Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 7

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 40-40-2
Units won: 52.54

Sunday's Record: 5-7
Units won: 2.1

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-5-1
-101 to -110: 20-18-2
+100 to +110: 7-6
+111 to +125: 1-3
+125 to +185: 5-3
+186 to +300: 4-3
+300 onwards: 1-0

1 unit plays: 15-15-1
2 unit plays: 17-15-2
3 unit plays: 1-3
4 unit plays: 3-3
6 unit plays: 2-1
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1
12 unit plays: 1-0
16 unit plays: 1-0

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

~~~
I noticed I accidentally added 2 units to my record earlier for a bet I didn't post, so I'm subtracting 2 units from my final record

[ensign_lee]

Blah.

I really, really wanna hit up ARI -2.5 (-110) at thegreek, but it seems like I'm cursed there. Money goes in, never comes out.

Pinnacle has ARI -2.5 at (-126), so dammit...

deposit? don't deposit? wah?

I'm staying away from SD -5 at KC for now. SD seems a little too easy.

NE -6 (+102) @ BUF intruiges me, though.

[ensign_lee]

Did make one bet, though.

Texans/Jaguars OVER 41 (+103)
2 units at Pinnacle

Texans can't seem to stop damn near anyone. Meanwhile, our offense (goddamn) can only pass, thereby stopping the clock when we fail and moving the chains when we succeed.

Texan overs have fallen just barely short twice this year, gone WAAAAY the hell over twice, and stayed well under the total once. I think the over is a good shot here, especially with +money.

[ensign_lee]

ARI -3 (+105)
4 units at Pinnacle

Placed this before the MNF game.

After that collapse, I dunno. It's games like that that can destroy franchises. This is especially true when you lose a game like that after losing a game like they did to the Rams earlier.

I think I may scalp this out later.

[ensign_lee]

Will probably have to wait on the best prices for these, but am looking at the following:

KC Moneyline or +5 (leaning towards moneyline) vs. SD
WOW; there are a lot of people on SD. This line seems a little low, don't ya think?

BUF +5 vs. NE
Ouchies...this hurts. I dunno...but the line started off at -5.5 or -6, depending on where you got it. Bets have been coming in on NE. And the lines moves...down to -5?! huh?

TB +5 vs. PHI
Given the number of bets on PHI, this line should have shot up to -6 or -6.5 immediately after coming out at -5.5. But it didn't; it didn't even stay static, it moved down to -5. Plus, maybe, just maybe, I think that Tampa isn't as bad as everyone thinks they are.

Seems like the books have been laying lots of traps lately. Last week, they caught the backers of CIN, CHI, DEN, SEA, PHI . They're not perfect though; they got hurt by backers of SD and NYJ.

Still...it's curious that they're laying all these traps lately. Maybe this week they're 'forcing' things? I dunno. Just my thoughts.

The DEN @ CLE game looks like a trap as well; opened at -6 at Pinny, and then shot down to -4.5. But come on...the Browns? You've gotta be kidding me...

[ensign_lee]

Just got an offer accepted at matchbook. Woohoo!

PIT -2 (+100.9)
2 units at Matchbook

[kling]

KC Moneyline or +5 (leaning towards moneyline) vs. SD
WOW; there are a lot of people on SD. This line seems a little low, don't ya think?

When I was looking over the games yesterday (pre-lines) I felt like I would like KC. I saw the line opened at 5, but on Betus, it's +7 in favor of the Chiefs. This is similar to the Bucs v. Bengals last week. The line was +4.5 at most books, but at Betus it was +7. I jumped on that and the Bucs won outright. I'm beginning to do some research on this game, but I don't think I could ignore KC +7.

[ensign_lee]

Watch your money at BetUS. They are a notorious stiff shop.

Go to sportsbookreview (they are one of the few sites I trust out there) and look them up to see the problems they've had.

Latest one is them just straight up refusing to pay someone his $15,000 balance.

They are outright thieves; their lines are juicy to me as well (their dog lines anyway), but not worth the risk to me. I'd rather sweat the game and not the payout.

[kling]

Yeah, good call... thanks, bro. I am getting my money off of there immediately.

[ensign_lee]

Good luck getting your money out of there kling. I hope you can get it out with no hassles.

~~~

Adding:
IND -9 (+105)
2 units at Pinnacle

Indianapolis is at home after a buy. They should have been able to use the bye to heal up and to get double the gameplanning against Jacksonville. This defense will be rip-roaring and ready to go against Washington, and the offense should finally be able to break out of its shell, and get smart enough to PROPERLY balance the run and pass.

A double-digit home victory sounds plausible to me.



Also, I will be buying back that Arizona -3. Just way too many things going against them.
1) They're trying out their new offensive coordinator, trying to install new systems in 5 days. FIVE DAYS?!?!?!
2) Two backbreaking losses spells doom for any franchise, much less one without much history of success, like the Cardinals
3) Short week of preparation for their opponent because of MNF

Damn...if only they weren't playing the Raiders...ANY other team...

But oh well: I will be betting on Oakland (yuch) when Sunday rolls around.

[ensign_lee]

TB/PHI UNDER 43 (-105)
4 units at BetGameday

[ensign_lee]

Just got an offer accepted at matchbook. Woohoo!

PIT -2 (+100.9)
2 units at Matchbook

I'm gonna go ahead and scalp this bet out. A few too many people on Pittsburgh for my liking.

I originally took PIT -2 at +103 (it says +100.9 because I factored in the 2% commission that matchbook takes out). I'm now going to take ATL +2 +103 as well.

In the end, I gain like .02 units, but hey. .02 > -2 units, right?

So no more PIT -2

[ensign_lee]

Here will be my plays tomorrow. I'm going to wait until righ tbefore I leave for the Texans game to place them, as I thinking I will be able to get better prices for them then.

However, these are the bets I have ALREADY placed:

KC Moneyline (+200)
6 units, bet at BetGameDay and at Matchbook

This line is just...crazy. A lot of public action on this game, all centered on SD. By all accounts, this line should be at -7.5, -8ish. But it's not. It opened at -5 and is now at -4.5. Not a big difference, true, but still. Pinnacle is hanging a -4.5 (-104) out there, just begging people to buy the point to make it -4.5 (-111).

Because of that, I am taking KC Moneyline now, and will be trying to get the best number/price on KC tomorrow. Right now, best price is +6 (-105) at Bodog.

~~~
Now, for bets I will try to get in in the morning:

KC +6 (or best number)
8 units

Reasoning above

TB +6 (or best number)
6 units

Tampa has been playing well lately, and Gradkowski has really impressed me. Look at the Bucs last month of play. Close losses, and one win over a Cincinnatti team that looked to be on top of the AFC.

Eagles defense is a little banged up, and the Eagles still lack a running game. Plus, there's no shortage of action on the Eagles for this game, with 70+% of bets on the Eagles.

I'll take Tampa +6 here. I'm thinking about the moneyline as well, but a little tentative here.

I may also do a two unit parlay with TB +6 and UNDER 43.

BUF +6 (or best number)
8 units

Icky, yucky. Yuck yuck yuck. That's what betting on the Bills does to me.

But I can't ignore the mountain of action on New England. 75+% of bets are on New England, and the line has moved what...from -6 to -5.5? Huh...

This is just blind faith. Icky icky.

CLE +5.5 (or best number)
8 units

Cleveland at home beat Baltimore, remember? And in what looks like it could be a low scoring game, I like the prospect of getting 5.5 points. Plus, only slightly less than 75% of bets are on Denver, with the line going nowhere fast.

Pinnacle is hanging a -4.5 (+101), inviting bettors to buy their way to -4 (-109), which is quite scary to me.

Plus, Denver doesn't have that much experience dealing with 3-4 defenses. Even with the depleted talent of Cleveland, I believe they can keep this game close, if not win it outright.

Charlie Frye and Co. were able to put up quite a fight and nearly won against a Ravens squad even more ighly touted than this Broncos squad.

I'll take a flyer with Cleveland in this spot.

[ensign_lee]

Also, I will be buying back that Arizona -3. Just way too many things going against them.
1) They're trying out their new offensive coordinator, trying to install new systems in 5 days. FIVE DAYS?!?!?!
2) Two backbreaking losses spells doom for any franchise, much less one without much history of success, like the Cardinals
3) Short week of preparation for their opponent because of MNF

Damn...if only they weren't playing the Raiders...ANY other team...

But oh well: I will be betting on Oakland (yuch) when Sunday rolls around.

OAK +3
6 units

OAK Moneyline
4 units

This bet is as much fading the Cardinals as it is on the Raiders. Damn...if it could be ANY other team other than the Raiders...

But alas, it is against the Raiders, so the Raiders I must bet on.

[bigspenda73]

Damn Lee you should've posted the last few earlier, just look at this 3 teamer I took yesterday:

Den
AZ
SD

Shit son, you hate every1 of those, oh well, I guess I have to hope the public knows what it is talking about for once.

[ensign_lee]

Plays are in.

I did an offsetting bet on OAK +3 (+105) to scalp out my ATL +3 (+105) bet from earlier, so my ATL +3 bet is essentially nullified.

I also upped my TB play from 6 units to 8 units. In addition to that, I changed my Oakland bets to 6 units on moneyline and 4 units on the spread.

So, here's a recap:

KC +6 (+100)
8 units at Bodog

KC Moneyline (+200)
6 units @ BetGameDay and Matchbook

TB +6.5 (+100)
8 units at Bodog

TB/PHI Under 43 (-105)
4 units at BetGameDay

BUF +6.5 (-105)
8 units at Bodog

CLE +5.5 (+100)
8 units at Bodog

OAK +3 (+100)
4 units at Bodog

OAK Moneyline (+147)
6 units at Pinnacle

IND -9 (+105)
2 units at Pinnacle

Texans/Jaguars OVER 41 (+103)
2 units at Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Plays are in.

I did an offsetting bet on OAK +3 (+105) to scalp out my ATL +3 (+105) bet from earlier, so my ATL +3 bet is essentially nullified.

I also upped my TB play from 6 units to 8 units. In addition to that, I changed my Oakland bets to 6 units on moneyline and 4 units on the spread.

So, here's a recap:

KC +6 (+100)
8 units at Bodog
WON

KC Moneyline (+200)
6 units @ BetGameDay and Matchbook
WON

TB +6.5 (+100)
8 units at Bodog
WON

TB/PHI Under 43 (-105)
4 units at BetGameDay
LOST

BUF +6.5 (-105)
8 units at Bodog
LOST

CLE +5.5 (+100)
8 units at Bodog
LOST

OAK +3 (+100)
4 units at Bodog
WON

OAK Moneyline (+147)
6 units at Pinnacle
WON

IND -9 (+105)
2 units at Pinnacle
WON

Texans/Jaguars OVER 41 (+103)
2 units at Pinnacle
LOST

My day, recapped.

6-4 on the day. +20 units. WOOHOO!

Blech; icky yucky. Way to suck Bills. Ditto for the browns. Yay blind faith.

Lost my under 43 with two scores in the final three minutes or so, including a 50-something yard pass and a 60-something yard field goal. D'oh.

And I don't reall ymind losing the Texans/Jags OVER, because...THE TEXANS WON!!! WOOOHOOOOOo!!!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 46-44-2
Units won: 72.66

Sunday's Record: 6-4
Units won: 20.12 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-5-1
-101 to -110: 20-20-2
+100 to +110: 11-8
+111 to +125: 1-3
+125 to +185: 6-3
+186 to +300: 5-3
+300 onwards: 1-0

1 unit plays: 15-15-1
2 unit plays: 18-16-2
3 unit plays: 1-3
4 unit plays: 4-4
6 unit plays: 4-1
8 unit plays: 2-2
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1
12 unit plays: 1-0
16 unit plays: 1-0

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.
2 scalps, scalped for a total gain of +.2 units.

[ensign_lee]

Only one bet on the MNF game tonight, and it's a halftime bet.

NYG Team Total OVER 10 (+110)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Eli tends to explode in the fourth quarter. I'm gonna go with that.

This is really more of an action bet, without much more solid reasoning than that Eli tends to explode in the 4th, and I hate the Crygirls.

But uh...yeah.

[swiggidy]

^^ Romo exploded, not Eli good result

[ensign_lee]

I should clarify. By "explode", I meant "do really well".

Although it was fun to watch the Cowboys suck. hahaha.

[elipsesjeff]

Only one bet on the MNF game tonight, and it's a halftime bet.

NYG Team Total OVER 10 (+110)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Eli tends to explode in the fourth quarter. I'm gonna go with that.

This is really more of an action bet, without much more solid reasoning than that Eli tends to explode in the 4th, and I hate the Crygirls.

But uh...yeah.

This is a good bet. I may have to start looking at those as well. It seems like the best bets are made at halftime and you don't necessarily get horrible odds either.

[ensign_lee]

Also, because I seem to have sucked in my explanation of the bet, this was a SECOND HALF TEAM TOTAL.

Didn't mean for it to sound as though I got the Giants OVER 10 for the game at +110.

[ensign_lee]

Record Update:

YTD: 46-44-2
Units won: 73.76

Monday's Record: 1-0
Units won: 1.1

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-5-1
-101 to -110: 20-20-2
+100 to +110: 12-8
+111 to +125: 1-3
+125 to +185: 6-3
+186 to +300: 5-3
+300 onwards: 1-0

1 unit plays: 16-15-1
2 unit plays: 18-16-2
3 unit plays: 1-3
4 unit plays: 4-4
6 unit plays: 4-1
8 unit plays: 2-2
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1
12 unit plays: 1-0
16 unit plays: 1-0

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.
2 scalps, scalped for a total gain of +.2 units.