*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[OngBonga]

I'm more interested in their behaviour than numbers. I'm not expecting to see blue haired freaks shouting at the sky, nor do I expect to see someone's hardware store get trashed.

[CoccoBill]

If the dems had been able to cheat their way into presidency, why not grab a couple extra senate seats too, since now they'll be cockblocked trying to accomplish anything.

[MadMojoMonkey]

There comes a point where even if there was fraud, it isn't effecting the outcome of the election. If they pulled off this big a scam, they will surely get caught. If we were talking about one state, it's quite within the realms of possibility for fraud to win an election, but it gets exponentially harder with every state you have to fiddle.

You mean like if a candidate lost the popular vote, but won the election and it was later revealed that candidate had known about interference in the US election process by foreign nations, and either encouraged and supported this or at best did nothing to stop it, since it was in his favor?

Like if that happened and the result of the election came down to a difference of 500 votes in a state with a lot of electoral votes, like, oh Florida - just to pick one at random?

[Poopadoop]

Hmm...only a few hundred at the MAGA Million March today. Guess the other 999,000 + were busy.

Trump drove right through them on his way to the golf course lol. So much for rallying the people to the cause of democracy and fair elections.

[OngBonga]

Did anyone get shot yet?

[oskar]

Dude, they think they're winning. These are not smart people.

[Poopadoop]

Did anyone get shot yet?

Not yet, but some stabbings.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/11/prou...-protests.html

[OngBonga]

Ad block paywalled, so it didn't happen.

[OngBonga]

Thought I go and check out Twitter to see what I can find. Antifa is trending but proud boys isn't. I saw one video of a MAGA twat getting into a scuffle with like ten antifa twats. The MAGA guy was winning, it got to the point nobody wanted to go near him, but he turned his back on them like a clown. Sucker punch, dropped like a stone. From what I can tell, the proud twats are responding to antifa violence, but I guess it depends who fills your timeline.

[oskar]

Antifa is trending but proud boys isn't.

Hard hitting research, as always, Ong.

[oskar]

I'm tuning out of the news atm. I reckon shit won't hit the fan until inauguration. I don't see Trump conceding. He might physically leave the White House, but I think he'll encourage his supporters to a show of force during Biden's inauguration... esp since inauguration crows size was one of his main issues until about year 3 of his presidency.

[OngBonga]

Hard hitting research, as always, Ong.

Nice to see you giving me the respect I deserve, cheers.

[Poopadoop]

That proud boy was just swinging at random people afaict - he hit a girl at one point. Finally he got his comeuppance.

[OngBonga]

That proud boy was just swinging at random people afaict - he hit a girl at one point. Finally he got his comeuppance.

I dunno about the full context of this incident, but there's no pussy pass when shit hits the fan. If you're too fragile to take a fist to the face, don't approach the angry man.

Don't get me wrong, I despise violence against women. But women who are actively trying to fight men, you can't do that and then play the pussy card.

[Poopadoop]

Trump... should rally his supporters into taking defeat with grace

Any day now, I'm sure he will.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...00072987893762

[MadMojoMonkey]

Never go full Farquaad.

[OngBonga]

Any day now, I'm sure he will.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...00072987893762

I literally laughed when I saw this tweet. He's fucking baiting the Twitter mob here. He just wants his notifications to explode to remind himself he's still relevant. I should be a shrink. And a political advisor.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Trump is still the clear leader of the Republican party and his supporters love him.

I just can't understand how they get past the fact that he's an obvious charlatan that has allowed more American deaths on his presidency than died in WWII while not activating any federal response, but rather blaming past presidents and the governors for the inadequate response, and blaming doctors and testing for the dead bodies.

Among many, many other things.

[oskar]

Just checking in on top mind Scott Adams, who predicted a landslide Trump win:

[Poopadoop]

Wonder if Wuf is still drinking the Digbert KoolAid.

[Poopadoop]

Trump is only 16:1 on Betfair, so it's still possible Adams will be right. Not sure about the "landslide" bit.

[OngBonga]

He's 15/1. If the decimal odds are 16, the fraction odds are 15/1.
16 just means you get 16 dollars back on the dollar, which is 15 profit to your 1 bet.

[Poopadoop]

Ok cool thanks.

And hey, the next president losing the popular vote is getting higher odds than Trump winning, 20:1. So at least some of the MAGAtards are hedging their bets that there won't be SO much fraud that he'll end up winning the popular vote too.

And Oskar says they're stupid! Pfffft.

[Poopadoop]

DJTJ covid +

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55024888

[boost]

Ong, do you get that Trump is running a "rigged election" grift yet?

[OngBonga]

I've pretty much lost interest in the US election. All I can say is this... if the Dems cheated, I hope they don't succeed in stealing the election. If they didn't cheat, I hope Trump does not succeed in stealing the election. As for who actually won the election, I haven't a clue and neither does anyone here.

[Poopadoop]

You know who does know who won the election? The people who counted the votes.

[OngBonga]

That's ridiculous. It's not like one person counted the votes, which of course you know because you say "people" not "person".

[Poopadoop]

Whatever. Trump lost despite your philosophical objections that we can never know anything for sure.

[OngBonga]

You phrase that in a way that implies I have a horse in the race. I don't.

But he hasn't lost yet.

[boost]

Ong, he lost. Lots of people know. Trump himself knows. I know. Here's how:

His lawyers claims at press conferences are horribly out of line with their claims in court. In court there are actually repercussions for lawyers that tell tall tales. Judges have asked if they have any evidence of fraud or if they are even charging fraud and when cornered they have been forced to say no.

There is absolutely no evidence that any sort of widespread fraud took place. We have a dispersed election system, run locally, and the officials tasked with running some of these elections are themselves staunch republicans. It's not just one massive conspiracy that would need to have been pulled off with no trace, but many massive conspiracies.

I'll give it to you, if I get rid of my bias, there was a shred of a possibility on 11/4-- but there is absolutely not reason to suspect the election was stolen at this point. If you're simply a zealous general agnostic, then fine-- but if you think that the results of American elections are generally reliable, then you've guzzled the kool-aid on this one.

[OngBonga]

but if you think that the results of American elections are generally reliable, then you've guzzled the kool-aid on this one.

Surely you meant to say "unreliable" here.

Like I say, I've lost interest. I've not been following this, so if you insist his lawyers are refusing to say they have proof in court, I accept that and it is quite compelling.

But then again, Trump is currently 13/1, so there's that. Maybe you're missing something?

[boost]

Surely you meant to say "unreliable" here.

Like I say, I've lost interest. I've not been following this, so if you insist his lawyers are refusing to say they have proof in court, I accept that and it is quite compelling.

But then again, Trump is currently 13/1, so there's that. Maybe you're missing something?

You're a fun troll or a stubborn idiot.

[Poopadoop]

Ong thinks there is some hidden wisdom amongst the type of people who bet on presidential elections/coups. Like, they have some inside knowledge the rest of us are lacking. It's a sexier thing to believe than that there's simply a lot of idiots out there who have no clue what is going on when they bet and just bet on what they hope is true.

[OngBonga]

You're a fun troll or a stubborn idiot.

Can't I be both?

[OngBonga]

Ong thinks there is some hidden wisdom amongst the type of people who bet on presidential elections/coups. Like, they have some inside knowledge the rest of us are lacking. It's a sexier thing to believe than that there's simply a lot of idiots out there who have no clue what is going on when they bet and just bet on what they hope is true.

They have more knowledge than I do, and it's more reliable than biased news because it's an aggregate of the betting public, rather than just one side.

[Poopadoop]

They have more knowledge than I do

So do we but you don't listen to us.

it's an aggregate of the betting public

Right, 'cause the average punter has such a deep understanding of probability theory.

Last I checked the betting public was not very good at predicting things. What were the odds on Brexit being given the day of the referendum? Wasn't it like 4:1 remain?

[OngBonga]

So do we but you don't listen to us.

You guys are biased.

Last I checked the betting public was not very good at predicting things. What were the odds on Brexit being given the day of the referendum? Wasn't it like 4:1 remain?

Yeah, influenced by polls. This is somewhat different.

[Poopadoop]

You guys are biased.

I would reckon the average Briton is also biased against Trump. The average punter I don't know, can't say. I mean who are these fucking people and why would anyone listen to them?

But, we've also explained to you how there's no evidence for systematic cheating. That's not bias, it's a fact. But you ignore that because hurr durr the betting odds.

Yeah, influenced by polls. This is somewhat different.

So what do you think is influencing them in this instance? Insider knowledge on voter fraud that has somehow been kept from the public during all the public court cases going on in the US over the last three weeks that are being laughed out of court?

[OngBonga]

I would reckon the average Briton is also biased against Trump. The average punter I don't know, can't say. I mean who are these fucking people and why would anyone listen to them?

Of course, most people who bet on politics are indeed biased. But the odds reflect the average.

But, we've also explained to you how there's no evidence for systematic cheating. That's not bias, it's a fact. But you ignore that because hurr durr the betting odds.

I didn't ignore it. If you scroll up, you'll see I replied to boost and accepted his comments. I simply pointed out that people are still betting on Trump, with reasonably short odds, so there are people who disagree.

So what do you think is influencing them in this instance?

No idea. idk about "inside knowledge". I'd be more inclined to say they are influenced by their source of media, while you're influenced by yours. People believe what they want to believe, and you guys are no different. I've told you I have no horse in this race. I want the legitimate winner to win, whoever that might be. I'd say that's likely Biden, but I don't know that.

[Poopadoop]

Pretty sure if there was evidence that was holding up in court of systematic cheating on a scale large enough to affect the winner of the election we'd have heard about it from somewhere. Even biased news wants to sell newspapers.

[OngBonga]

I don't think they give a fuck about selling newspapers anymore. They probably get paid by lobbyists and sponsors to promote their agenda.

I mean, I've said it already, but I'll say it again. You can literally take their money off them. You can get 7 cents on the dollar for a Biden win right now. That's printing money if what you guys say is true. Stop wasting your time trying to convince me, and go print some money.

[OngBonga]

Find me an investment with a 7% return in two months that's a safer bet than this. There's £700k+ of action waiting to be taken. That's £50k you can print, if you have £700k sat in your bank waiting to be invested.

[OngBonga]

There's more than £2.5m at 6% waiting to be snapped up too.

[OngBonga]

Same again at 5%

Ridiculous.

[oskar]

I would have no problem flipping 4rollz on that. The reason I haven't is because I know nothing about betfair, I don't know exchange rates, I don't know what the legal status is in my country.
I think it would be an extremely good investment if betfair is sufficiently trustworthy and there's no chance you'll get your ass black-fridayed.

[oskar]

This is the current status of Trump's legal strategy:
https://twitter.com/RandyRRQuaid/sta...43884082409474
link doesn't show, but it has been retweeted by Trump

...and wtf is this:

[OngBonga]

idk about legal status in Austria, but betfair is the largest betting exchange in the world. They make an absolute fortune and a £10k bet is fuck all to them considering they get their % regardless of whether you win or the person taking your bet. It's like worrying about pokerstars giving you your winnings when the're making easy money on the rake. They're not going to dick you about. The worst thing that can happen is they cancel all bets and return any money.

Basically they provide a platform for two people to make a bet against each other, with betfair taking a cut from the winning bet (essentially the rake). They do run their own books, but only idiots will bet against betfair, since the odds are always worse. If you're betting on the exchange, you're betting against other people. The "sportsbook" is their own book. They also have a casino and slots, plus a poker room and bingo. The exchange is where it's at though.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.128151441

The price has changed since Trump said he'd accept the result once the electoral college ratify it. You can currently get 1.05 on Biden, so a 5% return (before rake). That means people have taken the odds of 1.07 and 1.06 (or those offering those odds have cancelled their bet before it was taken), and there's nobody left offering those odds. There's currently just over £4.5m of action waiting to be taken at 1.05.

If you're going to bet on sports or politics, this is the place to do it, as you will nearly always get better odds. And if you find you're getting worse odds than a bookmaker is offering, you're printing money by betting against it (lay) on betfair and then betting for it (back) at the bookmakers. So if betting is something you're into, it will definitely be in your interest to learn how betfair works.

[OngBonga]

There's a concept called "matched betting", which, if you're disciplined, is also printing money. Bookmakers often entice new customers with free bets, so let's say you bet on a tennis match, say Nadal vs Djokovic. The bookies might be offering 2.0 on Nadal and 1.7 on Djokovic, while at betfair you'll get 2.1 on Nadal on 1.8 on Djokovic. So you can take your free bet, say £10, stick it on Nadal, and then go and bet against Nadal at betfair. If Nadal wins, you win against the bookies but lose on betfair. You'll make a small amount of money. If Djokovic wins, you'll lose against the bookies, but win on betfair, and win a decent amount of money. It's win-win.

Of course, there's only so many free bets you can take before you run of out bookmakers, but people find ways around it. I hear stories of people who make a living doing this, they will pay people to use their details to open new accounts with bookies. This is dodgy as fuck, if the bookies find out you're doing this you'll lose any money, but it's incredibly hard for them to prove and not really worth their resources, especially since most people who try matched betting aren't very disciplined and will eventually spunk their money away instead of cashing out.

[oskar]

Thanks!
Btw just to demonstrate how far out of the loop I am: I registered on betfair the other week without rakeback.

[Poopadoop]

Lol Trump looks like a grade school kid at that little desk.

And Randy Quaid needs to take his meds.

[boost]

Can't I be both?

lul

as for putting my money where my mouth is, unfortunately it is illegal here and I don't have a significant enough sum of liquid cash that I'd be able to lock up to make it worth figuring out if it'd be enforced or if there's an easy work around.

Anyways, there are an infinite number of low probabilities and things you can find some people willing to put money on that you treat as flat out untrue, and that's why everyone finds it so odd that you insist on highlighting these instances regarding the US presidential election. Everything points the other way. It also feels disingenuous to show so much interest, then when it becomes more and more apparent that you were wrong, suddenly you're not paying attention and not interested. Your mealy mouthed acceptance of the case I laid out, followed by unreasonable hedging doesn't help.

[boost]

Lol Trump looks like a grade school kid at that little desk.

And Randy Quaid needs to take his meds.

wait, that's real? Wtf is going on?

[oskar]

wait, that's real? Wtf is going on?

I think his staff hates him.
Side story: after the press conference #diaperdon started trending, which prompted Trump to tweet this:



We live in an amazing time.

[OngBonga]

It also feels disingenuous to show so much interest, then when it becomes more and more apparent that you were wrong, suddenly you're not paying attention and not interested

I can't really help that. But I'm not wrong, because I never predicted that Trump would overturn the result. I just commentated on it from a different angle because, frankly, it's an echo chamber here without me taking an opposing position.

[OngBonga]

Twitter definitely manipulate trends.

Why is "fuck" not constantly trending?

[CoccoBill]

Why is "fuck" not constantly trending?

The same reason "and", "me" and "no" aren't.

[OngBonga]

The same reason "and", "me" and "no" aren't.

Indeed. Because Twitter manipulate the trends. In this context, it is very much understandable (and a good thing otherwise we'd only ever have these trends), but I'm in no doubt that Twitter also manipulate trends for agenda reasons.

[CoccoBill]

Indeed. Because Twitter manipulate the trends. In this context, it is very much understandable (and a good thing otherwise we'd only ever have these trends), but I'm in no doubt that Twitter also manipulate trends for agenda reasons.

Um, no. It's because trending means hashtags and topics, not individual words.

[OngBonga]

Um, no. It's because trending means hashtags and topics, not individual words.

If this were true, then why do misspelled words trend?

[CoccoBill]

If this were true, then why do misspelled words trend?

Someone misspells a hashtag and people copy it.

[OngBonga]

Someone misspells a hashtag and people copy it.

So the only misspelled words that trend are hashtags? Or do you think people copy the word but not the #?

[CoccoBill]

So the only misspelled words that trend are hashtags? Or do you think people copy the word but not the #?

Yes, twitter doesn't do word analysis (well, not for deciding trending topics), it's all about hashtags.

https://rethinkmedia.org/blog/how-do...-what-trending

[OngBonga]

I already read that article and found it somewhat inconclusive. Well, I say read, I scanned.

I'm sure I've seen non-hashtag misspelled trends. I'll let you know when I next see one.

[OngBonga]

Eric Clapton is currently trending because people only just found out he said racist things in 1976.

[OngBonga]

Twitter obviously heard me saying they manipulate trends, because literally as soon as I say it, they allow #BidenCheated to trend.

I know their game.

[Poopadoop]

As for betting a significant amount of money to win a small amount of money, I can see a little upside but also a lot of downside. Like +5% vs. -100%. Or I can just keep it in the bank and have a certain + 0.2% or w/e the cheap cunts give out these days.

That said if it was someone else's life savings (like Oskar) I'd probably tell him to do it.

[Poopadoop]

wait, that's real? Wtf is going on?

The desk? Or Randy Quaid channeling Satan?

They're both pretty weird.

[OngBonga]

As for betting a significant amount of money to win a small amount of money, I can see a little upside but also a lot of downside. Like +5% vs. -100%.

So you're saying that Trump might still win? Well ok then.

[Poopadoop]

So you're saying that Trump might still win? Well ok then.

I don't have a crystal ball. Anything is possible even if only remotely so.

Even if I put Trump's chances of "winning" (i.e., pulling off a successful coup) at 0.1%, making the bet +++EV, in order to make enough profit to have even a tiny discernible improvement in my life, I'd have to risk enough to seriously fuck it up. What is the point of that?

[Poopadoop]

But if you want to make a smaller bet, I'll happily lay you £100 to your £5 just for bragging rights.

[boost]

People that tune into this type of shit can vote and they also can place bets with a bookie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2L6l_Hdy70w

[boost]

I can't really help that. But I'm not wrong, because I never predicted that Trump would overturn the result. I just commentated on it from a different angle because, frankly, it's an echo chamber here without me taking an opposing position.

You're trying to be cute here. But fine, I can play. Every day that goes by, every bit of additional information we get, it is increasingly clear that you were almost surely overweighting the possibility that the election was stolen from Trump through fraud.

[Poopadoop]

Every day that goes by, every bit of additional information we get, it is increasingly clear that you were almost surely overweighting the possibility that the election was stolen from Trump through fraud.

Perhaps the reason Ong is hedging his bets on the election is because all of the talking shit that Trump's lawyers are doing resonates with his own preferred style of argument.

[Poopadoop]

Ong I will sweeten the deal for you. If Trump wins AND Biden goes to prison for election fraud by the end of March, 2021, I will pay you £200.

BUT, if Biden wins and Trump leaves the US for a country with a non-extradition treaty by the same time, you have to pay me £10.

NB. Oskar might also want in on this bet, so you could win as much as £400!