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zook's Picks: NFL Playoffs
I missed Week 17 because I went out of town for a few days and didn't get my sportsbetting shit together before I left. Oh well. Great regular season for me, my second best ever:
YTD:
Straight wagers: 25-18
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 2-3
Same game teasers: 1-0
Totals: 1-3
+25.70 units ($771)
Now it's playoff time, which has been great to me in years past. Here are some general guidelines I tend to follow during the playoffs, I'll add more as I think of them.
1) Weight defense and running games heavily, especially in cold weather.
2) Coaching and team playoff experience is crucial. Consider fading QBs making their first postseason start.
3) Don't be scared to bet big favorites. A lot of playoff games are blowouts.
With these in mind, I'm favoring Seattle -3 vs. Dallas for multiple units, the Giants +7 vs. Philly for one unit, New England -9.5 vs. NY and KC M/L (+250) vs. Indy for one unit. The Seattle play is my favorite. Huge homefield advantage, tons of playoff experience in Seattle vs. almost none in Dallas, Cowboys defense has been terrible the last few weeks, Romo making his first postseason start in a hostile environment. I have 2 units on this now, but it could end up being 3 or 4. The Giants pick I'm kind of meh about, but the line just seems to high. The Eagles run defense is suspect and I'm just not convinced the Jeff Garcia fairy tale can continue in the playoffs. I wouldn't take the M/L here, but 7 points is a lot. But I've been underestimating the Eagles for over a month now... I'm a pessimistic Philly sports fan, so keep that in mind before you tail The Pats line is high, but they're just much better than the Jets, imo, and see guideline #3. As for KC, I think they matchup pretty well against Indy and I'll probably put one unit on the M/L and hope Peyton craps the bed in the playoffs yet again.
For now all I have is:
SEA -3 vs. Dal (+104) - 2 units @ Pinny
Thoughts and comments are welcome.
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