Starfleet Selections: Week 3 Preseason

[ensign_lee]

Hey Y'all:

Sorry for the late post. Just traveled fro Hong Kong back to Texas.

One play for tonight:

Carolina -3.5 (-115) @ Skybook for 1 unit. Yay free half point.

[ensign_lee]

Record Update:
YTD Record: 20-19-3
Units Won: 1.75 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 4-2
-101 to -110: 6-11
+100 to +110: 4-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 5-3
+186 to +300: 0-1
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 15-13-2
2 unit plays: 2-3
3 unit plays: 1-1

~~~
Wooooh! Winner!

This is my record updated for all my preseason bets, including this last Carolina game.

On to the rest of the card!

[ensign_lee]

Ok, so for today's card:

NYG -3.5 (-113) at Skybook for 1 unit (woohoo free half point!)
DET Moneyline vs. OAK (+147 if I win) at Matchbook for 2 units
PIT/PHI UNDER 25 (-107) at Pinnacle for 1 unit

Also, going to start a parlay for an additional unit. The parlay will start with the Detroit Moneyline vs. Oakland. Any winnings + original stake will carry to tomorrow, where I am looking at including the following:
NO Moneyline vs. IND (currently +165)
WAS Moneyline vs. NE (currently +170)
SF Moneyline vs. DAL (currently +270)

Then, if my balls are big enough, I will put the winnings + original stake on:
HOU Moneyline vs. DEN (currently +190)

I know, I know. It's crazy. But the public is huge on the other side of each and every one of these bets. At a payoff of around 185 to 1, I think this is worth it. I think this exact series of events could happen more than once in 185 times. Right?

[ensign_lee]

Allright. I'm gonna chalk up that Detroit bet as a loss already. Holy crap; they are getting OWNED.

So then that would make today a -.18 unit day. Oh goody. Going 2-1 and losing. I really need to start looking harder at my bigger plays.

Anyway, record update:
Record Update:
YTD Record: 22-20-3
Units Won: 1.57 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 5-2
-101 to -110: 7-11
+100 to +110: 4-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 5-4
+186 to +300: 0-1
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 17-13-2
2 unit plays: 2-4
3 unit plays: 1-1

[ensign_lee]

Ok, so...tomorrow's card:

I got ATL Moneyline +116 earlier in the week (Pinnacle), but thought it would be a lot easier to put up my bets day by day. If this bothers anyone, let me know and I'll put up the bets as I get them down.

Also, I bet STL +3.5 (+100) @ Pinnacle last Sunday. I'm not entirely comfortable with it anymore, but I'm not going to shy away from it. Hopefully, it hits!

For tomorrow, I'm doing a big "fade the public" day. IT is incredible the percentages on three games.

If the skybook line hits 4 for either the Washington game or the Saints game, I'm taking it (and using the free half point to get to +4.5), plus one bet on the moneyline. Nearly 70% of the public is on the other side!!!

Of course, nearly 70% of the public was on Oakland on Friday, so yeah...but still. I'm not going to ignore the fact that that much of the public is on the other side.

Same goes with the San Francisco game against Dallas. If Skybook lets the game get off 7, so that I can use the free half point to make it +8, then I'm hitting that up as well. As for the moneyline, eh........I'm not sure I wanna do that, but I may end up doing it anyway.

For the Browns/Bills game uh...I don't know quite what to do. For most of the season, I was gonna fade these two teams, but well...they're playing EACH OTHER. I might look at the moneyline if I can get +140 or it or so for Cleveland.

Also looking at the Jags/Bucs OVER 34.

Lately, it seems that every line move has gone against me when I bet it early, so I'm going to try to hit up these lines later. When I do, I'll post the odds and the sportsbook.

[ensign_lee]

Well, I guess I should have gotten San Francisco +7.5 at CRIS when I had the chance. Oh well.

So here's my added plays so far for today:
CLE +3.5 vs. BUF (-103) @ Nine for 1 unit
NO Moneyline vs. IND (171.15 if I win) @ Matchbook for 1 unit
WAS Moneyline vs. NE (184.24 if I win) @ Matchbook for 1 unit
SF Moneyline vs. Dallas (270.48 if I win) @ Matchbook for 1 unit

to go along with my original plays of
ATL Moneyline vs. Tennessee (+116) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
STL +3.5 vs. KC (+100) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

If skybook brings their WAS line to +4, so I can use the half point to get to +4.5, I'll take that for an additional unit. Ditto for the Colts/Saints line.

Still looking at the Jags/Bucs OVER 34 for the game as well.

[ensign_lee]

San Diego -3.5 (-108) @ Pinnacle for 3 units
TB/JAC OVER 34 (-107) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

[ensign_lee]

OK! OK! FINE!

So skybook WON'T move the line! FINE!

I'll BUY the points.

WAS +4.5 vs. NE (-114) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit.

[ensign_lee]

Ok.

2nd half wager

Indy/NO UNDER 17 (-125) at BetJamaica for 2.5 units (I accidentally left it "to win" to units instead of "risk")

So yeah...

[ensign_lee]

Wow; the public owned it up today. I never thought I'd lose all THREE of my ML dog plays, with the public at around 70% on the other side. Holy crap...

And way to miss an extra point, STL. blah...

But, what's done is done.

Record update:

YTD Record: 26-26-3
Units Won: -.09 units

Saturday's Record: 4-6-0
Units Won: -1.66

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 5-4
-101 to -110: 10-11
+100 to +110: 4-3-2
+111 to +125: 2-0
+125 to +185: 5-6
+186 to +300: 0-2
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 20-18-2
2 unit plays: 2-5
3 unit plays: 2-1


~~~
Well, at least I'm bring my "normal" bets between -101 and -110 back up. Got owned on dog moneylines today, as well as plays which had extra juice.

Woot...

Will be playing on Houston tomorrow. Moneyline, or spread? I dunno...I guess we'll see. If I can get +200 on the Texans tomorrow, I'll probably throw two units down on that, with one unit on the Texans +4.5 or something (selling points).

[ensign_lee]

Texans +4.5 (-108) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
Texans Moneyline (+186) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
HOU/DEN OVER (+102) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

[ensign_lee]

Adding:
Texans +6 -110 @ Pinnacle
And upgrading the Texans moneyline to two units. Second time around, I have it at +216.

[ensign_lee]

Blah...

Broncos went for it on fourth and 1? Boooooh.

Ok fine.

So Texans +4 and +6 are winners. Texans Moneyline loser. Over a loser.

Record Update:

YTD Record: 28-28-3
Units Won: -1.25 units

Saturday's Record: 2-2-0
Units won: -1.16 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 5-4
-101 to -110: 12-11
+100 to +110: 4-4-2
+111 to +125: 2-0
+125 to +185: 5-6
+186 to +300: 0-3
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 22-19-2
2 unit plays: 2-6
3 unit plays: 2-1

[ensign_lee]

2 unit plays: 2-6

[ensign_lee]

Ok; one last play to top off this week. Can't get in the black for this week regardless, but hopefully, it'll soften the blow.

GB +5.5 (-110) @ Skybook (yay free half point) for 2 units

Ah, crap. This is a two unit play. It's DOOMED!

[ensign_lee]

Wow. Just start fading my two unit plays. Holy crap.

Record Update:

YTD Record: 28-29-3
Units Won: -3.25 units

Saturday's Record: 0-1-0
Units Won: -2 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 5-4
-101 to -110: 12-11
+100 to +110: 4-4-2
+111 to +125: 2-0
+125 to +185: 5-6
+186 to +300: 0-3
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 22-19-2
2 unit plays: 2-7