$200nl - How to be a calling station

Villain is like 53/15/2.5.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($207.80)
MP1 ($100.55)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($234.80)
CO ($194.60)
Button ($251)
Hero ($197)
BB ($211)
UTG ($291.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, A.
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 4 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) 4, 9, Q (3 players)
Hero bets $6, BB folds, MP1 calls $6.

Turn: ($18) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $8, Hero calls $8.

River: ($34) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $16, Hero calls $16.

Final Pot: $66

On the river I'm getting slightly better than 3:1 to call and I think that makes the river call +EV. Thoughts?

your hand beat nothing but busted draws.His turn and river bet looked like some top/second pair hands.

Originally Posted by pokerfan

your hand beat nothing but busted draws.His turn and river bet looked like some top/second pair hands.

Yes, but do you think he's going to be good here more than 25% of the time?

assuming that he is not a habitual bluffer, i wouldnt call this river bet. You know, some players really have bet sizing problem and often make mistakes to give opponents drawing odds..

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by pokerfan

your hand beat nothing but busted draws.His turn and river bet looked like some top/second pair hands.

Yes, but do you think he's going to be good here more than 25% of the time?

I'd throw him a bone here.

SHNL player wonders if you're better off c/r river.

heh. I've made this station-like play more than a few times.

Based on my own limited experience at 25NL, I'd wager he's got 3rd pair to the board beat well over half the time.

Originally Posted by d0zer

heh. I've made this station-like play more than a few times.

Based on my own limited experience at 25NL, I'd wager he's got 3rd pair to the board beat well over half the time.

He can have my hand beat over half the time and I'll still profit.

I forgot to add that villain, despite being loose as omfg, was relatively positionally aware. I'm bored so I'm going to think this through a little harder than I did at the table.

I don't think a villain with this high of a PFR% is going to limp AQ or KQ very often in MP1. He could have something like QJ, though.

I think villain would have been more aggressive with a set, especially considering the flush draw is out there. TT/JJ is possible too.

This leaves AQ, KQ, QJ, JJ, TT that beat us, although AQ and KQ seem much less likely.

With this large of a VP$IP, he has to be limping SCs and Axs a good amount of time. This includes some 9x hands, but a lot of missed draw hands as well. So something like T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s comes into consideration, as well as A9s, A8s, A7s and so on. Of these missed draw hands, we beat most.

We lose to AQ, KQ, QJ, JJ, TT, A9s, T9s, 98s.
We win against A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, 87s, 76s, 54s.

If we cut this down to what I think is a more reasonable range to consider our equity against...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
49 games 0.005 secs 9,800 games/sec
Board: 4c 9s Qc 5d 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.694% 32.65% 02.04% 16 1.00 { Ac8c }
Hand 1: 65.306% 63.27% 02.04% 31 1.00 { QQ-TT, AQs, A9s-A4s, KQs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s }

It's pretty damn close, and I think it's likely a 0EV play or slightly +EV.

I don't see how you can add in A2s, A3, A5s, A6s, A7s into villains range. Quite the stretch. Would you call your flop bet with one of those hands? I wouldn't. Against this loose of a player, it's not that bad of a river call.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I don't see how you can add in A2s, A3, A5s, A6s, A7s into villains range. Quite the stretch. Would you call your flop bet with one of those hands? I wouldn't. Against this loose of a player, it's not that bad of a river call.

I'm on crack and was rushing my post because I had to leave. I should have added suit-specific Ax combinations instead.

I think he has a weak Q or 9x almost always. I guess he could have something like 77 or 44 aswell. I dont think you have 25% here but it looks close.

i think the only thing that called you down that you beat is a flush draw. So it just comes down to reads.

Oh, and would anyone raise this river huge as a bluff?

Originally Posted by Pelion

I think he has a weak Q or 9x almost always. I guess he could have something like 77 or 44 aswell. I dont think you have 25% here but it looks close.

I don't think a 53/15/2.5 villain would have 44 or 99 here (I suppose you mean 99 instead of 77). This guy would bet harder or check-raise at some point, no?

However, maybe the best play here is either to fold or call.

Results???

Originally Posted by wesrman

Results???

I very, very rarely post results because it doesn't matter. This is not an exception. Pretend it was 63o or something if you want to feel happy, pretend it was a set if you want to feel sad.

dont forget JT. I tend to lean toward being a station on these pot odds rivers. Not folding on the river is worth something so I'm happy with a 0 EV call.