This person can't get his head round luck/skill in long term poker. Help me prove myself right
I am Nick, he is Ryan, in this dialogue.

Nick says:
luck is a factor, skill is a factor
Nick says:
as much as you will disagree, luck does always always even out, or it comes very very close to even in the long term
Nick says:
if you have skill, that won't even out, you will always have skill
Nick says:
so in the long term you will profit
Nick says:
and that is why poker is a hugely profitable game for those that are good at it
Ryan says:
mathmeticains view, luck doesnt always even out
Nick says:
no it doesn't
Nick says:
but as time goes on it will get closer and closer to even, statistically
Ryan says:
and yeh, obv skill does take a role in poker, otherwise any1 could win shizzle
Nick says:
but as time goes on it will get closer and closer to even, statistically
Ryan says:
but, for example, u may appear to be lucky n get a pair of aces, but at same time, all ur oponents could fold and then u win like fuck all
Ryan says:
erm
Ryan says:
mathmatically
Ryan says:
u could lose 1000 out of 1000 hands
Nick says:
yes, but work out the probability of that einstein
Ryan says:
its the same as 500/500 split
Ryan says:
einstein
Nick says:
basically if you flip a coin 3 times it could come up 100/0 or 66/33. if you flip a coing a million times it will, and i say will come up about 50.1/49.9
Nick says:
i know that mathematically it might not
Nick says:
but get real, it basically isn't going to happen
Ryan says:
i disagree
Ryan says:

Nick says:
and there was a fucking good website i found a couple of years ago that explained why this is the case
Nick says:
but i've lost it now so i can't link you
Ryan says:
look at it this way
Ryan says:
u havea coin
Ryan says:
50% heads 50% tails
Ryan says:
ok
Ryan says:
lands head on first flip
Ryan says:
had 0.5 chance of tht
Ryan says:
lands head again
Ryan says:
had 0.5 chance of tht
Ryan says:
lands head again
Ryan says:
had 0.5 chance of tht
Ryan says:
now
Ryan says:
we go again
Ryan says:
first time lands heads
Ryan says:
0.5 chance
Ryan says:
then lands taiks
Ryan says:
0.5 chance
Ryan says:
etc etc
Ryan says:
equals the same
Nick says:
yes, i don't have a clue how luck evens out and i wish i knew where this website was that mathematically explains it, but it does. it quite simply does
Nick says:
and i understand that you don't accept that because there is a small chance it won't
Nick says:
like, i had a pokertracker database (thing that keeps a history of every hand i've ever played) which i'd saved 1,000 hands into, ish
Nick says:
in those thousand hands i did not have pocket aces once
Nick says:
the statistical chance of getting dealt pocket aces is once every 221 hands
Nick says:
and i didn't get it in a thousand
Nick says:
so its once in infinity hands for that database
Nick says:
my main database at the time had about 650,000 hands in it
Nick says:
and i worked out the percentage of getting aces, because i used to think the same way as you
Nick says:
and fractionally it came to one in every 220.91 hands
Nick says:
so i worked out a few more and they were only a couple of decimal points out as well
Nick says:
luck always evens out
Ryan says:
yes
Ryan says:
majority of time
Ryan says:
it evens out out
Ryan says:
but im saying
Ryan says:
there is just a greater MATHMATICAL chance tht it couldnt
Ryan says:
so therfore
Ryan says:
u cannot assume tht it will
Nick says:
you sort of agree i think..
Nick says:
so if i am dealt 1 hand, the chance of it being aces is one in 221
Nick says:
if i am dealt a million hands, the chance of them all being aces is something like one in a few hundred trillion
Nick says:
and call me a gambling man, but i'm willing to assume that won't happen
Nick says:
and so far my assumptions have been right
Nick says:
its basic GCSE probablity here ryan, i remember it myself
Nick says:
those tree diagrams
Ryan says:
yeh
Ryan says:
see
Ryan says:
ur backing my point up here
Nick says:
well i think we agree, you're just on a different scale to me
Nick says:
in a million hands of poker, there is i would say about a 0.00001% chance that you will be dealt an irregular number of a specific hand over or under 3% of the norm
Nick says:
i'm not saying there's no chance
Nick says:
just a very very small chance
Nick says:
and i'm willing to assume that won't happen because the chance is so ridiculously small
Nick says:
once in about 30 lifetimes i will be proved wrong
Ryan says:
but at end of day
Ryan says:
there is no physical law on earth
Ryan says:
that stops tht from happening
Ryan says:
fo whilst it seems less likely
Ryan says:
or is less likely
Ryan says:
there is still that chance tht it could happen
Ryan says:
and therefore, you cant really rule out the fact that, if something like that were to happen, then skill can prevail
Nick says:
i never ruled out the fact at all
Ryan says:
because luck has just wankered you out of money basically
Ryan says:

Nick says:
i've only said the chances of it are stupidly minute.
Nick says:
if a skilful player lost money due to negative variance over a period of a million hands
Nick says:
we're talking of the odds of that being unbelieveable
Nick says:
like one in a billion.
Nick says:
i'm not saying it won't happen
Nick says:
but there is a huge huge chance it won't
Ryan says:
look
Ryan says:
im going to bed
Ryan says:
because my hair smells of tinsel