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OK, smarty-pants, what's the best move?

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  1. #1
    rong's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by celtic123 View Post
    This puzzle is clear and open. As GMML points out.

    Try this.
    We have 300 boxes, all empty, except 1 with $$£££.
    You chose 1 box and the host opens 298 , revealing them to be empty.

    We are left with 2 boxes , the one you chose at the beginning and the other one that the host hasn't opened yet.

    Do you think you picked the money box from the off ?
    Or do you switch ?

    Jeeze.
    lol, if host chose at random it's still pointless switching.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    lol, if host chose at random it's still pointless switching.
    Yes, however in this case we have some other considerations. 298 boxes opened at random and none of them find the prize which is in the 299th box, the chance of that happening should be abysmal, our intuition tells us. So you're probably already sitting on the prize? Let's calculate

    Odds of randomly opening only 298 empty boxes=
    298/299 *297/298 *296/297 * ... *3/4 *2/3 *1/2= 1/299

    This is a higher chance than your needed 1/300 to bink the prize, so it's still just 50/50.

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