You mean the way Russia told Ukraine not to join NATO or Russia would invade, then Ukraine didn't join NATO and Russia invaded?

Given the facts we already know... I can't see why Sweden or Finland would be thinking NOT joining NATO is more protection than joining NATO.

Putin can see NATO as a threat to his sovereignty, and that may indeed prove true.
His assertion that The West is anti-Russian culture is total hogwash, though.
If he played this differently, he could have gelled public sentiment in the West against NATO and in favor of Russia.
That could still be done by a charismatic politician with the will to do so.

Instead, Putin chose violence.