Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 13

[ensign_lee]

So far, the following bet stands out to me.

No, I'm probably not going to let it stand, but this line can go nowhere BUT up.

DAL -3 (-129) @ NYG
3 units at Pinnacle

Think about this; NYG just lost a game where they were leading by 21 in the fourth. Dallas just got showcased in front of a national audience kicking the crap out of TB.

This line will get the HELL bet out of it. I'm just taking a lead for scalping purposes now. Anyone who wants to is welcome to join me.

[ensign_lee]

WTF happened to that Dallas line? And what happened to the gobs of public money that was supposed to pour in on it???

Bah. Looks like a 60/40 split favored to Dallas, and the line has moved back to 3 from 4 earlier. WTF?!?!

I thought about eating this loss, but honestly, this would be like a 20 cent loss at this point; it may be -EV for me to do so. I guess I'll stop taking early positions from now on; I mean, damn. This is like three weeks in a row where it's bitten me in the ass.

[ensign_lee]

I'm placing these bets now, because it looks like the lines will move against me come morning:

Minnesota +9 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

Minnesota +6 1st half (-105)
3 units at Skybook

Minnesota +3.5 (+187)
3 units at Pinnacle

Pinnacle has been trying to get people to bet Chicago all damn week, not once giving anywhere near the best price on this game for Minnesota. Plus, this is the first game on the card, where the books try to sucker in public action on a team (the Bears). If you'll look through this season, the favorite has covered once this year on the first game on the card, and a whole bunch of these games have been sucker bets: IND -9.5 @ NYJ, SD -6 @ KC...etc.

So this is pretty much my make or break game for tomorrow. Let's hope it's the former and not the latter.

For my other bets tomorrow, I'm waiting until tomorrow to try to get more favorable lines/odds, but I will probably be placing bets on the following:

NYJ - They are clearly the superior team here. Was scared this was a trap game, but it seems like fairly split action here. Worst I see is 60/40, but I think the proportion is more like 52/48.
HOU M/L - each team I think has a 50/50 shot here. I'll take the moneyline at + money
DEN

and I might play the following games, but nothing's set in stone yet:
TEN (ugh...betting against Indy AGAIN)
CLE - fading public
DET - fading public
BUF - fading public

[ensign_lee]

Honestly, I don't see this line moving in my favor by the morning, so I'm going to bet this line tonight as well:

NYJ +1 (-106)
1 unit at Pinnacle

The Jets are the better team here, plain and simple. The line should be Jets -2 if anything; There is no reason for them to be underdogs here.

[ensign_lee]

Washington -1.5 (+118)
3 units at Pinnacle

Washington moved from being a favorite to being an underdog on public money. Big red flags for me and enough to warrant a 3 unit play. I also sold the points back across the 0 for more favorable odds.

BUF +6.5 vs. SD (-115)
2 units at Skybook

Teams from the West Coast simply don't fare well when they go to the East Coast. A theory going around is that the time change screws with them a lot (essentially they're suited up and playing at 9:00 AM instead of 12:00), and another theory is that once it becomes late in the yaer, teh weather is a lot harsher to teams not from the east.

Public is all over SD (75%), and these two reasons are good enough to warrant a 2 unit bet.

CLE Moneyline (+182)
2 units at Pinnacle

CLE +4.5 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

This has looked like a trap game all week, and especially so now, with the line moving in the favor of KC (going from KC -5 to KC -4 now). In fact, Pinnacle seems to be all but begging you to buy the hook from -4 to -3.5 so that you can take KC. In that case, I'll take the Browns.

DET +13 (-106.1)
1 unit at Matchbook

Pinnacle has been trying to shoo away money on Detroit the entire week, never hanging a favorable line. Plus, the Patriots may have a bit of a letdown after that huge game last week.

DEN -3.5 (-120.6)
1 unit at Matchbook
Doesn't appear that waiting is going to give me a better line, as the lines are currently popping to -4.5 as I type. So I took the only way to 3.5 I could find. I HAD planned on using Skybook's free half point to go from -4 to -3.5, but that no longer appears to be an option.

[ensign_lee]

One halftime play:

NYJ/GB UNDER 17 Second Half (+107.5)
1 unit at Pinnacle, 1 unit at Matchbook (averaged the juice)

With teams that up by a huge margin, usually they just try to run out the clock the second half. Meanwhile, if the other team couldn't score before, I don't see how they could score now.

Straight system play. +money is nitce too

[ensign_lee]

Two plays for MNF:

PHI Moneyline (+145)
3 units at Skybook

PHI -3.5 (+230)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Going heavily anti-public here, as 70% of the bets coming in are on Carolina, especially after that embarassing game last week that Philadelphia put on. However, the line pretty much hasn't budged at all off of that 3. And so I thought, as long as I was taking the moneyline, I thought I'd take a shot at -3.5 and get super + money.

Go Eagles?