zook's Selections: NFL Week 4

[zook]

I'm spinning my picks off from ensign_lee's thread for convenience. A little background... I've been sportsbetting for about 10 years now. Started with a real, Italian mafia-type bookie and then moved online a couple of years later. I've had good seasons and bad seasons, but would honestly estimate I'm up ~$3K over my "career". I mostly bet on the NFL, but have dabbled with the NBA. Last year was the best season I've ever had, up ~$800 on the NFL. Then I discovered poker and decided it was much more +EV, with lower variance, and said I wouldn't do any sportsbetting this year. But, the Mansion bet came along, I cashed big, and left some $ in my Mansion account to play with.

So far this year I'm 5-1 in straight wagers, and 3-0 in 2-team teasers at Mansion, for a total of +12 units. My units are $30, which is 1-2% of my total gambling BR, per sportsbetting BR management guidelines.

Despite my experience sportsbetting, I'm still a noob. For example, I almost never bet teasers until this season, because I had always heard that they're sucker bets. But since ensign_lee pointed out that Mansion has the only even-money two-team teasers around and I started reading 2+2 threads about Wong teasers (when the spread crosses the 3 and the 7) I've been jumping all over them. In fact, the only three plays I have so far this week are Wong teasers:

2-team teasers (+100) @ Mansion - 1 unit each (home in caps)

ATL (-1.5) vs. Ari
OAK (+8.5) vs. Cle

ATL (-1.5) vs. Ari
BAL (+8.5) vs. Sdg

OAK (+8.5) vs. Cle
BAL (+8.5) vs. Sdg

I really like the Baltimore and Atlanta games, especially with the spread 6 points in my favor. Mora will have Atlanta ready to play after last night and I don't have any faith in Leinart making his first start for Arizona on the road. San Diego is going to be tough, but I'll take Baltimore at home, with their defense, getting 8.5 points all day long. Which brings me to the Oakland game... I hate Oakland this year, I think Art Shell and Aaron Brooks are both terrible. BUT, home underdogs are some of the best NFL value around, AND Cleveland's terrible too, AND it's a Wong teaser, so I'm taking it.

I don't know what else I'm going to play this week. If I can't find any straight wagers I like, I'm going to bump the ATL/BAL teaser up to 2 units. These games are tempting, but I haven't decided definitely yet:

Min (+1) vs. BUF
Jac (-2.5) vs. WAS
NYJ (+9) vs. Ind

And if the Eagles line against the Packers dropped below 10, that would be very tempting. I doubt that's going to happen though.

[zook]

FYI, Arizona announced it would be Warner not Leinart and the line dropped to Atlanta -7. I still like Atlanta in this game... Warner's looked terrible. Added another teaser:

2-team teaser (+100) @ Mansion - 1 unit

BAL (+8.5) vs. Sdg
CAR (-1.5) vs. New Orleans

That's probably it for me. The only other temptation at this point is Jac (-2.5) vs. WAS (-105) @ Mansion.

[zook]

Added two straight bets for this weekend:

Sea (+3.5) vs. CHI (-109) @ Mansion - 1 unit

JAX (-3) vs. WAS (+105) @ BetWWTS - 1 unit

I think Seattle is absolutely for real this year. And while Chicago's good too, this is going to be a close game and I'm happy to take the Hawks getting 3.5 here. Jacksonville is good, Washington is not. I could have taken JAX -2.5 at Mansion for -115 or something, but I want to give BetWWTS a little action before I withdraw. I also don't think this game will be close.

These plus 4 teasers gives me a lot of action this weekend. Looking forward to it.

[swiggidy]

Added two straight bets for this weekend:

Sea (+3.5) vs. CHI (-109) @ Mansion - 1 unit

Shaun Alexander is hurt, right? I don't like this

[zook]

Added two straight bets for this weekend:

Sea (+3.5) vs. CHI (-109) @ Mansion - 1 unit

Shaun Alexander is hurt, right? I don't like this

Yeah, he's hurt. He hasn't been doing anything anyway, hasn't rushed for 90 yards and is averaging less than 3 yds/carry. Morris is a serviceable backup, and the four-wideout offense looked unstoppable last week. To me, this all about Hasselbeck vs. Grossman and I love Hasselbeck in that matchup.

[zook]

I forgot to mention that I have a free bet on the Pats moneyline (+205) vs. the Bengals. Not just mentioning it now because they're up 38-13. Seriously

If the frigging Raiders can keep it under 9 my teasers will go undefeated this week. Since they've given up 21 straight points after being up 21-3, I think the chances of that are slim. I can't believe I'm rooting for the Raiders right now. Never again.

[zook]

Oh yeah, Raiders! Way to blow an 18 point lead, but hold on to lose by only 3 My Wong teasers went 4-0 this week, I won the Pats free bet and lost Jacksonville (-3) vs. Washington. Still have the Seahawks (+3.5) tonight.

YTD Record Update:

Straight wagers: 5-2
2-team teasers: 7-0

+17 units

[ensign_lee]

Good job, zook!

[zook]

Wow, Seahawks got demolished. Didn't see that coming. The Bears might be for real? Maybe?

YTD Record Update:

Straight wagers: 5-3
2-team teasers: 7-0

+16 units

[ensign_lee]

Indeed.

I got bit on that bet too. With +4, I Seahawks would be a good bet.

Boy, were we wrong.

[bigspenda73]

zook Im piggybacking your teasers next week, which prolly means bad lucky, so I apologize in advance.

[zook]

zook Im piggybacking your teasers next week, which prolly means bad lucky, so I apologize in advance.

Hahaha. I'll do my best You never know how many Wong teasers there are going to be from week to week, so we'll see. And you know I'm bound to hit a downswing one of these weeks... but I'm gonna keep betting them!

[elipsesjeff]

Wow, Seahawks got demolished. Didn't see that coming. The Bears might be for real? Maybe?

YTD Record Update:

Straight wagers: 5-3
2-team teasers: 7-0

+16 units

haha, I'm 4-1-1 on them this year. I'm betting every week on them for the next three weeks, they have such an easy schedule. If not straight moneylines then with teasers.