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Probability question (math nerds welcome)

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  1. #2
    In London atm so can post yay.

    Your math is not correct and the actual confidence interval is even more narrow.

    st dev = 1.4
    standard error = 1.4/sqrt(100) = 0.14
    margin of error = 1.96*0.14=0.2744
    confidence interval 95% = [-0.2744, +0.2744]

    What this means is that if we keep constructing samples from this distribution, 95% of the time the mean will be between these two numbers. In the case of 100 wins the mean is 2 so it should be clear that your bounds were meaninglessly large.

    Also note that typically when confidence intervals are used, we have a data set but we don't know the real underlying probability disribution because it's an experimentally derived sample. Here is quite straight-forward because we know the exact distribution.

    In short, confidence intervals are really tricky. I think you only really get a feel for what they represent when you use them in practice. Not doing that atm so can't help you there.It's a known head breaker.
    Last edited by jackvance; 01-01-2015 at 11:09 AM.

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