Assuming he was there to meet some dark figures from GSK, just why? Why not do a Zoom meeting? Or, shuttle up there in the backseat of a car, then shuttle right back before he was even missed?
Zoom isn't secure. And if he's seen being shady, that's a lot more suspect than being seen with his family.

Apparently Boris was seen in ITA over the weekend too, so probably not wanking off from work like he did for the COBRA meetings, but obv. meeting with his Italian contacts at GSK.
Boris' old man has a place in Italy. I find it far more likely he was having a break. idk what he was doing in Italy, it could be dodgy business, but it seems unlikely because I'm not aware of any Italian vaccine deal or anything like that being announced since his visit.

It is amusing how you assume everyone in power who is being an idiot is doing it as part of some cunning mastermind 3D chess plan, instead of just being an idiot. No matter how many times they do it.
Cummings is a sample size of one. Hardly "everyone".

Ugh, do I have to explain margin of error to you again? And while I'm at it, explain how bookies make their odds? It's not based on polls, it's based on how people are betting.
To a degree, yes. Though bookies are not immune to corruption... they could be paid a backhander to fiddle the odds. And of course, peoples' betting when it comes to politics is influenced by... drumroll please... polls.