I feel like this is kind of missing the point. Are you happy to sit there with a gun pointing at you if they promise not to shoot you?If I misunderstood your assertion that Putin not wanting missiles on his doorstep has nothing to do with a fear of those missiles being used, then just stop being so pedantic.
NATO is part of the problem. I do appreciate the value of a defence union, I've seen footage of British troops moving tanks into Estonia and Latvia, Russia basically cannot invaded these places without engaging with NATO troops, in this case British. So Russia won't invade. The deterrent is real. That's the good side of NATO. The bad side is that if Ukraine were not seeking NATO membership, Russia would not have invaded. Russia took Crimea because it's far too strategic on the Black Sea to allow it to fall into NATO hands. Russia does not want NATO sea bases in the Black Sea. That's probably why he tolerates Estonia and Latvia, but won't tolerate Ukraine. Ukraine has a Black Sea coastline.
I'm sure there are, what he would consider, "historical wrongs" that he'd like to right. Crimea was one example. I don't think his only motivation is NATO expansion. But I'm pretty sure that if these Eastern regions were allowed at least semi-autonomy, and if Ukraine were not seeking NATO membership, then Putin would not have invaded Ukraine. He'd already be getting what he wants. He doesn't want Kyiv, it's useless to him, the people of Kyiv will never accept Russian rule.There is evidence from Putin himself that his ambitions go well beyond a hypothetical threat.
He can never fulfil this vision. Estonia, Latvia Lithuania, am I missing anyone? They're already in NATO. They are forever lost. Western Ukraine will never accept Russian rule, that's as good as lost too.Putin's on record saying something like the dissolution of the soviet republics is the greatest tragedy of the 20th century.He's annexing Ukraine as part of that vision.
He can't restore the Soviet Union without going to war with NATO. I'm not convinced Russia can win a war against Ukraine, let alone NATO.
And he's not annexing places with Russia-friendly governments in place. Belarus is under his thumb, Kazakhstan don't seem to have problems with Russia, that's massive and would be a huge territorial gain for an expanding Soviet vision, I'm not convinced it's his ultimate goal. It's impossible to fulfil without world war, and he's not attacking governments who don't seek NATO membership.
This is obviously Russian propaganda. I don't think their president is into this Nazi sympathy stuff, but just because the Russians are milking it, don't assume that means there's no basis to it. Their president seems to be trying to clean up Ukrainian politics, I don't think these Nazi charges against him are based on any fact. But Ukraine has a problem with Nazism, that is a fact. People seem to be losing sight of that.His stated reason for doing so now is to protect the Ukrainian people from their (Jewish) nazi President.
Yeah I mean when it becomes obvious that he's motivated by Russian ethnic supremacy and is intent on spreading it around the world, that's when I'll start calling him literally Hitler. Until then, he's just another Bush, Blair, Obama, Macron, Clinton, or any other world leader who is willing to sacrifice soldiers and civilians for their geopolitical goals.Until and unless Putin begins ethnic cleansing and concentration camps, I think the Hitler thing it going too far.
To be clear about where I am on this, Putin is an asshole and should get the fuck out of Ukraine. I don't support this war at all. But I can understand why it's got to this point. Ukraine should, in my opinion, have taken advise from Finland on how to be allied to both NATO and Russia, while simultaneously standing up to Russian rhetoric. Finland manage their Russia relations superbly. Ukraine have taken the gamble that seeking NATO membership, and in doing so infuriating Putin, is the way to deal with Russia. I think this is reckless. I feel like what is happening is an inevitable consequence of this decision.
I think the endgame here is Ukraine agreeing to not pursue NATO membership, and the breakaway states retaining autonomy. That's probably what Ukraine need to agree to for us to see a Russian withdrawal. If Putin is trying to take all Ukraine, he's got a long and bloody war on his hands, and one he's not going to win.





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