I'd say you would be right if "approval" was the same thing as "will vote for". Lots of people disapprove yet still vote for.

Also, it's important to note that reasoning from a statistic can only tell us so much. We have to also ask questions like how it makes sense given what we know about the topic. There is a very strong case to be made, which BStand alluded to, that the approval polls are not capturing any meaningful less-good-feel about Trump. Like we discussed yesterday, most people who voted for him are happy and a chunk who normally vote Republican yet didn't vote for him have warmed up. Personally, I have several friends who did not vote for him because they thought he was an ass, but my read on them is that they are likely to vote for him in 2020.



On an unserious note, let's do correlations! Reagan passed major tax cuts in his first year and won in every state except Cuckisota and the District of Cuckumbia. That means Trump will gain bunches of votes! Another correlation! Presidents don't lose reelection when the economy is doing very well.