Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 3

[ensign_lee]

Ok: So I've been doing horribly, spraying the board and pretty much doing everything that I shouldn't have.

Fortunately, week 3 is here! Most successful handicappers I know start to up their bets, and become more selective come week 3. They treat the first few weeks, plus preseason as a "testing" period. This way, when the bets 'really count', they'll have more information in order to make decisions.

I've learned a lot about the teams by 'spraying the board' (despite getting owned). As such, my unit bets will go up now, and I will be playing fewer bets.

My early leans, looking at the lines: (feel free to fade me)

PHI -6 @ SF (-105)
San Francisco did good today, but I don't see them pulling two upsets in a row. If memory serves me correctly, they still have three (THREE!!!) starting offensive linemen out for this game. Philly should be able to eat them alive. If I can get -5.5 at reasonable juice, I'll love this bet.

[ensign_lee]

BAL -6.5 @ CLE (+101)
15 units at Pinnacle

Ok. This line may not last that long. I feel it's a soft line, though it COULD definitely be a Vegas trap.

Baltimore did pretty poorly in their game against the Raiders, and yet still won by a pretty large margin. Frye hasn't been very impressive against lesser defenses, and I think that Baltimore will be able to handle him and Droughns.

When I first saw this game, I figured the spread would be somewhere around -10.5 or so. -6.5 (or you can buy it to -5.5 without having to pay too much juice) is generous to me.

[ensign_lee]

ATL -3 vs. NO (+112)
5 units at Pinnacle

New Orleans has done very well for itself. I'll give this team its props. But they're not going to be beating up on Green Bay or Cleveland anymore. Atlanta actually has an offensive line to protect its QB and a defense to challenge the Saints offensive line.

This game, like most in the NFL, will be decided by those in the trenches, and ATL should be able to control the line of scrimmage all day. Plus money at -3 is great value for me.

[ensign_lee]

NYJ +6 (-105) @ BUF
2 units at Pinnacle

NYJ Moneyline (+245) @ BUF
2 units at Pinnacle

Uh...is it just me, or does anyone else think this line should be pk? New York really impressed me in the NE game, showing that they CAN hang tough if they need to.

Buffalo? They had a pitiful amount of offense against Miami. I don't care if they HAVE been the team that has been KILLING ME the last two weeks; I'm gonna fade them AGAIN. NOTHING that they have done has impressed me. At + money, I'll take the moneyline every time.

{edited to include the moneyline bet}

[drmcboy]

the browns couldn't even run on us (Cincy) today, I can't image they can even score 6 against the ravens, so unless it's 5-0 you're golden. I used to hate the browns, now you just shake your head. Thank Tim Couch for the easy money.

[Phantaroth]

Chicago -3 1/2 vs Minnesota (-105)

New York +3 1/2 vs Seattle (-105)

Philadelphia -6 vs. San Fransisco

I really think these are all really good ones. I said that last week and got all three wrong, but these look solid.

[elipsesjeff]

last i looked, pinnacle had chicago at -3 for -103.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah. I was gonna hop on Chicago -3 at like +105, but then the line changed, and I thought "nah. I'm just not THAT sure about that play."

[zook]

I placed these:

PHI -6 vs. SF (-105) @ Mansion - 1 unit
NYJ Moneyline (+243) vs. BUF @ Mansion - 1 unit

2-team teaser (+100) @ Mansion - 1 unit
IND -1 vs. JAC
CIN +8 vs. PIT

I agree with lee about the NYJ line... seems REALLY high. I'm thinking about upping the Philly bet to two units, I think they're going to dominate San Fran.

[Phantaroth]

I think there is absolutley 0 chance philly doesnt kill San fran.

Id bet everything on that one gameeeeeeeeeee im so sure philly will kill them

[ensign_lee]

Uh...aren't BOTH starting DE's for the Eagles out? That might put a cramp in things...

[zook]

Uh...aren't BOTH starting DE's for the Eagles out? That might put a cramp in things...

It's just Kearse, Darren Howard is fine. Plus they're 8 deep on the defensive line. Johnson has been subbing one four-man unit for another without a noticeable dropoff in pressure. I'm more worried about their CB situation, Sheppard is still out and Hood went out in the Giants game, but it sounds like he'll be back this weekend.

[bigspenda73]

I placed these:

2-team teaser (+100) @ Mansion - 1 unit
IND -1 vs. JAC
CIN +8 vs. PIT

OK, I guess I dont get teasers, you moved each line 6 pts, but you moved them both in your favor right. Indy has less to cover and Cincy is now more of an underdog. Maybe I'm just not getting it, but could you plz explain this. This looks too good to be true

[ensign_lee]

I placed these:

2-team teaser (+100) @ Mansion - 1 unit
IND -1 vs. JAC
CIN +8 vs. PIT

OK, I guess I dont get teasers, you moved each line 6 pts, but you moved them both in your favor right. Indy has less to cover and Cincy is now more of an underdog. Maybe I'm just not getting it, but could you plz explain this. This looks too good to be true

The catch is that BOTH teams have to cover in order for you to cash. If say...Cincinatti wins straight up (in which they obviously cover the teaser), but Indy happens to lose, then you get NO MONEY.

[zook]

I placed these:

2-team teaser (+100) @ Mansion - 1 unit
IND -1 vs. JAC
CIN +8 vs. PIT

OK, I guess I dont get teasers, you moved each line 6 pts, but you moved them both in your favor right. Indy has less to cover and Cincy is now more of an underdog. Maybe I'm just not getting it, but could you plz explain this. This looks too good to be true

For a two-team teaser you move the line 6 points in favor of the team you want to bet on. So in this case I like Indy, so the line moved from -7 to -1, and Cincy, so that line moved from +2 to +8. Indy has to win by 2 or move AND Cincy has to win or lose by less than 8 for my bet to be a winner. I'm relatively new to teasers, mainly because I've always heard in the past that they're a sucker bet. But two things got me to start playing them last week:

1) Ensign_lee pointed out that Mansion is the only place you can get two-team teasers for even money (+100) and that's a good deal. Not to mention that any tie in a teaser at Mansion results in a push. So if Indy wins by a point and Cincy loses by 12, I get my money back. This is unusual I believe.

2) I read some threads on 2+2 about Wong teasers (named after Stanford Wong, gambling guru) in which you tease teams so that the line crosses the most frequent margins of victory, 3 and 7. Apparently teasing these games and paying -110 or better is +EV historically. I don't think my tease is technically a Wong tease, because I'm not crossing the -7 with Indy, I'm just getting off of it, but I really like that game, so I'm not worried

I bet lee can add a few things...

[zook]

I upped my PHI -6 vs. SF bet to 2 units yesterday, but I'm getting more worried about it... two CBs are doubtful (Sheppard & Hood) and Westbrook and LJ Smith are questionable. From what I've read in Philly papers, Westbrook is more likely to miss Sunday than LJ. Honestly, I still like the Iggs at -6, mainly because they've always bounced back strong from losses in the Andy Reid era, and you can be sure they won't be just sitting on a lead in the 4th quarter again. But if you haven't placed this yet, you may want to wait until a) a final injury report comes out, or b) the line comes down.

[ensign_lee]

The Baltimore game is looking more and more like a trap.

a whopping 85+% (EIGHT FIVE!!!!?!?!?) of the bets are on Baltimore, and yet the line does NOT move, and the odds do NOT move.

I'm looking to try and buy some of that back later, and maybe set up a middle opportunity with a half point or something.

But if you haven't placed your bet yet, uh...be wary.

[bigspenda73]

So is anyone here taking the Saints? +3/+115, in an emotional game against a one dimensional offense I believe it should be a close game. Either way, no way am I putting money on Atl laying allllll that juice.

[ensign_lee]

So is anyone here taking the Saints? +3/+115, in an emotional game against a one dimensional offense I believe it should be a close game. Either way, no way am I putting money on Atl laying allllll that juice.

hehe. Yeah. That's why I was psyched to get the +112.

[ensign_lee]

JAC +7.5 vs. IND (-110)
2 units @ Nine

A divisional game, with multiple injuries to the Colts? I'm gonna take Jacksonville here in this spot if they start with a TD lead for the spread at -110.

Indy is good, no doubt. But I think Jacksonville has a shot at winning this game, and should not get blown out to the tune of more than one touchdown.

[bigspenda73]

what about the o/u in the jags game. 42.5? I love the under here, Jags defense is so good against the run and we know the Colts are hurting there this year. On top of that, Jags had trouble putting the ball in the end zone last week.

[zook]

My final plays for this week:

PHI -6 vs. SF (-107) @ Mansion for 2 units (and 1 free bet)
NYJ Moneyline vs. BUF (+243) @ Mansion for 1 unit (and 1 free bet)

2-team teaser (+100) @ Mansion for 1 unit
IND -1 vs. JAC
CIN +8 vs. PIT

If the Jets win this is a big week for me. If the Eagles cover too, LOOK OUT!

[ensign_lee]

Denver Broncos +4 1st half (-110)
2 units @ BetCris

The Patriots have to be up by a touchdown at the half against what I consider a very good Broncos squad in order for this bet to lose. I like it.

If I can get Denver +7.5 for the game, I'll be taking that as well.

[ensign_lee]

Ok.

This Baltimore Ravens bet now officially stinks to high heaven. According to various sources, anywhere from 80% to 97% of the bets at any given sportsbooks are on BALTIMORE.

And what does the line do? Barely edges up to -7...and that took until today.

This looks like a trap, smells like a trap, and 'feels' like a trap. 3% of the betting public is on one side? THREE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

I am going to be hopping off my Baltimore Ravens bet for 25 units. THAT'S RIGHT. I'M HOPPING OFF IT!

But because I got it at a nice number, I will be able to do some fun things with it. The following are my options:

Option A) Currently, I can take CLE +6.5 at (+105) at Pinnacle. Hopefully, later this number will be EVEN higher.

What this basically means is that I have Baltimore -6.5 (+101) and Cleveland +6.5 (+105), which means that if I bet the same amount (25 units), I will come out ahead regardless of the outcome

Option B) I can currently get CLE +7 at lots of books for around -105. With any luck, I'll be able to get CLE +7 for PLUS money, and then I'll be SUPER-HAPPY.

But let's assume that I don't, and the odds stay at around -105. If I bet 15.75 units to win 15 units at that, then that will effectively cancel my bet. However, if Baltimore happens to win by 7, I'll be very, very happy, because the CLE +7 bet will push, and the BAL -6.5 bet will win.

Should anything else happen, I will lose .75 units. So Option B effectively turns my original bet into a completely different one: I would in essence be risking .75 units to win 25 units, with the only winning result being Baltimore winning by 7.

So Option B boils down to whether or not I want to take (+3333) on BAL winning by exactly 7 for a .75 unit bet.

One caveat to that, though, would be that this way, if Cleveland covered the +7 (which I think may happen), then I will break even. woohoo!

Option C) Bodog is currently offering CLE +7.5 (-115) which I could take. If I could get this thing at anything CLOSE to -105 or (dare I dream) +100, I would be super-happy.

With this, I would hop off my Baltimore bet completely, risking 17.25 units to win 15 units on CLE +7.5.

However, if Baltimore won by EXACTLY 7, in this instance, I would be super-uber SUPER HAPPY. If Baltimore won by EXACTLY SEVEN, I would WIN my Baltimore -6.5 bet AND win my Cleveland +7.5 bet.

So Option C is effectively me risking the juice (2.1 units) to win 30.5 units, or getting +1452.

As with Option B, we have one caveat: If Cleveland covers the +7, then I lose nothing with the way I laid out the bets in this example.

~~~
If that was super confusing to you, um...ask questions?

I'll let y'all know what I decide later today.

[ensign_lee]

MIN +4.5 vs. CHI (-115)
2 units at Skybook

An undefeated team getting 4.5 points in its own house in what SHOULD be a low scoring affair? With lots and lots of the public on the other side? (75 or so %)

I'll take that. Bears pretty much have to win by a touchdown now (or at least two field goals), and if they don't, then the Bears don't cover. I think Minnesota can take care of that.

[bigspenda73]

Lee, I appreciate all your advice, but something you say a lot has me wondering. Why do you put so much stock into what the betting public is doing? Is it b/c the lines move b/c of it and thats how you find an edge, or is it b/c you believe their picks to be flawed? Could you explain to me how the trends tend to affect your bets, I'd appreciate it.

Thanks

[ensign_lee]

Lee, I appreciate all your advice, but something you say a lot has me wondering. Why do you put so much stock into what the betting public is doing? Is it b/c the lines move b/c of it and thats how you find an edge, or is it b/c you believe their picks to be flawed? Could you explain to me how the trends tend to affect your bets, I'd appreciate it.

Thanks

Part of it is the line move, and I get an edge that way. The other part of it is "trap games", which I believe the Baltimore bet to be. This is where the sportsbook, rather than taking even action, decides to "take a stand" on a game and take extremely unbalanced action.

Usually, this means that they know something that the rest of the public does not. Take the Denver @ St. Louis game earlier this year as an example: they took fairly unbalanced action on that, and then Denver turned the ball over 5x!!!

Usually, when the public is heavy on one side, that side loses. Which makes sense; after all, if the public was usually correct in these instances, wouldn't Vegas be broke? Vegas doesn't go broke.

Sometimes, I play games for no other reason than simply "fading the public" (fading means playing the opposite of), and it tends to do well. I tend to do this in sports where I have little to no knowledge of the sport, but someone alerts me to the fact that 80-90% of the public is on one side of a game.

[ensign_lee]

Ok: so here's what I did about the Baltimore bet.

I deposited 14.7 units at Bodog, which got me a 10% bonus, leaving me with 16.17 units at Bodog. I stuck the entire thing on CLE +7.5 (-105).

Here are the possible scenarios for that:

Baltimore Covers: I win .45 units
Cleveland Covers: I win .4 units

Baltimore wins by EXACTLY 7: I win 30.55 units!

GO BALTIMORE!

{edited for gramatical clarity}

[ensign_lee]

SEA -3.5 (+106.82)
1 unit at matchbook

At plus money, I like this bet. Seattle is hard to beat at home; plus, I'm testing out a new system on this play. Not too big of a bet, but I think it has a fair chance at winning.

[elipsesjeff]

My over bet covered on the Bears, chopped the bears -3, and took a teaser with Cincinnati +8 and Inianapolis -1, which both covered. So, I'm up 2 units today but dropped 1 yesterday with boise state not covering over hawaii.

[ensign_lee]

For tonight's game, I already have

DEN +4 (1st half) (-110)
2 units @ BetCris

And I am now adding:

DEN Moneyline (+258.7)
2 units at Matchbook

and

DEN +7 (-110)
1 unit at Nine

~~~
I think Denver has at leas ta 50/50 shot at winning this game. The teams are about equal, so the +258 is nice. I wish I could have gotten +7.5 for the spread bet, but oh well. Hopefully, the points won't even matter and Denver will win straight up.

[zook]

Woo-fucking-hoo! Big weekend for me. Went 3-0, including multiple units on the Jets moneyline, which paid big. Thanks for that tip lee!

YTD: 5-1
2-team teasers: 3-0
+12 units

Not sure if I'm playing MNF, have to think about it.

[ensign_lee]

Congrats, Jeff. Congrats, zook!

Good job guys!

Woooh Week 3!

[ensign_lee]

OH YEAH!

I went 8-0 today! And I successfully got out of the trap at Cleveland!

Sunday's Record:
YTD: 8-0-0
Units Won: 20.54

NYJ +6 (-105) WINNER
NYJ M/L (+245) WINNER
JAC +7.5 (-110) WINNER
DEN +4 first half (-110) WINNER
MIN +4.5 (-115) WINNER
SEA -3.5 (+106.8) WINNER
DEN +7 (-110) WINNER
DEN M/L (+258.7) WINNER

~~~

RECORD FREAKING UPDATE:

YTD: 20-26-2
Units won: -7.18

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 10-11-2
+100 to +110: 3-4
+111 to +125: 1-1
+125 to +185: 2-2
+186 to +300: 2-2
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 10-14-1
2 unit plays: 11-8-2
3 unit plays: 0-1
10 unit plays: 0-1

Notes:
1 middle attempt, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

[zook]

Nice work Lee! Up over 20 units today?! That's sick. Let's keep it rolling in Week 4...

[ensign_lee]

Nice work Lee! Up over 20 units today?! That's sick. Let's keep it rolling in Week 4...

Thanks, zook!

Ok: for tonight's game, I had:

ATL -3 (+112)
5 units at Pinnacle

I was staring at NO +5 -105 right now, and well...it looked SO tempting for a middle shot, so here goes!

Other bet:
NO +5 (-105)
2 units at Bodog

So I essentially bought back part of my bet, so now have 3 units riding on Atlanta to cover the -3.

BUT...here comes the fun part:

Here are the following scenarios:

Atlanta wins by 6+ points: I will win 3.5 units

NO wins, or Atlanta wins by less than 3 points: I will lose 3 units

If Atlanta wins by 3: I will win 2 units
If Atlanta wins by 4: I will win 7.6 units
If Atlanta wins by 5: I will win 5.6 units

Why do the last three situation exist? Because if Atlanta wins by 3, I push my ATL -3 bet, but win my NO +5 bet. If Atlanta wins by 5, I push my NO +5 bet, and win my ATL -3 bet.

And if Atlanta wins by 4, I win BOTH BETS!

This helps me to reduce my exposure on the game, which I was looking to do, while simultaneously giving me a shot at a middle.

GO MIDDLE!!!

GO ATLANTA!

[ensign_lee]

Huh...

Well Atlanta got their asses handed to them. Who saw that comin?

Oh well. After the middle attempt, this leaves me with a 3 unit loss on MNF.

Shame, but life is still good!

Record update:

YTD: 20-27-2
Units won: -10.18

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 10-11-2
+100 to +110: 3-4
+111 to +125: 1-2
+125 to +185: 2-2
+186 to +300: 2-2
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 10-14-1
2 unit plays: 11-8-2
3 unit plays: 0-2
10 unit plays: 0-1

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

[elipsesjeff]

I was thinking about NO +5, never pulled the trigger.