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For tomorrow, I have a lot of action on the Indy/Houston game.
IND 1st Half Team Total OVER 14.5 (+100)
3 units at Pinnacle
IND Team Total OVER 28 (-114)
3 units at Pinnacle
Have you SEEN the status of the Texans secondary? We have Dunta Robinson, who's a stud, but who's been regressing ever since Aaron Glenn left. He's STILL a stud, and I will be wearing HIS jersey tomorrow, but all you have to do if you're Peyton Manning is not throw at Dunta and you'll be ok. We have a fifth round corner in DeMarcus Faggins who should not be starting, but is because of the lack of quality depth at corner at RCB. Behind him, we have...Lewis Sanders, I think? And Dexter Wynn? I remember at a certian point, we were signing street free agents to fill the secondary. Also, our safeties are CC Brown (known better for his big hit ability rather than his coverage ability: 6th or 7th round pick from last year) and Glenn Earl (fourth round SS. Was once projected to go 1st, but then blew out his knee), whose forté isn't pass coverage either. You saw what Peyton did to the Bengals? If he can do HALF that, this secondary stands no chance.
THe front seven is still average at best, with Mario still struggling with a severely injured foot (but will still play) and us starting street free agents at DT (WTF? I thought this was supposed to be a team strength at D-line going into the season). Peek has shown he can get to the passer at times, but Babin certainly hasn't...and Babin's starting.
Granted, Richard Smith could pull something cool out of his ass and somehow stop Peyton (and that would go a LONG way towards winning this game. Yay go texans!!!), but I don't think it's possible with his personnel. He has two good healthy players on this defense (Dunta and DeMeco), an injured star (Mario) and a few average defenders (Morlon Greenwood, Antwaan Peek, Jason Babin) anchoring this D. I don't see how it can stop Peyton and Co. Hell, Addai should be able to score on us at will too.
And if David Carr insists on continuuing to hand over the ball to the other team, well...not much the defense is going to be able to do now, is there?
Colts will score.
IND -6.5 (-101)
2 units at Pinnacle
This is an extension of my original IND -9 bet for the game. I can see Indy being up by a TD or more more than half the time. Peyton's not one to let up on his opponents, preferring instead to wail on them unmercilessly (which is why the full game bet is a good bet too, but I've already maxed out that one  )
As for the rest of the NFL, here we go:
JAC -3 (-103)
2 units at Pinnacle
New England has lost some key personnel and Jacksonville is just a completely different team on the road than at home; at home, they are nearly invinceable (when not playing the Texans.  ) If you look back, they have been monsters at home, destroying every team that dares to venture into Qualcomm Stadium. And this year (for once), the fans are actually helping their team by creating a good atmosphere. You can tell the difference just by watching the games.
CLE -3 (-113)
2 units at Pinnacle
TB lost a heartbreaking game last week where they laid it all on the line vs. Chicago, going into overtime. I don't see how they can match that intensity vs. anybody now, honestly, especially with their season in shambles. Plus, with all the injuries they've suffered, they are at a real talent disadvantage over nearly every team in the NFL right now.
Plus, if you're a believer in trends, teams playing a game after playing Chicago don't do very well in their next games, notching something like a 33% ATS record or so (I think; someone check me on that?).
CAR Moneyline (+275)
1 unit at Boodg
This is more of a 'me' bet than any of the rest. If there's one thing Carolina knows how to do, it's stop Michael Vick. That defense was geared towards stopping that boy; check the past years' stats. Vick was almost always contained by Carolina's style of defense. Now, the question mark is Carolina's offense. Can they get it going? Granted, Atlanta's defense has been less than advertised, but they're still a fairly good defense (in my eyes, at least).
Still, I think Carolina wins this at least half the time. +275 is +EV to me.
STL -.5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook
I was eyeing this when it came out, and then a handicapper that I respect also posted it as one of his top plays. The fact that the number has gone towards 0 in what seems like a 50/50 split of action worries me a bit, but not enough to completely deter me, just to lower the amount of units I'll put on it.
~~~
Allrighty. I'm headed off to the game (Go Texans? Go Colts?  ) tomorrow so that's why I have all this done now. Allright; Let's goooo!!!!
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Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 16
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
