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Week 1 NFL Selections
Yes, I know it's awhile away, but I have some bets for opening weekend of the regular season that I like.
I may be adding more later, but these are what I have for now:
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. New York Jets +109 @ Pinnacle
New England Patriots -9.5 vs. Buffalo Bills +103 @ Pinnacle
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ Detroit Lions -106 @ Pinnacle
San Diego Chargers -3.5 @ Oakland Raiders +129 @ Pinnacle
New Orleans Saints +3 @ Cleveland Browns -107 (effectively -109.2 if I win) @ Matchbook
Each for one unit.
New England Patriots
I'm feeling a little iffy on the Patriots one with the recent news of injuries and such, but it's already there so I can't really change it. I feel the Bills this year are on the same road as the Texans were last year: replacing a lot of veterans with young players and well...look where my poor Texans ended up last year. I will be fading the Bills for much of th eyear
Tennessee Titans
I chose to back the Titans, despite my hatred for the team, because in week 1, I am leaning more towards going against new head coaches in the league. The Titans are still going to be working with the same systems that have been instilled in the past, while the Jets are going to be breaking in new offensive schemes, as well as switching the defense to a 3-4. At plus money, I think the -3 for the Titans at home against a team with a new head coach.
Seattle Seahawks
This kinda looks like a trap, but I can't resist. The Detroit Lions have a new head coach and seem to be in slight disarray. They're installing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and have Mike Martz as OC. Sooner or later, you can bet something's gonna explode in that clubhouse.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks really haven't lost that much except for their Pro Bowl LG this offseason. Their defense should have matured from last year, and they weren't that bad last year to begin with. They were manhandling weaker teams last year, and I don't see why that should be different this year.
But...something smells funny, so only one unit on this game.
San Diego Chargers
This bet is as much AGAINST the Raiders as it is FOR the Chargers.
Fade the Faders...err...Raiders. It worked last year and I believe it will work again. The raiders pretty much bring the same team back from last year, but with a new head coach. This head coach wasn't allowed to change his assistants, though...wtf? This is essentially the same team as last year, except for a QB change and getting a great safety in the draft. I don't think they can get it done this year, because they haven't been able to in the past.
The Chargers might have a question mark at QB, but I think they can still get the job done. Plus, at super plus money for the -3.5, I think they can get it done. I've heard good things from the Chargers camp regarding Rivers. They bring back a lot of the team from last year, which I believe should have gone to the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints
This, again, is as much a bet AGAINST the Browns as it is for the Saints. You won’t see me betting on the Saints that much this year. In fact, I’m considering fading them because of the weaknesses on their offensive and defensive lines.
But…getting the +3 here is juicy. I think the Saints are at least as talented as the Browns, which isn’t saying a whole lot. The Browns just lost their starting center for the year, their prize free agent acquisition, and their backup center just went down as well: will the backup be ready for the season opener? We’ll see. They also lost another offensive linemen during practice recently. For goodness sake, they moved one of their defensive linemen over to play on the offensive line!!!
Charlie Frye is going to turn into a very ineffective QB if he can’t release the ball quickly…pretty much like David Carr.
I'm going to be looking into the moneyline later here. I think each team has a 50/50 shot at winning this game, so if I can get plus money on the moneyline, I'm all over that for at least another unit. Getting 3 here is really nice here as well, as I think that if the Browns win, it won't be by a lot.
So yeah…go Saints?
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Ok. So that's it so far. More plays will probably come up as the season nears.
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