$100nl KK vs 4-bet push in the blinds

Villain is 12/6.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($54.75)
MP2 ($15.50)
MP3 ($58.50)
CO ($304.60)
Button ($103.75)
Hero ($105.35)
BB ($127.25)
UTG ($137.70)
UTG+1 ($108.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K.
5 folds, CO raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13.5, BB raises to $128.25, CO folds, Hero ...

I'm not folding KK in a blind battle.

Originally Posted by archangel95

I'm not folding KK in a blind battle.

Define blind battle.

SB vs. BB

Even if his range is KK+, AK

You have to call this, and it could be much wider than that. I would heavily weight AK because of his AI raise, even though I assume it was AA because you are unsure of your play and posted the hand.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 11246602 900381.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 12637196 900381.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

There is 17.50 in dead money in the pot which more than makes up for the 47% vs. 53% here. I think QQ is probably in villains range also, and would tilt the scale in your favor, Had you been very active before this?

I dunno, i went through a phase of folding KK preflop, but i kept seeing QQ vs AK and 10 10 vs AQs and random stuff in spots like this so i don't fold anymore. I don't think he shoves here with AA like that, looks a lot like AK to me.

Originally Posted by archangel95

even though I assume it was AA because you are unsure of your play and posted the hand.

Not related to the hand but still important: be careful of these kinds of assumptions, they can mess with your objectivity. Not all posted hands are when someone loses a hand or are unsure of their play.

Given the chance that BB thought you were on a re-steal because of CO's late position raise, this is a super standard call and I usually attempt to back up my points with math or logic or both, so I think I'm pretty objective.

My apologies if you were offended by my observation. Reads don't just apply to the poker table though.

This looks like AK or QQ to me. Instacall.

1st of all this isn't really a blind battle. i fold here cuz i put him on AA-QQ which we are 50/50 against and AA is more likely than QQ. i don't put AK in ppl's range here until i see it for myself or unless they have really fishy stats.

I agree, This isn't really a blind battle

I think folding here is a mistake. They will show up with AK here and worse

I played a hand last night that worked out like this:
very nitty (2% PFR over 452 hands) villain raised from EP I called on the button with 55. Flop comes 2 5 9 Rainbow

We get it all in on the turn and villain flips 99 for the overset.

I thought 452 hands was a pretty good size sample to narrow villains range, not that I am tossing middle set away on a non-scary board but don't weight the 12/6 too heavily in your decision making. 99-AA would equal 2.7% so villains range was 33% higher than I gave him credit for after 452 hands. I think by the end of the session his PFR% was up to 4.5% so apparently he had been running somewhat card dead over the hands that I had played with him.

horrible spot. Opp open pushes his stack, so what we really need to know is whats standard here when opp has AA and then act accordingly.
Instinct is reluctant call, but a call nonetheless.

i would call, but if you want to fold its fine. Its probably close to a break even call.

fwiw i know that folding here is viewed as really weak by many. i also know that if the other players knew that i fold KK here that they could pretty much run me over when i raise preflop. sometimes i do end up calling here, but it is definitely reluctant like miffed said. this kind of spot doesn't happen too often, and i don't mind giving up some ev here by folding. it's also nice to know that i will get KK all-in vs. my AA more often than they will get my KK all-in vs. their AA.

You guys are nits. A reraise allin instead of raising 1/3-1/2 of his stack is more often QQ or AK than bullets. I might fold if CO came along.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

You guys are nits. A reraise allin instead of raising 1/3-1/2 of his stack is more often QQ or AK than bullets. I might fold if CO came along.

i agre, but whats 'standard' from stars nits here? if its to make a pot commiting 4bet or cold call then this is an easy call.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

You guys are nits.

You got this backwards. I would fold and try to keep my sanity.

Heh, if you give me a screenname it might influence my decision.

12/6 for how many hands, significant amount?


It's just so rare, in my experience, that people are pushing over 100BB preflop with AK in a 100NL FR game on Stars at all, not to mention over a raise and 3-bet.

It all boils down to "Do you believe Villain can pull this off with less than AA?" If the answer is yes, call, if not, fold.

Originally Posted by Setzy

Heh, if you give me a screenname it might influence my decision.

12/6 for how many hands, significant amount?


It's just so rare, in my experience, that people are pushing over 100BB preflop with AK in a 100NL FR game on Stars at all, not to mention over a raise and 3-bet.

It all boils down to "Do you believe Villain can pull this off with less than AA?" If the answer is yes, call, if not, fold.

even if he does this with AA-QQ do you feel comfortable flipping a coin for your stack?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Setzy

Heh, if you give me a screenname it might influence my decision.

12/6 for how many hands, significant amount?


It's just so rare, in my experience, that people are pushing over 100BB preflop with AK in a 100NL FR game on Stars at all, not to mention over a raise and 3-bet.

It all boils down to "Do you believe Villain can pull this off with less than AA?" If the answer is yes, call, if not, fold.

even if he does this with AA-QQ do you feel comfortable flipping a coin for your stack?

yeah if its the correct call.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Setzy

Heh, if you give me a screenname it might influence my decision.

12/6 for how many hands, significant amount?


It's just so rare, in my experience, that people are pushing over 100BB preflop with AK in a 100NL FR game on Stars at all, not to mention over a raise and 3-bet.

It all boils down to "Do you believe Villain can pull this off with less than AA?" If the answer is yes, call, if not, fold.

even if he does this with AA-QQ do you feel comfortable flipping a coin for your stack?

yeah if its the correct call.

i don't know how "correct" it is. i don't fault a call or fold. it just seems like a personal preference to me.

AA runs in KK about once every 5000 hands.

Originally Posted by archangel95

AA runs in KK about once every 5000 hands.

This doesn't change the fact that KK is 50% vs. a range of AA-QQ, and most of the time their range is more heavily weighted towards AA.

Flipping a coin is fine with dead money and chips committed.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Flipping a coin is fine with dead money and chips committed.

Like I said I don't think either play is incorrect. If you don't mind flipping then good for you. Personally, I'd rather not.

AK NEVER does this in FR? i havent played a single hand of FR all year, but it gets pushed in pre so much at 6max that its a no brainer call.

Originally Posted by bode

AK NEVER does this in FR? i havent played a single hand of FR all year, but it gets pushed in pre so much at 6max that its a no brainer call.

it's pretty rare in my experience.

Originally Posted by archangel95

AA runs in KK about once every 5000 hands.

You so silly. How many players at the table?

A better way to look at is that for a full table the chance of AA being out if you have KK is around 1 in 20.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Villain is 12/6.

I call if I'm drunk.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by archangel95

AA runs in KK about once every 5000 hands.

This doesn't change the fact that KK is 50% vs. a range of AA-QQ, and most of the time their range is more heavily weighted towards AA.

dead money makes a call +ev dont it?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by archangel95

AA runs in KK about once every 5000 hands.

You so silly. How many players at the table?

A better way to look at is that for a full table the chance of AA being out if you have KK is around 1 in 20.

Approximately what is 20x220?

and I'm pretty sure it is either 23.5 to1 or 22.5 to 1 I can't remember the exact odds.

EDIT: It's 21.8 to 1 so every 4796 hands you will run into AA vs. KK, This was for 10 handed. In a 9 handed game it's 25.6 to 1

1) If you have pocket kings, what are the odds you'll run into pocket aces in a 9 handed game? (And in a 4 handed game?). Is it just the negative parlay of 1:220 to the 8th power (and thus about 1/25)?

Your approximation using 220:1 would actually give 1-(220/221)^8 = 1/28. You really want to use 204:1 since you having kings means there are only 50*49/2 = 1225 remaining hands possible, so the odds of AA are 1225/6 = 204:1. Then 1-(203/204)^8 = 1 in 25.9. The exact answer does turn out to be 1 in 25.5 as you said. The exact answer is more difficult since the player's hands are not independent, that is, certain hands make AA more or less likely. We must also consider the possibility of more than one player having AA. That could be ignored in this problem because it is small, but we cannot ignore it in some of your other problems. This is how the exact answer must be computed:

[ 6*8*P(48,14)/2^7 - C(8,2)*P(46,12)/2^6 ] / [ P(50,16)/2^8 ]
= 1 in 25.5.

The denominator is the number of ways to deal hands to the remaining 8 players. It is the number of ways to deal 16 cards out of 50, and then we divide by 2^8 since we don't care about the order of the 2 cards in each player's hand. The first term in the numerator says there are 6 ways a player can have AA, there are 8 players that can have AA, and there are P(48,17)/2^7 ways to deal the remaining hands to 7 players. This would double count cases where two players get AA, so the second term in the numerator subtracts this off. This is so small it could be ignored in this problem.

For 4 players this becomes:

[ 6*3*P(48,4)/2^2 - C(3,2)*P(46,2)/2^1 ] / [ P(50,6)/2^3 ] = 1 in 68.1


4) AK vs. AA or KK

This problem is similar to 1 except there are now 9 ways that two players could have AA or KK. Note that no more than two players can have these hands, and one must have AA while the other has KK. There are still 6 ways for a player to have AA or KK.

9 handed:

[ 6*8*P(48,14)/2^7 - 9*C(8,2)*P(46,12)/2^6) / [ P(50,16)/2^8 ]
= 1 in 25.6

4 handed:

[ 6*3*P(48,4)/2^2 - 9*C(3,2)*P(46,2)/2^1 ] / [ P(50,6)/2^3 ]
= 1 in 68.1


The other problems are done similarly, but they will be more time consuming because there are more ways that multiple players can have better hands that we must consider. This means more terms to be added together. The worst case is problem 3 where up to 6 players could have a better hand. This would require 6 terms to be computed, however, some of these could be ignored. Basically you compute terms until they become sufficiently small. The second term is subtracted, the 3rd is added, and so on alternately. This is called the inclusion-exclusion principle.

This is Bruce Z's work from 2+2

Fun post.

It actually made me feel alot worse about my KK vs. AA matchups in HU play. Since it's like 130 to 1 or something they have AA when you have KK in that situation.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by archangel95

AA runs in KK about once every 5000 hands.

This doesn't change the fact that KK is 50% vs. a range of AA-QQ, and most of the time their range is more heavily weighted towards AA.

dead money makes a call +ev dont it?

since i think his range is more heavily weighted towards AA i would need more dead money than is already in the pot.