NFL WEEK 16

[frosst]

omg saturday night football sucks. they keep skipping the game to interview old comboys. wtf. and the commentary is horrible. but it's a good game......when they show it

[a500lbgorilla]

whaa? im watching shitty college football when nfl is on?

[UG]

I'm going to Arrowhead to see Chiefs vs. Dolphins tomorrow. They're free tickets (I had no less than four people trying to *give* me 2-4 tickets), and the sister-in-law and boyfriend are going too (this is his first NFL game and his favorite team is the Dolphins).

The high tomorrow is going to be eight degrees, with 30mph+ wind gusts, so wind-chills could be -30 or -40.

I have a nice house with a humongous TV in the living room. The Chiefs are terrible. What in the absolute fuck am I thinking?

[a500lbgorilla]

go and cheer for MIA

[bigspenda73]

Wow both D's are sick, both offenses miss huge chances, and Romo is the Grossmanesque.

[UG]

STUPID NFL NETWORK F U

[zook]

STUPID NFL NETWORK F U

[will641]

further proof that jerry jones sucks.

[ensign_lee]

STUPID EGOTISTICAL CABLE COMPANIES F U

fyp

NFL Network is the shit. Everyone should have it.

Also, GO GO GO GO GO GO TEXANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's make it a franchise best FIVE in a row!

[bode]

The high tomorrow is going to be eight degrees, with 30mph+ wind gusts, so wind-chills could be -30 or -40.

domes ftw!

[a500lbgorilla]

FTL

if your fans need to be pampered by temperate climates and an enjoyable atmosphere than your team obviously sucks balls!

[zook]

I'm sure this has been discussed before but I can't find the info... are there sites that stream nfl games online?

[drmcboy]

I'm going to Arrowhead to see Chiefs vs. Dolphins tomorrow. They're free tickets (I had no less than four people trying to *give* me 2-4 tickets), and the sister-in-law and boyfriend are going too (this is his first NFL game and his favorite team is the Dolphins).

The high tomorrow is going to be eight degrees, with 30mph+ wind gusts, so wind-chills could be -30 or -40.

I have a nice house with a humongous TV in the living room. The Chiefs are terrible. What in the absolute fuck am I thinking?

at least you aren't a Browns fan!

[Lukie]

I'm going to Arrowhead to see Chiefs vs. Dolphins tomorrow. They're free tickets (I had no less than four people trying to *give* me 2-4 tickets), and the sister-in-law and boyfriend are going too (this is his first NFL game and his favorite team is the Dolphins).

The high tomorrow is going to be eight degrees, with 30mph+ wind gusts, so wind-chills could be -30 or -40.

I have a nice house with a humongous TV in the living room. The Chiefs are terrible. What in the absolute fuck am I thinking?

at least you aren't a Browns fan!

[yourfather]

I'm sure this has been discussed before but I can't find the info... are there sites that stream nfl games online?

There might be better sites idk but channelsurfing.net is aight.

[Lukie]

tilt tilt tilt

situation: down by 14 late in the game, you score a touchdown.

STUPIDLY EASY DECISION TO GO FOR 2, YET NO COACH EVER DOES (just happened in atl/min game)

whywhywhywhywhy

24-18 if you make it, you win with another TD
24-16 if you don't make it, you tie with a TD and 2 pointer

[a500lbgorilla]

i fail to see how that's a stupidly easy decision. 24-16 if you don't mate it, you lose with a TD and failed 2 pointer.

[bigred]

hahaha, patriots in good shape.

They win, jets lose.

We need a jets win next week or a baltimore loss.

[ensign_lee]

tilt tilt tilt

situation: down by 14 late in the game, you score a touchdown.

STUPIDLY EASY DECISION TO GO FOR 2, YET NO COACH EVER DOES (just happened in atl/min game)

whywhywhywhywhy

24-18 if you make it, you win with another TD
24-16 if you don't make it, you tie with a TD and 2 pointer

This makes no sense. Two point conversions usually succeda t about a 45% rate.

So simple EV calculation,

2 (# of instances) * .45 (two point conversion success rate) * 2 (number of points for a successful 2 point conversion try) = 1.8 points on average for trying for two twice in that situation.

2 (# of instances) * .9999999 (PAT success rate) * 1 (number of points for successful PAT) = ~2.

I fail to see why that would be an awesome decision to go for it.

[bigspenda73]

thx for not showing up today Schaub

FACK

at least the Titans smacked the Steelers so the day is not a total loss.

[swiggidy]

Part of this eV is the actual win %. 45% you make the first one and win, 30% you fail at both and lose. 25% you tie and go into overtime, lets assume that's 50/50.

45 + 12.5/2 => 57.5% you win

Are your odds that good starting overtime before the coinflip?

[Lukie]

tilt tilt tilt

situation: down by 14 late in the game, you score a touchdown.

STUPIDLY EASY DECISION TO GO FOR 2, YET NO COACH EVER DOES (just happened in atl/min game)

whywhywhywhywhy

24-18 if you make it, you win with another TD
24-16 if you don't make it, you tie with a TD and 2 pointer

This makes no sense. Two point conversions usually succeda t about a 45% rate.

So simple EV calculation,

2 (# of instances) * .45 (two point conversion success rate) * 2 (number of points for a successful 2 point conversion try) = 1.8 points on average for trying for two twice in that situation.

2 (# of instances) * .9999999 (PAT success rate) * 1 (number of points for successful PAT) = ~2.

I fail to see why that would be an awesome decision to go for it.

You succeed in writing equity calculations but fail at applying them.

Of course if you convert the first attempt, you are going to kick the extra point the second time. EV of points isn't what we are trying to maximize; probability of winning the game IS.

Using your numbers of 45% for 2 pt success (which seems a tad low, although it's surprisingly hard to find a reliable number) and 100% extra point success rate (tweaking this down a bit obviously serves to prove my point even more, but I'll ignore it for now)

win by going for 2 on try 1 and picking PAT on try 2: 45% [.45*1]

overtime by going for 2 and missing it, but converting for 2 on the second try: 24.75% [.55*.45]

loss by failing on both 2 pt attempts: 30.25% [.55*.55]


ASSuming that we are assigning a *roughly* equal probability of winning in overtime and no extenuating circumstances (such as significant amount of time left on the clock where the other team could drive down for a FG if they are down by 1), this is a no-brainer decision.

[frosst]

<3 titans. steelers finally got some negative variance. now i need the panthers to win so i can get money!!!!

[bigspenda73]

loooool sick post-game press conference for the Lions

[a500lbgorilla]

Lukie, Football is high variance and it's only a 16 game season + single eliminate playoff. Fighting for such a small edge at the price of high variance seems retarded. Especially considering the variance can be as high as to include your job.

Why not just get the first 7 and take the gamble on the 2nd TD?

[WildBobAA]

I went to the Lions game and drove through a fucking blizzard to see them lose 42-7

[bigspenda73]

loooool sick post-game press conference for the Lions

to elaborate, a reporter asked Marinelli to elaborate on his def. coordinator's performance and job security. Rod decided to only talk about himself, which is 100% std. and PISSES ME OFF.

So, the reporter finally did what we all wanted him to do. He pestered Marinelli endlessly saying "stop talking about you I want to know about the def. coordinator and why he's still employed, etc.." I thought it was great because these people are allowed to dodge questions so easily.

Anyways, Marinelli still never responded about the def. coordinator and at the end of the interview the reporter that something fucking stupid about Rod and whatever his relationship is with someone's daughter (sorry don't follow the Lions Bob can clue us in) totally tarnishing the fact that this guy actually stood up and demanded a coach give the world a straight-forward answer.

[Lukie]

Lukie, Football is high variance and it's only a 16 game season + single eliminate playoff. Fighting for such a small edge at the price of high variance seems retarded. Especially considering the variance can be as high as to include your job.

Why not just get the first 7 and take the gamble on the 2nd TD?

I think you are mistaken.. it's actually a quite significant edge in the context of this exact situation. Also keep in mind that we are most likely going to lose this game in this situation anyway.. not maximizing the probability of a comeback win is a shame, IMO. Re: job security, I actually agree with you on, but only because the media/fans (and likely most coaches) don't properly understand this situation.

Re: variance: I'm not quite sure how to quantify this, but given the nature of NFL overtime (sudden death, coin toss to decide possession), I'm not inclined to agree with you.

[WildBobAA]

loooool sick post-game press conference for the Lions

to elaborate, a reporter asked Marinelli to elaborate on his def. coordinator's performance and job security. Rod decided to only talk about himself, which is 100% std. and PISSES ME OFF.

So, the reporter finally did what we all wanted him to do. He pestered Marinelli endlessly saying "stop talking about you I want to know about the def. coordinator and why he's still employed, etc.." I thought it was great because these people are allowed to dodge questions so easily.

Anyways, Marinelli still never responded about the def. coordinator and at the end of the interview the reporter that something fucking stupid about Rod and whatever his relationship is with someone's daughter (sorry don't follow the Lions Bob can clue us in) totally tarnishing the fact that this guy actually stood up and demanded a coach give the world a straight-forward answer.

Marinelli's daughter is married to the defensive coordinator, Joe Barry. What happened was the reported (Rob Parker) asked Marinelli if he wished that his daughter had married a better defensive coordiator.

Marinelli is a terrible football coach but he has accepted all the blame for the Lions' situation. For a reporter to go after his family during a public press conference is totally fucking ridiculous.

Most of you probably don't know Rob Parker by name but would probably recognize him if you saw him because he's a frequent guest on ESPN's First Take (one of the guys that debates Skip Bayless). Basically he's a huge racist deucebag with a track record. I certainly hope he loses his job at the Detroit News for this latest incident.

Here's the OT video:
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2008/12/21/r...-law-as-defen/

[WildBobAA]

And Lukie: you're right but you answered your own question. It's all about a coaches job security. The vast majority of people are too dumb to understand why going for 2 is better in that situation. In sports, probability exists but most people are too stupid to realize it and if coach makes a move that doesn't work, most people (because most people are stupid) are going to assume that the coach made the wrong move even if the decision was the most "+Win EV" one.

[WildBobAA]

Why not just get the first 7 and take the gamble on the 2nd TD?

Probability of winning using this method = 45%
Probability of winning using Lukie's method = 57.375%

Thank you for posting this because it allows me to rant on one of my biggest pet peeves in all of football. Assume a team has the ball and is down by 15 points late in the game and scores a TD. What's going to happen everytime? THE COACH IS GOING TO KICK THE EXTRA POINT EVERY SINGLE TIME EVEN THOUGH HE SHOULD BE GOING FOR TWO. Seriously, it's so fucking stupid. If you score another TD you're either going to convert the two point conversion and have a tie game or you're going to miss it and need another possession. BUT YOU DON'T KNOW IF YOU NEED ANOTHER POSSESSION UNTIL AFTER YOU ATTEMPT THE TWO POINT CONVERSION WHICH WILL LEAVE VERY LITTLE TIME ON THE CLOCK SO WHY DON'T YOU JUST GO FOR TWO AFTER THE FIRST TD SO YOU KNOW MUCH EARLIER WHETHER OR NOT YOU NEED A 3RD POSSESSION OR NOT. UNREAL

[WildBobAA]

They should just hire people like me and Lukie to figure out the probabilities for every situation and determine what the correct move is.

[bigspenda73]

going for 2 tips your hand on the kick off Bob

[Lukie]

Why not just get the first 7 and take the gamble on the 2nd TD?

Probability of winning using this method = 45%
Probability of winning using Lukie's method = 57.375%

Thank you for posting this because it allows me to rant on one of my biggest pet peeves in all of football. Assume a team has the ball and is down by 15 points late in the game and scores a TD. What's going to happen everytime? THE COACH IS GOING TO KICK THE EXTRA POINT EVERY SINGLE TIME EVEN THOUGH HE SHOULD BE GOING FOR TWO. Seriously, it's so fucking stupid. If you score another TD you're either going to convert the two point conversion and have a tie game or you're going to miss it and need another possession. BUT YOU DON'T KNOW IF YOU NEED ANOTHER POSSESSION UNTIL AFTER YOU ATTEMPT THE TWO POINT CONVERSION WHICH WILL LEAVE VERY LITTLE TIME ON THE CLOCK SO WHY DON'T YOU JUST GO FOR TWO AFTER THE FIRST TD SO YOU KNOW MUCH EARLIER WHETHER OR NOT YOU NEED A 3RD POSSESSION OR NOT. UNREAL

I've thought about this before as well, and I agree 100%.

[Lukie]

They should just hire people like me and Lukie to figure out the probabilities for every situation and determine what the correct move is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernie_Adams

[Lukie]

I cannot stand Tony Kornheiser anymore (ok, ever).

I swear the only words in the guy's vocabulary are 'Brett' and 'Favre'. It seems like every week, he finds a way to bring him up on multiple occasions. With the pack playing, this week was obviously no exception.

[Lukie]

Lukie, Football is high variance and it's only a 16 game season + single eliminate playoff. Fighting for such a small edge at the price of high variance seems retarded. Especially considering the variance can be as high as to include your job.

Why not just get the first 7 and take the gamble on the 2nd TD?

For the record, I just figured you were joking/leveling on the second part.

[Lukie]

It seems like everyone in Cleveland can't wait to get Crennel out of town, and the opinion of Savage is pretty mixed.

Who put together this dysfunctional band of losers?

I'm kind of the opposite.. I *really* hope onion skinned Savage gets the boot.

My prediction: Crennel fired, Savage stays but loses final-say over the roster

[mcatdog]

Lukie, Football is high variance and it's only a 16 game season + single eliminate playoff. Fighting for such a small edge at the price of high variance seems retarded.

Is this a level? Playing for overtime doesn't decrease variance, it merely postpones it, as we all know OT is a giant crapshoot anyway. How is it possible to decrease variance in a game where the only outcomes are a win or a loss?

[mixchange]

I cannot stand Tony Kornheiser anymore (ok, ever).

I swear the only words in the guy's vocabulary are 'Brett' and 'Favre'. It seems like every week, he finds a way to bring him up on multiple occasions. With the pack playing, this week was obviously no exception.

I cannot agree more vehemently.

[Alibi]

from nfl.com

"Chicago didn't look like a playoff team Monday night -- until overtime. "

what the hell does that even mean? they got a horsecollar call that set up a field goal..

[a500lbgorilla]

I got hosed in this thread. But my point for the high variance of football and "playing for overtime" or waiting for the second TD to go for 2 was this: There are maybe 2 owners in the league that understand what makes a good coach. If you go against the grain say twice in one season and both times they fail, you're fcked. And you're fcked for your job. There's just an element of ingame-strategy that if it fails it makes you look like a huge fool to those who don't know better.