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For this week, I have a few bets I have yet to place, but that I will be waiting for the best line or price on tomorrow:
HOU moneyline (+143 or best price tomorrow)
2 units (best line price currently at Pinnacle)
Texans are better than the Titans. There aren't that many teams you can just flat out say that about, but it is true of the Titans.
Vince Young's best career passing day was still sub 175 yards (and that was in his one victory). Now, the Texans defense IS in shambles, but I think that they can at least contain the TEN offense.
Meanwhile, the running game is FINALLY showing signs of life for the Texans. And the passing game? Well, that's been the bright point of the season so far.
I'd make this a bigger play, but I don't want to force anything. Plus, it seems that anytime I play any aspect of a Texans game, I lose. I am 0-5 in bets concerning games that the Texans are in. Let's hope that changes this week. 
DEN -2.5 or -3 (we'll see where the line is at tomorrow)
12 units at well...wherever I can get
Ok: this line was set to attract Indy money. No doubt about it. Almost 70% of the public are on Indy. The line opened at -2 or -2.5, Denver, depending on where you got it. A whole lot of action was taken on Indy...and the line moves...UP?!?! WAH? Almost everywhere you look now, the Denver line is at -3. WTF?
So, let's take a closer look at this game. Indy destroyed a Washington team last week that well...has been subpar at best. They've won lots of their games, but not by the same awe-inspiring amounts that they did last year. They've been trying to break in their rookie RB to get him to carry the load more, and in doing so, have a really wierd stat: in games where they rushed the ball more, they always just barely win, which would seem to be counterintuitive, but yeah.
Meanwhile, Denver's team has also not lived up to billed expectations. Well, at least one half hasn't: the offense has failed to generate points in teh quantities it used to. It can't be a coincidence that this coincides with Gary Kubiak's departure to become head coach of the Houston Texans.
Their defense, though: damn.
Plus, you can't forget this is being played at Mile High, where Home Field is DEFINITELY an advantage. Peyton, despite his heroics last week, can't have been 100% this week at practice after that hit he took. I think people are overlooking that a bit.
You can live off the adrenaline for the rest of hte game, but later that week...owch.
Evenly matched teams, and I'm taking the home team. I'll be in the trenches with the books again this week, opposite main public action.
DAL +6 (or best line/price)
6 units, best line at Bodog
If you watched last week's MNF game, that game really wasn't as much of a blowout as everyone is making it out to be. Yes: the Dallas Cowboys offensive line blows. Yes: the Carolina Panthers defensive line is awesome.
But...the DAL o-line has kept their QB upright before, and they're all professionals: they should be able to do their part this week. And you KNOW that they've been focusing on pass protection this week in Dallas practices.
WAAAAAY too many people are on the Panthers. Almost 70%, in a primetime game. The Panthers, everybody's media darling, haven't exactly been killing all the teams they've won against, and they're not invinceable. I think 6 points is too many for them to lay here. The original line of -3 would have been about right; heck...-2.5 probably would have been about right.
But hey... what do I know? Well...not much. haha  . But I know that the books have left the line at 5 all week after resetting it after the MNF game. Bodog's line is at 6 only because they 'shade' the lines towards favorites. I'll take 6 points in what I think is a matchup of evenly matched teams.
Only things that concern me in this one are that I don't know how Dallas is going to come out with Romo under center. Otherwise, this would be a bigger play. As it is, I may up it to an 8 unit play later, but we'll see.
I'll be waiting probably until less than half an hour before kickoff to place this bet, as a lot of public money will be coming in late.
ARI +4.5 vs. GB (-110 or best price)
2 units, probably at Skybook
Yes: I know this is the same Arizona team that lost to Oakland. Yes. I know this team is reeling from back to back to back losses. Yes: I know they can't run the ball worth shit.
But...THEY'RE PLAYING GB!!! This is a matchup of two teams that are evenly matched. Neither really has a knockout punch that should put one clearly over the other, especially to the point where one (*cough GB) would have to win pretty much by a TD to cover.
Plus, the public is super-infatuated with fading the Cardinals after their three straight big losses. Ditto with loving the Packers after the Packers destroyed Miami (like the public had hoped)
OAK +10 (-115 currently at Bodog)
2 units, best price currently at Bodog
I should have nabbed this at +10.5 at skybook with my free half point when I could have.
A hurt Big Ben playing will hurt the Steelers more than starting a healthy Charlie Batch, but it doesn't seem like the Steelers are thinking straight. Plus, 10 points?! WTF?!?!
And the ten points are still not keeping the public from hitting up the Steelers at pretty much a 2:1 clip (66+% of the public is on Pittsburgh)
If Oakland scores first, then that means that Pittsburgh will have to score 17 straight just to tie. And this opening scenario could conceivably happen...what...at least 1/3, 1/4 of the time.
If not, well, Pittsburgh's offense isn't exactly the stuff of legends this year. I don't seem them winning by 11+ (which is really like 13+ beacuse 11 and 12 don't come around that often) more than half the time in this game.
Other notes:
I REEEALY want to take NYJ vs. CLE, with Cleveland's offensive coordinator leaving the team this week. Teams that fire coaches out of desperation are not usually teams to play on. But wha? 70+% of the pubic is on NYJ? Aww...dammit. I may have to change my play to CLE...or just lay off.
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Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 8
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