Quote Originally Posted by poop
The next great superpower will be China regardless of what happens in space.
I think you're being hasty by dismissing the impact space control will have. If China become more powerful than USA next year, then USA "take control" of space in the context of being able to go there at will, and stop others from doing so, then USA reclaim their status as the most powerful.

They don't need to fight any wars or control space to gain that status
You think USA will just roll over? China already engaged in an economic war with USA, and it's not out of the question that it's further escalated than we're aware of. Their numbers mean nothing, other than we can't invade them. But this isn't the 1900s where invading a country was the way to defeat them. Regime change and enforced US-friendly democracy is the modern way.

And the Chinese are certainly not going to invade USA, you're right to observe there's nothing for China to gain. What China want is to hurt USA economically. But they also need to be able to stop USA hurting them economically if they are to remain more powerful, and that's why space is important, both from a military pov and an economic one.

We're talking 50-100 years here before space is the prime factor when it comes to the balance of power, imo.