$10 NL not sure what to do

How do you interpret the raise? Could be a pair and a draw semi-bluffing or could be the real deal.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($8.25)
Hero ($21.30)
MP1 ($15)
MP2 ($3.70)
MP3 ($5.15)
CO ($3.95)
Button ($9.85)
SB ($5.90)
BB ($16.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q.
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.5, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, 2 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($1.75) T, J, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.7, MP3 folds, Button raises to $3.4, Hero ???

he could have called your raise with anything. low pocket pair or / QQ/TT/JJ/ 99/ QK/ Axs/ AT/ AJ/ AQ/ AK/suited connectors.
You have an open ended straight draw, your pot bet gets raised. If you were gonna call this I would just shove it all in here. This has to be a great flop for you because no Ace or King is out, and you have the OESD.

you don't have to pot the flop. call the raise and see a turn. i'm not sold on pushing. it def. makes it easy for better hands to take your money.

i probably call and evaluate turn. but maybe i push. can't really say.

you're probably not much of a favorite so pushing will make it near a coinflip.

Push. I think calling and seeing a turn is bad.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Push. I think calling and seeing a turn is bad.

say why

Because he's pretty much calling us no matter what on the flop and not always on the turn.

I like a push b/c my guess is you're about even against his range (pokerstove isn't working currently), there's a lot of dead money in the pot, and if you hit your straight on the turn you might not get paid. Good for metagame too.

If anyone has a functioning version of pokerstove, here's the range I put him on: JJ/TT/99/KQo/KQs/JTs/T9s/AhKh/AhQh/QhJh/8h7h

Here ya go Zook...

Hand 0: 70.849% { JJ-99, AhKh, AhQh, KQs, QhJh, JTs, T9s, 8h7h, KQo }
Hand 1: 29.151% { QcQd }

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Here ya go Zook...

Hand 0: 70.849% { JJ-99, AhKh, AhQh, KQs, QhJh, JTs, T9s, 8h7h, KQo }
Hand 1: 29.151% { QcQd }

Thanks for nothing martin, that doesn't make my point!

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Here ya go Zook...

Hand 0: 70.849% { JJ-99, AhKh, AhQh, KQs, QhJh, JTs, T9s, 8h7h, KQo }
Hand 1: 29.151% { QcQd }

Thanks for nothing martin, that doesn't make my point!

lol glad i could be of service!

I push because this is 10NL and he's a minraising donk. We have an overpair with OUTS. A lot of them. In 10NL that means $$$. I'd also push this in 25NL and 50NL and never look back.

Originally Posted by freechus9

I push because this is 10NL and he's a minraising donk.

So what did the pokerstove calculations tell us? I'm afraid I'm not familiar with it. For what it''s worth I pushed and he had KQo and actually beat me with a runner runner flush just to make sure

Originally Posted by Pants_101

So what did the pokerstove calculations tell us? I'm afraid I'm not familiar with it. For what it''s worth I pushed and he had KQo and actually beat me with a runner runner flush just to make sure

I thought you were about even with his range, or at least close enough that the dead money in the pot ($6.85) would make a push +EV. Pokerstove (an indispensable, free program: www.pokerstove.com) lets you type in your cards, a range for your opponent and any board cards and it calculates winning percentages. Martin posted that given the calling range I put your opponent on, you're a 2.43:1 underdog (70.8/29.1). Unfortunately, there's only enough dead money in the pot to give you 2.15:1 pot odds (you're pushing $5.85 and if he calls, the pot will be $12.80). So it's not a +EV push IF this is really his calling range. If his calling range is wider, then it might be a good push. For example, just including 88 in his range makes you only a 1.63:1 dog. Another variable that affects the calculation is if he might fold any of these hands, giving you some fold equity. Normally that's an important consideration and is often the reason it's +EV to push draws, but I'd tend to discount it in this calculation, given he's raised this board and will only have to call $5.85 to win $10.60.

Definitely download pokerstove and play around with it. I use it after almost every session to check whether pushes/calls I made were +EV and how different ranges for my opponents should affect my decisions.

I think this hand looks prettier than it really is.

I am convinced a min/raise of a big bet on a very wet board by a $10NL player is someone who thinks they have teh nutz. I really doubt it's a semi-bluff, unless you have some reason to think that this particular guy is even capable of a semi-bluff raise.

I think the worst he has is KJ or QJ... there are many other hands with 2p plus that you are behind as well, not to mention an oddly played KK/AA.

Oh, I just read results. I cannot fault you for playing overpair+oesd (even with tainted outs), but I could imagine folding here against someone who hasn't shown much aggression history.