonio are -8 vs utah jazz.
70% of money on spurs to cover but only 38 % on M/L (wtf?)
covers.com says as many as four starters may be out for game for spurs. i assume this is public knowledge.

How would you treat this game? DONT touch it?


edit: just looked at sportsinsights and its pretty even on spread and m/l. so guess public is moving that way now.

[bigspenda73]

There will always tend to be more money on m/l favorites because you have to bet more money to win a unit . However, there tend to be more bets on the m/l dogs b/c little bets can turn a large profit

[chris1195]

ok so when looking at public betting and decided to place money against it, you only look at the spread bets then find best value for it?

[bigspenda73]

thats what i do

[chris1195]

cool thanks man.

[ensign_lee]

Ok i have a question about a game.

San antonio are -8 vs utah jazz.
70% of money on spurs to cover but only 38 % on M/L (wtf?)
covers.com says as many as four starters may be out for game for spurs. i assume this is public knowledge.

How would you treat this game? DONT touch it?


edit: just looked at sportsinsights and its pretty even on spread and m/l. so guess public is moving that way now.

My experience is ignore moneyline bet percentages.

[chris1195]

Ok Lee,
Tonights game cha vs LA lakers.

77% public on LA
Line has stayed at -5 for LA all day
And pinnacle has La -5 (+100) while all others are -5(-110)

using your formula should this be a 2 unit bet on charlette +5?
1 unit for public money on LA at 77
1 unit for a pinny lean

What if lines doesnt move how do u look at that? Not a reverse line movement but not going in right direction either.

Thanks for help.

[bigspenda73]

I think you worked through it well Chris. Now just sit back and watch.

[chris1195]

thanks. yea i think i got it now but i see lee put 2 units on ML.

so my question is why ML? why not take points? i know u can make more on ML but if its the underdog shouldnt u take points? or is this the gambling part of it ...go big win big.?

[bigspenda73]

Chris, I think Lee posted before that the spread only matters in NBA games something like 15% of the time. Ergo you are losing value if you bet the spread on underdogs. The only favorites that generally win but do not cover the spread are teams like DAL, SA, and Detroit.

[chris1195]

oh ok i think i got it . i think i am ready to start my own bet thread so i can show how much i really dont know

[chris1195]

ok char won tonight and so did NewOrl . So i made 4.5 units tonight.

I am happy about that but I see i could have won more by betting M/L on char.
I think i get this now. I will post all bets from now on. Not to give any advice but to let my bets be recorded. Any success I have i owe to Lee, zook, and Bigspenda. So here go guys......

[bigspenda73]

Nice hits tonight, guess I will have to start taking your advice from now on...

[ensign_lee]

Hey Chris:

Sorry I couldn't answer your questions personally before. I've been out all day with friends, so I didn't really have a chance to check the forums.

To answer your questions,

77% public on LA
Line has stayed at -5 for LA all day
And pinnacle has La -5 (+100) while all others are -5(-110)

Using what I wrote to size my bets earlier, this would be a 2 unit bet on Charlotte. However, I consider when Pinny holds a -111 and up a Pinny lean and not necessarily a -110. When they're holding -113 or -114 compared to the -110's out there, that's what I call a strong lean. -110's are 'iffy Pinny leans' to me.

What if lines doesnt move how do u look at that? Not a reverse line movement but not going in right direction either.

Still fiddling with this. If the line moves exactly like it should (i.e. 1.5 to 3.5 point line move on a game where the public is heavily on the favorite), then I'll either A) stay off it or B) ignore it. Still tweaking this. I think that you do sitll have an edge, but not as big of one as when the line stays the same or goes in the direction to encourage more action on the 'wrong' team.

so my question is why ML? why not take points? i know u can make more on ML but if its the underdog shouldnt u take points? or is this the gambling part of it ...go big win big.?

I think bigspenda addressed this. I believe that betting M/L dogs is more +EV in the long run because the spread only matters in about 12-15% of NBA games. By that, I mean that the favorite won, but didn't cover. All other games, if the favorite won, they covered the number and if the underdog won, they won straight up.

I believe this benefits me in two ways: 1) I get paid more when the underdog wins. This shoudl be self-explanatory. 2) I lose less when the underdog loses. Instead of losing 1.05 units on a bet with (-105) juice, I only lose 1 unit.

Obviously, I'm going to lose more games this way than had I taken teh points, but I believe in the long run, the cost savings (from losing less) and the extra winnings (from the plus juice) will offset any losses I incur from losing games where I would have won had the dog covered, but not won straight up.

I am happy about that but I see i could have won more by betting M/L on char.
I think i get this now. I will post all bets from now on. Not to give any advice but to let my bets be recorded. Any success I have i owe to Lee, zook, and Bigspenda. So here go guys......

Glad to hear you're understanding what I'm doing now. Have fun with this, and remember to never bet money you can't afford to lose.

And thanks for the kudos. Ego boosters are always great things.

Oh: and congrats on a good first night out!

[chris1195]

Hey Lee can you explain the pinny lean to me again. I see in the above post it seems like a lean is when pinny has a team at -111,--112 etc while others have it at -110. However in your from the ashes thread the utah example you had a pinny lean of+102. What am i missing?

[ensign_lee]

Hey Lee can you explain the pinny lean to me again. I see in the above post it seems like a lean is when pinny has a team at -111,--112 etc while others have it at -110. However in your from the ashes thread the utah example you had a pinny lean of+102. What am i missing?

You're going to have to give me more information. When did I say Pinny lean had +102?

[chris1195]

You wrote this in your from the ashes thread. In the example you said utah-2(+102).


So, for example, let's say that the game is Utah @ Portland. The spread opened at Utah -3. Later on, the game moves to Utah -2 while the public is on Utah at 74% or so. Pinnacle is holding Utah -2 (+102) while everyone else is holding a Utah -2 (-110) on this play. However, a respected handicapper has posted Utah -2 as one of his plays.

That would mean that this would be a 3 unit play (1 unit for against the public by 70+%, 2 units for reverse line move of a whole point, 1 unit for Pinny lean, -1 units for going against a respected handicapper).

[ensign_lee]

Okey doke.

Yeah. So in that example, the Pinny lean would be on Portland.

If Pinnacle is holding Utah -2 (+102), then that would mean they would also be holding Portland (-112), because Pinnacle always holds 10 cent spreads in basketball.

Make more sense now?

[chris1195]

yea got it now thanks.

[kingme620]

Nice hits tonight, guess I will have to start taking your advice from now on...

ummm...?