*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[Poopadoop]

Before the yale data, you could have deported everyone and expected to save 100 lives. But now you know that exporting all the illegals would save TWICE that many people.

This is problematic for a number of reasons.

First, the assumption is made that the murder rate is equal among illegal immigrants and everyone else. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.

But more importantly, assuming an equal murder rate, you could lower the total number of murders by reducing the population in any number of ways. E.g., deporting any number of randomly chosen people, deporting anyone over 50, deporting all legal immigrants, or (eventually) by lowering the birthrate to zero so the population dies off.

So, if you randomly deport half of the US, you will have half the number of murders. Half the murder rate!

This is why murder rates are typically reported as x per 100,000 people.

What you've also forgotten to do is incorporate the fact that the census-reported population of (let's say) 330 million doesn't count illegals. So either you have 330+11 =341m people with x number of murders, or you have 330+22 =352m people with x murders. And with the larger number, the murder rate/100k is actually lower than with the smaller number. That's not an argument in favour of illegal immigration, but it does make a difference in any arguments about how dangerous illegals may or may not be (which actually depends on their intrinsic murder rate, not the national murder rate, but w/e).

[TheSpoonald]

This is why murder rates are typically reported as x per 100,000 people.

Yeah, but you can't do that unless you know how many 100,000's there are, which you don't. So the rate is bunk.

What you've also forgotten to do....

Census data does include illegals. It's currently illegal to ask citizenship data on the census. So the illegals are included in total headcount. We just don't know how to differentiate them from the native population. The 330M remains constant.

And even if your math is right, which it isn't, my point to MMM would still be correct. And that point was that the yale data means that the number of crimes committed by illegal immigrants is higher than you thought.

[Poopadoop]

Yeah, but you can't do that unless you know how many 100,000's there are, which you don't. So the rate is bunk.

Nor do you know the exact number of murders, so there.

So you estimate number of murders, then you estimate population, then you calculate murders / 100k.

Census data does include illegals. It's currently illegal to ask citizenship data on the census. So the illegals are included in total headcount. We just don't know how to differentiate them from the native population. The 330M remains constant.

There are definitely people who don't show up on the census though, right? Are these more likely to be legals or illegals?

And even if your math is right, which it isn't, my point to MMM would still be correct. And that point was that the yale data means that the number of crimes committed by illegal immigrants is higher than you thought.

Sure, and if there's more blue-eyed people in the country than you thought, the number of crimes committed by blue-eyed people is higher than you thought. Doesn't mean any given blue-eyed person is more dangerous than they were before you got better at counting them.