Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
This utterly misses the point. Geopolitics is not just about the threat of invasion or attack from another country.

If NATO were to build up a military presence in Ukraine, Russia will feel they have no choice but to have their own military build up ion the area to remain on equal footing. Failing to do so would lose influence in the region. Russia don't fear an invasion or attack from NATO, what they fear is the diminished control of the Black Sea, and the economic consequences of having to increase their military presence on the Western front of their country, which is geographically their weakest front.

Russia do not want to be a sitting duck. That would mean less leverage in geopolitical affairs. That's what matters to Russia.
"This utterly misses the point" and proceeds to argue for my point. Yes, Russia is worried that they'll lose influence and authority over their neighbors, and even their own population who might star asking questions if their western neighbors are prospering more than them. Them reacting the way they do is why NATO is needed in the first place, and why Russia's neighbors are so keen to join it. There's two sides to this, a bully, and those opposing that bully. I just find it odd the lengths some people go to show empathy towards the bully.

Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
I think this is just paranoia. It's understandable in the current climate, but Russia are not going to invade the Baltic states or Poland because that means going to war with NATIO. Invading Finland would also seriously risk world war, and in the best case scenario means a war with Finland that neither side will win, with the ultimate result of Finland definitely joining NATO to ensure it doesn't happen again. Russia invading Finland would be the dumbest thing they could do, short of invading a NATO country.
I don't think the risk is an open full scale assault, it's sudden appearance of little green men in some areas, rumors of nazism, human rights abuses against russian nationals in foreign countries, small territorial disputes that lead to new funsized "independent" states a la Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Transnistria, South-Ossetia, Abkhazia etc. That's how Russia has operated for decades, taking small enough bites at a time for anyone to be outraged enough to act. What makes you think they'd now suddenly just stop what they've been doing since medieval times?