$100nl - AQs oop in 3-bet pot

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($172.10)
UTG ($93.80)
UTG+1 ($109.80)
MP1 ($77.60)
MP2 ($91.90)
MP3 ($59)
CO ($102.85)
Button ($98)
Hero ($104.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP2 calls $9.

Flop: ($26) J, 9, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, MP2 raises to $79.9, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $66

UTG is like 60/4 and limp/folds preflop like crazy. MP2 is like 35/10 and folds to cbet about 75%. I figured I could pick this up preflop and profitably c-bet enough to make this +EV, but now I'm starting to have doubts and wonder if I should just c/f more often.

I'm getting in similar spots with missed overs a bit, both in and out of position, where I 3-bet and they flat call preflop with big pairs and get another bet out of me on the flop before finally shoving over. I kind of think I should stop c-betting so much without a draw unless I know a villain calls 3-bets with a wide range. I feel like I'm putting myself in a spot where I'm just bleeding chips since most of the time if they call the 3-bet they're going to get it all-in.

ya, spots like these just suck.

3betting pre is a must tho. I cbet here a ton, it´s a possible small leak, but we want him to pay off our overpairs next time, no?

a big leak ppl have is c/b'ing too much in 3bet pots. this cud well be a spot to check.

hmm quick analysis - his range hits this a ton. i think yu shud check here when i #u miss.

Board: 9d Jd 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.079% 69.30% 08.78% 34305 4344.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 21.921% 13.15% 08.78% 6507 4344.00 { AsQs }

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

hmm quick analysis - his range hits this a ton. i think yu shud check here when i #u miss.

Board: 9d Jd 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.079% 69.30% 08.78% 34305 4344.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 21.921% 13.15% 08.78% 6507 4344.00 { AsQs }

Does an MP2 like 35/10 raise only 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ from MP after a limp/donk?
Shouldn't you add hands like T9s+, even some Axs+ and maybe 44+? Is that completely out of line for a 35/10?
Sometimes I raise crap from MP2/CO/BU if limp/donk limps EP.

the guy is a 35/10 so he isnt ever isolating weak players IMO. i think its close to his raising %s and that wud prob be v similiar to his calling a 3 bet range

I'm wondering about 3-betting with AQ from the SB vs a middle position raiser. If he's positionally aware at all, that 10% will probably be narrowed down to 7% in MP2, then when he calls the 3-bet I'd have to narrow his range to mostly beating AQs.

I like 3betting here with AQ from a LP raiser, but EP/MP raisers I tend to give more credit until they've convinced me they're not positionally aware.

Too nitty? Maybe I just don't like AQ...

Originally Posted by d0zer

I'm wondering about 3-betting with AQ from the SB vs a middle position raiser. If he's positionally aware at all, that 10% will probably be narrowed down to 7% in MP2, then when he calls the 3-bet I'd have to narrow his range to mostly beating AQs.

I like 3betting here with AQ from a LP raiser, but EP/MP raisers I tend to give more credit until they've convinced me they're not positionally aware.

Too nitty? Maybe I just don't like AQ...

I def agree.

This is a pretty standard 3-bet preflop imo.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

This is a pretty standard 3-bet preflop imo.

I trust you cause you 20-table 100NL, but why is this standard? It seems to me like this is a dodgy situation vs a 37/10 who will most likely call the 3-bet, leaving you playing a big pot OOP vs a villain who's range isn't behind AQ enough to make this +EV.

That's the way my gut analyzes the situation anyway. Set my nitty ass straight.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

This is a pretty standard 3-bet preflop imo.

I trust you cause you 20-table 100NL, but why is this standard? It seems to me like this is a dodgy situation vs a 37/10 who will most likely call the 3-bet, leaving you playing a big pot OOP vs a villain who's range isn't behind AQ enough to make this +EV.

That's the way my gut analyzes the situation anyway. Set my nitty ass straight.

I'm very much about considering information for myself and all of that, so I definitely feel you there.

If you want to do some statistical analysis then here's a place you could start. If he's 37/10 then he's probably raising 10-12% of hands preflop when he's three off of the button. To give you an idea, 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo is 10.7% of hands and we break about even against this range (from PokerStove). If he's limping lower pocket pairs and raising more broadways (which might be the case since he limps so much), then we might end up with something like 77+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, and QJo, which we're like 54-55% against. Either way, it's about break even. You could go deeper into what hands he 4-bets with, the odds he has to call for a set with lower pairs, etc etc, but that's something that I'd rather not make a huge post about so that I don't get too far off track. His fold to cbet % would come into play here as well. I'm not going to look at it here, but you're obviously welcome to.

Another facet of 3-betting is that is easily overlooked is that 3-betting with [non big-pair hands such as] AQ creates a more balanced range and makes us harder to read and play against. If you're only 3-betting something like JJ+, AK, then you become rather predictable. When you start 3-betting with more hands then you gain value if those hands themselves are played in a profitable way. Your big pairs also gain value since your opponents will know you're capable of 3-betting with weaker hands. What this means is that even if 3-betting here with AQ was marginally -EV by itself (I think in this particular spot that it's slightly +EV by itself), it could possibly give my big pairs enough added value to compensate for the lost value.

So if my 3-betting range here is (for random example) 99+, AQ+, AJs and KQs, then he's going to have a harder time deciding what I have than if my 3-betting range is only JJ+, AK. Even though I'm playing a wider range of hands, it's much harder to exploit because it's not as predictable.

As far as being out of position, this does affect my 3-betting range a bit, but with this hand in this spot I don't think it matters very much.

I don't have pokerstove here at work, but my feeling was that AQs is about a coinflip vs his range which is why I questioned the 3-bet given the positional disadvantage tipping the scale in favor of not 3-betting.

I can appreciate what you're saying about being less predictable with your 3-betting range ... but I've given up entirely on table-image moves at lower stakes. The rocks are multi-tabling 5/4 bots who don't pay attention and the loosies just look at their cards.

I'm sure that's not the case at higher limits, but my experience at 25NL is when I'm 3-betting AQ from the SB/BB, it ends up costing me, and any table image I may build ends up wasted on donks who aren't paying attention.

I never feel comfortable playing OOP, I'm sure my inexperience has a lot to do with that, but I'm still not convinced that this is a good play for me. I'm sure your fancy 3-betting from the SB ways work for you crazy sharks up in the higher limits, but I've taken it out of my repertoire for now at least...

i may be way of fhere coz i play at 25nl and am a nob. but i prolly would have called the 3$ and then c/f if i didnt hit or maybe call a cbet if i hit i may lead out or c/r. im assuming taht 100nl is alot diff than my nob microstakes. it just seems like your ace high is not good at this point, i think your either behind pretty bad or hes got alot of outs like a fd + either of his hole cards some like 15 outs. so if you are ahead your coinflipping for a large sum of money. also it seems like when you 3bet preflop that you are giving yourself the chance to get into these sticky situations. but say like best case scenario 60% of time your ahead with your ace high to his 15 outs and drawing to 6 outs the other 40% it jsut seems that on average this is a bad calling situation. as overall your losing your money 60-70% of the time. if this is way off plz lemme know coz i lus to has monies. also if you said this was a standard 3bet for you it seems like you do this quite often thus giving you less crediblity for a premium hand QQ-AA AK?

Originally Posted by d0zer

I don't have pokerstove here at work, but my feeling was that AQs is about a coinflip vs his range which is why I questioned the 3-bet given the positional disadvantage tipping the scale in favor of not 3-betting.

I can appreciate what you're saying about being less predictable with your 3-betting range ... but I've given up entirely on table-image moves at lower stakes. The rocks are multi-tabling 5/4 bots who don't pay attention and the loosies just look at their cards.

I'm sure that's not the case at higher limits, but my experience at 25NL is when I'm 3-betting AQ from the SB/BB, it ends up costing me, and any table image I may build ends up wasted on donks who aren't paying attention.

I never feel comfortable playing OOP, I'm sure my inexperience has a lot to do with that, but I'm still not convinced that this is a good play for me. I'm sure your fancy 3-betting from the SB ways work for you crazy sharks up in the higher limits, but I've taken it out of my repertoire for now at least...

Obviously I wouldn't be 3-betting a 5/4-type player with AQ if he raised in this spot, but if his PFR% was higher I would be 3-betting with a bit wider range. Also realize that my 3-betting range would be different if I was on the button instead of the SB. Completely taking 3-betting with AQ out of the possible options you have in any given scenario is -EV, however, since there will be spots where it is definitely +EV to do so, even at lower stakes.

Originally Posted by reDZill4

i may be way of fhere coz i play at 25nl and am a nob. but i prolly would have called the 3$ and then c/f if i didnt hit or maybe call a cbet if i hit i may lead out or c/r. im assuming taht 100nl is alot diff than my nob microstakes. it just seems like your ace high is not good at this point, i think your either behind pretty bad or hes got alot of outs like a fd + either of his hole cards some like 15 outs. so if you are ahead your coinflipping for a large sum of money. also it seems like when you 3bet preflop that you are giving yourself the chance to get into these sticky situations. but say like best case scenario 60% of time your ahead with your ace high to his 15 outs and drawing to 6 outs the other 40% it jsut seems that on average this is a bad calling situation. as overall your losing your money 60-70% of the time. if this is way off plz lemme know coz i lus to has monies. also if you said this was a standard 3bet for you it seems like you do this quite often thus giving you less crediblity for a premium hand QQ-AA AK?

Your analysis of the flop is pretty spot-on if I understood you correctly. This flop hits his range pretty hard.

The first statement I bolded is something that is somewhat true. Sometimes in poker we make decisions that mean there is a chance that we'll have a difficult decision later on. Often we can play in a way that limits the possibility of having a really tough decision later, and often this is the correct way to go because it makes it less likely for us to make a mistake. However, it's impossible to avoid all seemingly difficult decisions, and often the best play involves risking having to make a difficult decision. Once you start developing more confidence in your game and/or become a more solid player, you have to stop avoiding difficult decisions as much because you lose too much value by playing any other way.

For this particular hand, being out of position with a relatively marginal hand is possible when my 3-bet is called, and this will lead to a situation that seems hard to play. However, when we consider it as a part of the big picture (by big picture, I mean consider it in the context of my range here) then I think there are more important things at work. A lot of the time he's not going to call my 3-bet and I'll pick up the pot right away, and a lot of the time I'm going to have QQ+ here and be a bit ahead of his calling range.

As for the second bolded statement, it's true that by 3-betting more that your opponent will stop automatically assuming that you have a big pair or AK. However, this is not a disadvantage. When he starts realizing we're 3-betting with a wider range, our big pairs/AK increase in value since he will pay them off more often than he would if we had a more narrow range. Also, if we play it right, the "extra" part of our 3-betting range can often be +EV on its own. For an example of this, consider that a lot of people are too tight and don't adjust to an increased 3-betting range. In this example, they will be folding better hands to 3-bets in spots that they shouldn't.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Obviously I wouldn't be 3-betting a 5/4-type player with AQ if he raised in this spot, but if his PFR% was higher I would be 3-betting with a bit wider range. Also realize that my 3-betting range would be different if I was on the button instead of the SB. Completely taking 3-betting with AQ out of the possible options you have in any given scenario is -EV, however, since there will be spots where it is definitely +EV to do so, even at lower stakes.

Agreed. I'm not saying I never 3-bet AQ in the SB at lower stakes...but I'm far more willing to do it if the raise was made in LP, rather than EP/MP. I'd want villain's stats to look closer to 40/20 to 3-bet him here in this spot to ensure that I'm ahead of his range a lot more.

How do you adjust your 3-betting range on the button? I've been being more passively with hands like TT/JJ on the BU facing a raise from a post-flop aggressive villain, hoping to use positional advantage post-flop, where I 3-bet these hands on the SB/BB hoping to take the pot right there and not play OOP. I know a lot of people like to insta 3-bet TT/JJ, regardless of position. What's your BU 3-bet range like?

its definitely a standard move i 3 bet with AQ oop against 10% pfr lp raiser very often in both 100 and 200 nl games. cb really deopends what the texture of the board look like. King high flop is the best candidate for cb if you miss overs.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Agreed. I'm not saying I never 3-bet AQ in the SB at lower stakes...but I'm far more willing to do it if the raise was made in LP, rather than EP/MP. I'd want villain's stats to look closer to 40/20 to 3-bet him here in this spot to ensure that I'm ahead of his range a lot more.

How do you adjust your 3-betting range on the button? I've been being more passively with hands like TT/JJ on the BU facing a raise from a post-flop aggressive villain, hoping to use positional advantage post-flop, where I 3-bet these hands on the SB/BB hoping to take the pot right there and not play OOP. I know a lot of people like to insta 3-bet TT/JJ, regardless of position. What's your BU 3-bet range like?

If I'm on the button and there is a single raise with no callers, I'll generally 3-bet with any hand that I believe is a coinflip to his range. The exception is small and mid pocket pairs sometimes, especially if the timing is right, when I think I can get a good portion of his stack with a set.

I know that you've said that you would rather the guy be something like 40/20, but nobody with any staying power is going to raise that much preflop at full ring. I also know that you've said that you would prefer that he be in late position instead of middle position, but that's totally irrelevant. Instead, you should be concentrating on what his range is from that position based on what you know about him and his stats.