$100nl Top 2 Pair: Good Fold/Bad Fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($113.30)
CO ($196.45)
Button ($233)
SB ($58.50)
BB ($116.90)
UTG ($30.15)
UTG+1 ($159.65)
MP1 ($140.90)
MP2 ($100.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, J.
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) Q, 8, J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, CO raises to $50, BB calls $50, Hero folds.

Sticking it in.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Sticking it in.

Clarify por favor.

Raised pot, top two, handful of draws, a few good made hands we beat, unknowns.

When you play a lot of hands in one stake/game, unknowns are typically not that good.

And if we're coolered, so what. We all get coolered.

I'm just not convinced that I'm ahead enough to call here. CO bets close to 2x the pot, then BB flat calls? Even if BB is always on a draw, I don't think CO plays enough one-pair hands this way to make this profitable.

i cant see opp cold calling tiwth T9o, so only nut straight is T9s. Seems a strect hfor me, so its 88 or draw. I fancy the push.

fold

Fine, fold. Are you that afraid of T9 and that CO is scared of T9?

QJ7cc is the best possible flop for you. Do you also fold there? If so, then stop playing non pairs.

There are a bunch of players who raise draws big and call big raises with draws.

We're shown a set here a lot (and I usually pay to see it).

its a totally standard fold

Let's put the villains on a pretty wide shared range of KK+, JJ, 88, KQs, KTs, QJs, T9s, KQo, KTo, QJo, T9o.

Board: Qc 8c Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.062% 29.75% 03.31% 773244 85988.00 { QdJc }
Hand 1: 33.469% 28.81% 04.65% 748852 120949.00 { above range }
Hand 2: 33.469% 28.81% 04.65% 748852 120949.00 { above range }

Since I doubt KQ stacks off here, let alone cold calls like BB did, I think it's pretty safe to say a fold is good here.

Hand 0: 33.062% 29.75% 03.31% 773244 85988.00 { QdJc }

you'd be making a mistake by folding here because of the dead money in the pot.

Math:
$240.6 + 99.3 *.33062 - 99.3 = +$13.07 everytime you get all in.

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Hand 0: 33.062% 29.75% 03.31% 773244 85988.00 { QdJc }

you'd be making a mistake by folding here because of the dead money in the pot.

a miniscule mistake

also that range is too wide.

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Hand 0: 33.062% 29.75% 03.31% 773244 85988.00 { QdJc }

you'd be making a mistake by folding here because of the dead money in the pot.

a miniscule mistake

also that range is too wide.

I agree with you but I was correcting his error because he wasn't thinking about the dead money which makes this a call.

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Hand 0: 33.062% 29.75% 03.31% 773244 85988.00 { QdJc }

you'd be making a mistake by folding here because of the dead money in the pot.

a miniscule mistake

also that range is too wide.

I agree with you but I was correcting his error because he wasn't thinking about the dead money which makes this a call.

I was considering dead money on the decision but wanted to prove a point with an overly huge range. Nice catch though.