Time to hate on the MVC.

[NoSocksLLC]

Wichita State beat a very suspect Seton Hall team today, but I still don't buy this conference at all. I'll be playing against all three MVC teams. Two get me a win.

Best,
EW

[metaxy6]

I'll be playing against all three MVC teams. Two get me a win.

Truth, and good luck.

I like the mids, but don't feel any kneejerk impulse to defend them.
In the absence of inter-conference competition to look at, all this stuff about conference strength is just so much sports talk to me anyways.

I'd rather bet single games on finer-grain info than feelings for/against a conference (or even on depth analysis of relative conference strength) but it seems pretty sensible as a volume play.

If I play G'Town over NI today, it will be because they have dominant bigs that will be too much for NI, because their backcourt should hold up, and because NI is shooting 40% over their last 5.
If I bet WVU over SIU - of wait, I wouldn't - but that's not important...

NC/Cal is a little more interesting, since the middle of the ACC generally pwns the middle of the Pac-10, but even that needs a grain of salt since Stanford just had their way w/ Virgina in the NIT. That's useful info, but the single play would still be based more on the matchup than anything - Cal hasn't seen anyone who does Princeton as well as NC St does and NC St has the frontcourt to match one of Cal's main strengths.

[NoSocksLLC]

I'll be playing against all three MVC teams. Two get me a win.

Truth, and good luck.

I like the mids, but don't feel any kneejerk impulse to defend them.
In the absence of inter-conference competition to look at, all this stuff about conference strength is just so much sports talk to me anyways.

I'd rather bet single games on finer-grain info than feelings for/against a conference (or even on depth analysis of relative conference strength) but it seems pretty sensible as a volume play.

If I play G'Town over NI today, it will be because they have dominant bigs that will be too much for NI, because their backcourt should hold up, and because NI is shooting 40% over their last 5.
If I bet WVU over SIU - of wait, I wouldn't - but that's not important...

NC/Cal is a little more interesting, since the middle of the ACC generally pwns the middle of the Pac-10, but even that needs a grain of salt since Stanford just had their way w/ Virgina in the NIT. That's useful info, but the single play would still be based more on the matchup than anything - Cal hasn't seen anyone who does Princeton as well as NC St does and NC St has the frontcourt to match one of Cal's main strengths.

I don't want anything to do with that NCSt/Cal game. It will be a fun one to watch, but an incredibly hard one to handicap. That's the kind of game I may play in the second half after the general tone and matchups have been established -- could see it going many different directions.

I've backed off my MVC stance slightly, although I may end up playing against all three anyway.

Personally, I think Bradley is pretty much lost. Also, IMO, West Virginia is just vastly superior to Southern IL. The Salukis never tried much out of conference, and that's just a no way for me -- especially against a team that was solid in one of the better conferences in the game.

GT/NoIA is the one that scares me, only because GT hasn't been able to finish in the past weeks, and that begs for disaster in the tourney. I can definitely see the big men start to dominate early in the second half, GT open a lead, and have it evaporate a la UNC-W.

My early plays:
A four-teamer with IA, KS, UNC, and TX on the ML (pays even).
Arkansas -5 over Bucknell.

I think KS and Pitt are strong plays, and would look long and had at UAB. I also like WV and MichSt, but I hope I never have to get that deep in my list to turn the day into a winner.

Basically, my day hinges on an early Iowa win, which puts me in a pretty solid spot to clear solidly for the day. If they win, I'll be playing a defense betting style, coming after Arkansas in the second half if necessary, and watching the Pitt and MichSt games only to potentially make second half plays.

Watch for these bombers (esp against the line):
Oral Roberts
NCSt
UAB

Good luck today!

Best,
EW

[metaxy6]

Oh, I'm not touching NC St either, but if I had to pick a side, they'd be it.

Just for the sake of discussion, since I'm not betting SIU, they may have a better shot than you might think v WVU.
Their non-conf results are pretty good - w/ W's over tourney teams Kent St and Murray St. They can defend like the devil, and they're athletic. They go after the boards, and shouldn't get too much the worse of that battle.
WVU is cold, and has a shallow roster. If Gansey isn't full strength, or can't play the whole game, where do they look? If Pittsnogle gets in foul trouble, as he tends to do, what then?
I can see SIU going on a dangerous run if one or both of the above happens.
The inter-conference results also put a little shine on SIU.
WVU lost to Seton Hall recently. SIU split with the Wichita St team that blew out Seton Hall.
I may end up looking dumb for claiming it, but meh.
I think WVU needs to hit the big shots to win this.

I agree that NI will stick around for awhile but think that they'll wear down late.
Kansas should handle Bradley. That one will be fun to watch. I don't have them going real far in any of my brackets, but Kansas could go deep in this tourney.

Like your early plays a lot, and I like the approach w/ the ML parlays in the early rounds.
GL as always.

[NoSocksLLC]

Oh, I'm not touching NC St either, but if I had to pick a side, they'd be it.

Just for the sake of discussion, since I'm not betting SIU, they may have a better shot than you might think v WVU.
Their non-conf results are pretty good - w/ W's over tourney teams Kent St and Murray St. They can defend like the devil, and they're athletic. They go after the boards, and shouldn't get too much the worse of that battle.
WVU is cold, and has a shallow roster. If Gansey isn't full strength, or can't play the whole game, where do they look? If Pittsnogle gets in foul trouble, as he tends to do, what then?
I can see SIU going on a dangerous run if one or both of the above happens.
The inter-conference results also put a little shine on SIU.
WVU lost to Seton Hall recently. SIU split with the Wichita St team that blew out Seton Hall.
I may end up looking dumb for claiming it, but meh.
I think WVU needs to hit the big shots to win this.

I agree that NI will stick around for awhile but think that they'll wear down late.
Kansas should handle Bradley. That one will be fun to watch. I don't have them going real far in any of my brackets, but Kansas could go deep in this tourney.

Like your early plays a lot, and I like the approach w/ the ML parlays in the early rounds.
GL as always.

Gotta love it when you are getting pounded by a team that hasn't made a 2 point basket in 14 minutes....ALL THREES. Holy shit.

Best,
EW

[metaxy6]

WVU looked pretty good. Hitting shots will do that, but they were crisp overall. No foul trouble + no injury = easy cover.
Nice call, EW.

Tough beat on Iowa. And Arkansas never really got it going.

GTown came through with the last second cover, though...the announcer was like "he didn't really have to shoot there, he could have just run it out" and bettors all over the country were like "yes, he did need to shoot there!"

[Buddy Love5]

Basically, my day hinges on an early Iowa win, which puts me in a pretty solid spot to clear solidly for the day.

I know the game is over, but last night I was looking at the matchups and thought Northwestern St. matched up way to well to ignore that fact. I figured it would be a close game and had no problem with taken the spread (Northwestern St +7), so I took that bet. This morning when I woke up I decided to go ahead and take the moneyline (Northwestern +280). Even though they did hit a lucky shot I came out looking like a genious to all my friends who told me I was an idiot before the game.

However, there isn't alot out there for today's games that turned me on. I thought the first day was a very good chance for people to make money of the long shots (Montana +260) and I bet the first day pretty hard and came out pretty good. The second day though I only bet the Iowa game, and I have a four team teaser that has yet to be decided.

[metaxy6]

Wow. Nice pickin, BuddyLove.

EW - the 2 out of 3 fade MVC worked, we just didn't think it would be Bradley to pull it off. What a game, though.