Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
Where do you suspect the probability is introduced to the equation?

Facts:

Rural counties, having smaller operations, were able to report their votes quicker.
Urban counties, having much more unwieldy operations, took longer to count and report their votes.
Mail in ballots were counted last.
Mail in ballots post marked by, but received after 11/3 have been segregated pending the outcome of pending legal disputes.

The first group skews Trump.
The latter groups skews Biden.

Where do you see probability coming into this?
The question is how much these factors can cause a swing like we're seeing. 300k is a fuckton of votes to claw back. Even if Biden is outperforming Trump in the cities, Trump still gets votes. Even if mail ballots favour Biden, they can't all be for him. And we're not seeing these kind of swings across the country, just in these contentious states.

I'm not kidding when I say I'm basing my opinion off the odds fluctuating. That's the least biased source I'm aware of. It's an aggregate of the betting public's opinion. And if Trump's odds are getting shorter, then I'm led to believe that some people think he has a solid case. I don't know what that case is, but I'm not going to question those putting their money where their mouth is. I'll just grab the popcorn.