*** Official Putin Started Shootin' Thread ***

[Poopadoop]

Holy shit that's actually a word. I thought it was Oskar speaking Germglish. Sorry Oskar I underestimated you.

[OngBonga]

I would have thought that Ukraine's army is a great deal more powerful than Wagner, even without Western weapons.

So what happens if Ukraine abandons the front line and deploys nearly all of its troops on a march to Moscow? Are Russia going to keep their troops in Ukraine while the capital comes under attack? Most certainly not.

Russia looks weaker now that it has since the Soviet Union collapsed.

[Poopadoop]

So what happens if Ukraine abandons the front line and deploys nearly all of its troops on a march to Moscow?

Yeah, that's not really a practical plan. For one, the Russians are already between them and Moscow. For another, if Ukraine give up their whole country to take Moscow, where are they going to get their supplies from? That would end the war quickly alright, just not in the way you imagine.

[OngBonga]

Yeah, that's not really a practical plan. For one, the Russians are already between them and Moscow. For another, if Ukraine give up their whole country to take Moscow, where are they going to get their supplies from? That would end the war quickly alright, just not in the way you imagine.

Well yeah obviously if you deploy literally all of your resources to such a mission then it's stupid, but it could reasonably become a military objective to deploy a large invading force, if a private army of 25k can cause soiled trousers in the Kremlin.

They will at least be having conversations of this nature in Ukrainian war rooms.

[OngBonga]

The only reason Wagner are disbanding and abandoning the mutiny is because they're Russian patriots. They are highly incentivised to negotiate, they want to avoid civil war as much as the leadership.

A foreign army has no such incentives.

Russia is a lame duck, from the perspective of any nation who feels their army is superior to Wagner, which is most of the world.

[OngBonga]

The plane they shot down was a command plane. That presumably means the loss of several high ranking officers. This should be unforgivable treason, but Putin is just accepting it as fair game. You wouldn't even spike this fucker's tea, you'd drag him to Moscow and put him to trial where he legally gets sentenced to death. But instead he's free to leave.

Are Wagner really that strong an army that a world superpower is afraid to engage them? Putin must be afraid that Wagner is more popular than he is. That's the only thing that makes sense. He fears that Russian armed forces will disobey and defect, that Russian civilians will support the revolution. No way could this private army do it alone, not if Russia really is a military power worthy of note.

[Poopadoop]

They will at least be having conversations of this nature in Ukrainian war rooms.

Ok, Monty.

Seriously I don't think you understand how war works. Ukraine is having to battle hard just to retake territory they lost last year. They're not in any position for a push on Moscow.

[OngBonga]

Not orchestrated by Putin, but the siloviks or whoever is planning to oust him.

Well I guess it's inevitable there are multiple internal forces working against Putin here.

If their plan was to simply make Putin look weak without actually initiating a full blown revolution, it's working, but it seems like a risky plan. They must have been certain that Putin was unable to respond properly in a timely manner.

[OngBonga]

Also poop, as mojo points out, they have air superiority in Russian territory. Not so much in Ukraine where they face entrenched air defences and western anti-aircraft weapons.

I don't doubt Wagner are tooled up and can take out aircraft, but surely Russia can completely overwhelm them for relatively few losses.