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$100nl - Analysis of a Set Hand IP vs Tight Player
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
BB ($18)
UTG ($94.75)
Hero ($164.65)
MP1 ($205)
MP2 ($57.90)
MP3 ($127.90)
CO ($24.60)
Button ($89.85)
SB ($28.70)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4, 4.
UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 6 folds, BB calls $4.
Flop: ($15.50) 4, T, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7, BB folds.
Turn: ($29.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero ...
Villain is 14/4/0.5. The following is my analysis of the action in the hand so far post-flop with the assumption that villain's preflop raise is going to be QQ+, AK most of the time.
On the flop there are 6 possible combinations of AA/KK/QQ each and 16 possible combinations of AK. It's *slightly* more likely then that villain has an overpair.
Suppose that instead of calling we raise the flop. This has a benefit of possibly disguising my hand, but at what price? Assume for a moment that villain has QQ+. Then he could put us on 33, 44, TT, JJ, or QQ possibly, and he might know that he's ahead of that range. On the other hand, he could be a total nit and fold his entire range to any resistance, we don't know. Now assume that he has AK. Any raise is going to get him to fold in the vast majority of cases.
In contrast, calling the flop gets value out of AK when an A or K comes and will sometimes get an overcall from the BB in exchange for possibly giving away our hand.
As played, let's consider raising turn. The difference on the turn is that an AK/AQ hand has picked up four real outs, the twos, and it's somewhat unlikely that he would double barrel considering his aggression factor and the fact that we called both preflop and on the flop. Note that the A K isn't really an important consideration since that's only 1/16th of his possible AK hands. If we're against QQ+, then we really give away our hand as a set and probably won't get anymore value. If we're against AK, then again we won't get anymore value regardless of what villain puts us on. It seems fairly clear that we should just call the turn since villain has less than 10% equity in all cases except A K . The value that we lose in giving villain a free card is less than the value we gain on the river (consider that 10% of the current pot is only $4-5).
I think raising the flop is best since villain isn't very aggressive and we're less likely to get value on later streets if we just call the flop. Thoughts on my analysis?
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