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 Originally Posted by CoccoBill
Being the most powerful economy in the world is the only thing that has made the current $3 trillion foreign debt possible, if that increases to 15 trillion in the next 10 years, how long do you think China is gonna count on getting it's money back at some point? What happens if China, Japan and/or the Saudis decide ok that's it, no more bonds for us? I don't think it's pessimistic to say the situation is slightly risky.
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
15 trillion foreign debt would actually be a problem, as to how much and how it would be combated is debatable. We're not gonna get even close to that though, since most accrued debt is like 3/4 domestic, we'd hafta be rolling like 40 trillion debt plus tons of extra inflation from fiat currency creation in order to be around 15 trillion foreign. And yes, that would be a problem
However, not only would that be a problem for US, but for our creditors as well, and it's debatable as to who gets the worst of it. Both US and our biggest creditor, China, know that the solution is and would be a moderate, gradual process of reducing US and Chinese dependency on each other. That's what it is, a mutual dependency, not the deluded idea that many uninformed have that it's all US dependence upon China. Creditor nations having to stop crediting would largely destroy the investments they already made, and we just simply wont see that.
We would not see a drastic shift in policy unless it was virtually the end of the world. Doing so would just be too terrible of policy for both US and China when compared to a gradual process. We are working on this gradual process right now, and I'm betting that both our governments confidence is high given that those in power actually know what they're doing.
Also, it seems the debate is not about whether or not Obama's budget will get the deficit lower, but that some think that the process of doing so will be too high a cost due to inflation or foreign creditors backing out. Well, the facts just do not support that the percentage of increase over the first couple years of the budget is large enough to cause the kind of catastrophic reactions of major countries. It's an ideological debate among arm-chairs, not a numbers debate among professionals. Besides, if Obama's budget were the big problem that some speculate it is, we would be seeing pressure from US creditors, even if behind the scenes, and this pressure would be very powerful and it would in effect play a role in modifying the budget.
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