$100nl - Catch set on river versus ubernit

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($97.50)
UTG ($83.35)
Hero ($107.40)
MP1 ($84)
MP2 ($85.10)
CO ($65.40)
Button ($157.90)
SB ($19)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8, 8.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $8, 4 folds, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($17.50) 2, 6, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($17.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: ($17.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 raises to $28, Hero ...

Final Pot: $73.50

This guy is a 4/3 super nit. I have to call $16 to win about $47.50, so I'm getting close to 3:1. At the time, here was my thought process: I decided that he has AA, QQ, or sometimes AQ. There are 6 combinations of AA/QQ and 9 combinations of AQ, but I have to discount the fuck out of AQ for obvious reasons, so if he only plays AQ like this 22% of the time (an overestimation imo) then there are 6 hands that beat me and 2 that I beat, giving me 3:1. By itself this is a fold, but I have a hard time trusting my own judgment in spots like this. Thoughts?

I would just call this 100% of the time. Folding would make me sick and raising is bad.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

I would just call this 100% of the time. Folding would make me sick and raising is bad.

I feel the same about it now.

I´m with Dean, foldings sucks.

Who does check QQQ twice and checks thru turned top set?

Originally Posted by XTR1000

I´m with Dean, foldings sucks.

Who does check QQQ twice and checks thru turned top set?

FWIW he did have QQQ, though it's not really important.

lol i shove river

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

lol i shove river

This is the worst EV play imo.

thers abolsutly no way i can put him on QQQ, AAA here given his play. i consider ive the nutz here.

damn i just lost my whole stack here as well.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

thers abolsutly no way i can put him on QQQ, AAA here given his play. i consider ive the nutz here.

What other hands would he play like this that call a shove?

What's your image? Has he been aggro on the river that you have seen?

With you being UTG +1 and raising, i would think your ubernit would only RR QQ+, probably not a non-paired hand. I would have a hard time letting myself fold, but your gut is leaning towards a fold. Could you even give him 1/9 on RRing that AQs? Sounds like you knew you should have folded...

tbh i dont really know, he has played if so weird. again id feel ive made the nutz so im shoving!!! btw AK cud do this easily.

Originally Posted by REDBRG

What's your image? Has he been aggro on the river that you have seen?

With you being UTG +1 and raising, i would think your ubernit would only RR QQ+, probably not a non-paired hand. I would have a hard time letting myself fold, but your gut is leaning towards a fold. Could you even give him 1/9 on RRing that AQs? Sounds like you knew you should have folded...

The pot odds are too good to fold.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

tbh i dont really know, he has played if so weird. again id feel ive made the nutz so im shoving!!! btw AK cud do this easily.

But I don't think AK calls a shove.

The worst hand he makes that river raise with is AQ and I think QQ is most likely holding. Just call.

Pay the man his monies.

omg folding is just retarded. You have to understand actual probability of hands here. Let's say assuming they are all equally likely to occur, we think he has AA/QQ 90% of the time, and AQ or something random 10%, bot unreasonable right? Well guess what? AQ is twice (maybe a little less?) as likely to occur given this board than AA/QQ, so that changes the actual EV to something like 75% AA/QQ, and 25% something else. Given that thinking he has AA/QQ 90% of the time is probably overshooting it, it makes it an even easier call.

The fact that he played it like this says call. He's lost all value in either case and now you have what I would think is a ton of his range beat by the river. He min bet pre and min raised the river. I call all day, he's losing a ton here.

His play is so retarded, you have to look him up here. He lost so much value on his raise sizes that I wouldn't sweat it.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

omg folding is just retarded. You have to understand actual probability of hands here. Let's say assuming they are all equally likely to occur, we think he has AA/QQ 90% of the time, and AQ or something random 10%, bot unreasonable right? Well guess what? AQ is twice (maybe a little less?) as likely to occur given this board than AA/QQ, so that changes the actual EV to something like 75% AA/QQ, and 25% something else. Given that thinking he has AA/QQ 90% of the time is probably overshooting it, it makes it an even easier call.

Obv we're not folding. Also I stated the probability of each hand and whatnot.

Yeah didn't read your post, you should include like 5-10% of the time he has something completely random including AK.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Pay the man his monies.

lol i just saw this and it got a chuckle

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Yeah didn't read your post, you should include like 5-10% of the time he has something completely random including AK.

This is true.