Yeah that's certainly what I'm looking for, assuming it is correct. Now I want to figure out how to quickly do this for a variety of % ranges i.e. 99 90 75 etc, and manipulate the population a little and see what results. For example if we change our equity on the river from 33% to 37%, how much different do those numbers look? I'm gonna set up a google sheet for this.
My end goal is to test a hypothesis that I have which is the following: Very thin plays for big bets aren't just marginally +EV, they're -EV. Practically, at the sample sizes humans are capable of experiencing, particularly during reasonable spans of time (say around 6 to 24 months of play), if you can't be reasonably confident that the play will result in equity > the mean, and your bankroll and sanity aren't nearly infinite, you should just pass on these spots. So I want to know "how thin is okay" for a variety of common poker situations, and eventually develop an intuitive sense of this.
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