Week 12 NFL thoughts

[ensign_lee]

ensign_lee's card, week 12

Teaser:
Cincy-2.5
Indy -2
Houston/St. Louis OVER 38
(+160)
15 units. I have quite a bit of confidence in this one.

KC -3 (+105)
1.5 units

KC OVER 51 (+100)
.5 units

Indy -7 (-115)
.5 units

Thinking about parlaying the INdy moneyline with an over of 48, but haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet.


I went heavy on the teaser, because I think that Cincinatti and Indianapolis can win by at least 3. In my mind, this makes the teaser pretty much moneyline plays on both of those two. And the Houston defense is nonexistent, so the Rams should be able to put up between 21-28, maybe even 35 points by themselves. Hopefully, my poor texans will be able to put up some points of their own against an injured Rams defense. We'll see. I really hope this teaser comes in.

The KC/NE game looked to be a shootout earlier when I took the bet. Forecast is thunderstorms now, but hopefully that won't inhibit the Patriots passing attack or the Chief's running game/passing game. I think that home field advantage will ultimately help the Chiefs and will push them to a victory over an very injured Patriots team.

I think Indy will win by double digits on MNF and so I took this bet on matchbook before the line moved. Hopefully, I'll be biting my fingers on Monday Night with my teaser having won its first two games and needing an Indy win by 3 or more while at the same time having the Colts spread at -7.

At any rate, this about sums up my card. Good luck to everyone. Let me know what you think.

[Eric]

Indy -7 (-115)
.5 units

Locking in on the Colts at -7 was probably good, foxsports.com is now showing them at -9.

[ensign_lee]

Indy -7 (-115)
.5 units

Locking in on the Colts at -7 was probably good, foxsports.com is now showing them at -9.

Yeah, I got them early in the week. Lots of places have them at -8.5 or -9. 5dimes has them at -10 I mean, damn...that's respect...or no books wanting bets on the favorite. :P

[ensign_lee]

I've pulled the trigger on the parlay for MNF.

Colts Moneyline
OVER 47

2 units @ about +140 odds.

Go colts. )

Hopefully, come Monday night, the Colts will bring home the bacon for me, completing my teaser and hitting this parlay. Go Colts. AFC South, represent! :P

[DoGGz]

I've pulled the trigger on the parlay for MNF.

Colts Moneyline
OVER 47

2 units @ about +140 odds.

Go colts. )

Hopefully, come Monday night, the Colts will bring home the bacon for me, completing my teaser and hitting this parlay. Go Colts. AFC South, represent! :P

Man, you really think the colts are going to blow away the stealers?

[jukejointroach]

i took the steelers at +8.5 as part of a parlay. let's just hope my other picks make this one worth caring about.

[a500lbgorilla]

I've pulled the trigger on the parlay for MNF.

Colts Moneyline
OVER 47

2 units @ about +140 odds.

Go colts. :o)

Hopefully, come Monday night, the Colts will bring home the bacon for me, completing my teaser and hitting this parlay. Go Colts. AFC South, represent! :P

Man, you really think the colts are going to blow away the stealers?

I do. :(

-'rilla

[ensign_lee]

I've pulled the trigger on the parlay for MNF.

Colts Moneyline
OVER 47

2 units @ about +140 odds.

Go colts. )

Hopefully, come Monday night, the Colts will bring home the bacon for me, completing my teaser and hitting this parlay. Go Colts. AFC South, represent! :P

Man, you really think the colts are going to blow away the stealers?

Yeah, I do. The Steelers defense is predicated entirely on the blitz, something with the Colts offense excels at exploiting. I think that the Colts will punt twice, maybe three times tops.

So that makes the question mark the Steelers offense. Steelers offense is built to run, not to pass. Plus, Big Ben is coming back from surgery. Coming back from surgery is something that's very hard to do. Imagine trying to do that while at least four colts defenders are coming to try and knock you to the ground. All this points to the Steelers not being able to keep up with the Colts offensively.

Now, there are a few things that can foul this up.
1) The steelers offense is able to stay within their game plan while the Steelers defense is able to hold Manning and Co. to 24 points or less. They may be able to keep it close and maybe squeek by if that happens. At the very least, they can cover the spread (though I doubt it's important to THEM if they cover the spread).
2) Somebody injures Peyton Manning. This could suck...period.
3) The Colts, for some reason or other,d on't show up to play, much in the same manner as UT vs A&M this past Friday.

But I think that one of the following scenarios is more probable:
1) The Colts win in a high scoring affair, putting up 30+ points to the Steelers 27+ points
2) The Colts win in a blowout, putting up 30+ points to the Steelers 10+ points

I don't think that the Colts will allow themselves to be dominated by the Steelers.

[ttanaka]

The Colts finished off my perfect 6-0 weekend. Making money betting NFL is fun.

[ensign_lee]

The Colts finished off my perfect 6-0 weekend. Making money betting NFL is fun.

though much harder than it looks. :P

Congrats, ttanaka.