*** OFFICIAL BREXIT SUNLIT UPLANDS and #MEGA THREAD ***

[Poopadoop]

COVID response:

I note your next post argues population density isn't a factor. I find that really hard to believe. Does that not strike you as odd? We're talking about a highly contagious virus. The closer you are on average to other people, the more chance you have of catching it. Densely populated areas must be at greater risk, it makes no sense to say otherwise.

Yes, it surprised me. But to me it suggests that pop density is dwarfed by other factors. Take S. Korea, which is a model for pandemic response. They are more densely populated than the UK, but they went in hard and fast from the beginning - no fucking around. And when you nip it in the bud this way, it doesn't get the chance to spread.

It doesn't matter how crowded your country is, if only 1/million has the virus to begin with and you find all their contacts and make sure they isolate, the virus isn't going to spread. OTOH, if 1/100 people have it, it's impossible to effectively contain it.

If no country had taken any measures, then pop. density would probably be a very strong predictor. But some took much more effective measures as others. Like I said, if it doesn't get a hold in your country to begin with, it's not going to spread no matter how dense the population is.

Obviously there are many more factors though, such as the health system, PPE, lockdowns, and the attitude of the population, to name a few.

The health system is for keeping people alive once they get it, not so much for containing the spread.

PPE: You could also argue our gov't failed on that. Even now I don't think students are made to wear masks in school. Wtf, seriously. It's a year on...

Lockdowns already talked about. If you wait till the disease is rampant it shouldn't surprise you it takes a while to start to contain it with lockdowns. That's why the experts kept telling them early, sharp lockdowns are better than late, long ones. cf, NZ and AUS for examples of countries that go into lockdown the moment someone sneezes - pretty good at keeping death rates down and having a relatively normal life.

Attitude of pop: This has to start from the top. In the first lockdown last spring, if you went out the streets were virtually deserted. In the last two, there's suddenly a lot more people out and about. Wtf are they all doing? There's nowhere they can legally go besides the supermarket ffs. Maybe a few are going to the dentist, but half the population? Fuck off.

I put this down to a combination of two things: 1) lockdown fatigue - which is the gov'ts fault because they keep delaying lockdowns till it's too late, resulting in longer lockdowns; and 2) gov't setting a bad example - if Cummings can drive to visit his relatives in lockdown with a wife who has covid and not get sacked for it, wtf should I sit in my house all day? Both of those things are problems created by the gov't.

We were stricter than Sweden, with a worse per capita death rate. I put that down to density.

Maybe. Or maybe SWE doesn't have as many visitors tramping through it's airports as we do. That might be a reason too.

I'd like to think this is the prime lesson to be learned. Next time there's a dodgy virus on the other side of the world, we immediately restrict travel from infected areas, and if it seems a pandemic is happening, we just shut the borders completely. As an island, this would be a powerful weapon against a virus. Chances are it will already be in the country by the time we realise how dangerous it is, but maybe we can get on top of it before it spreads.

Once it's rampant amongst the population, travel restrictions won't do much.

Agree. And it's not like we were the only country who did poorly in that respect. Still, just because other countries are also being dumb doesn't make it excusable.

Corruption. It was never intended to work, and probably wouldn't have worked even if it was perfect. £37b spent on it apparently. That's not incompetence, that's a blatant fraud.

Sure, but apparently they can get away with it because they're just as popular as in 2019.

In the early days, this is understandable. Nobody really knew what was going to happen. Information is dynamic. Ministers can get conflicting scientific advice. Scientists might change their opinions on how best to deal with it. It should be clear and consistent, but I'm unconvinced anyone else could have done better in this regard.

I think you mean "would have done better." And it's irrelevant 'cause we'll never know. And it's a poor argument because there were experts saying exactly what you need to do, there were countries in Asia doing it, and we ignored that advice. Tbf, most of the West ignored it too, but we ignored it more and for longer.

This is because we've taken risks others were not willing to take. We also look good here because the EU have made such a mess of this, and naturally people are comparing the UK to the EU.

The EU was slow and careful, we were fast and risky. The fact we rolled the dice and won could be counted as a victory I guess, but it could also have gone badly tits up.

The EU also had a factory that had to be shut down. Don't think that's their fault that happened.

I obviously do not think the UK's response has been effective. Clearly it hasn't. But who is to blame for that is not a simple question to answer, and assuming another party would have done better is just wishful thinking. I definitely do not think Corbyn would have done better, not least because his own party hated him, which would have made governing the country very difficult indeed. And Starmer seems like just another Blair.

Again, it's irrelevant if someone else would have done better, because someone else was not in charge. So we'll never know.

You can only judge the people who were in charge and compare to them to people who were in charge elsewhere. And in that respect, our gov't has done pretty poorly, even compared to other places in the West.