$200NL - wtf?

UTG+1 21/10/1.2
Shortie 10/6/1.3
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
10 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($245.05)
UTG+1 ($288.55)
UTG+2 ($260.30)
MP1 ($37.00)
MP2 ($65.60)
Hero ($226.35)
CO ($150.00)
BTN ($231.80)
SB ($217.55)
BB ($37.00)
[CO posted $2]

Pre-flop: ($5, 10 players) Hero is MP3
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $8, 2 folds, MP2 calls $8, Hero raises to $33, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $25, MP2 calls $25

Flop: ($104, 3 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $255.55, MP2 goes all-in $32.6, $193.35 to Hero ($193.35)?

I've folded a hand that pretty much went down exactly like this before in a Live game.

go gambol!!!!!! too much money in this pot for you to lay it down. Also, i think you have good odds to call this shove.

easy call because of the pot odds man

Yeah, you gotta go with it.

In the worst case scenario opps hands are TT+/66/KQcc/QJcc and, therefore, with the pot odds (1.67-1 from $322 - $193) you're getting you cannot fold.

Hate to ask this easy question for you guys... but why are knee jerk calling this because of 1.6'ish-1 pot odds? What are the odds for us completing the best hand?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

Assuming 9 clean outs to the nut flush is my assumption - that'd be 35%.

35% chance to hit it, 65% chance to miss it is 13 to 7 odds against, which to me means 1.6 to 1 pot odds are not terribly attractive.

Furthermore, since there's a pat flush possible on this board I see no reason to assume that both the others are playing sets or two pair - a KcXc pat flush isn't completely impossible.

Needless to say I'm a little confused by the call here also. But that said, I have no idea how to read the AI on the flop.

Originally Posted by jimmy44

In the worst case scenario opps hands are TT+/66/KQcc/QJcc and, therefore, with the pot odds (1.67-1 from $322 - $193) you're getting you cannot fold.

PokerStove calls this range 28.4% equity to our Hero - even worse than the 13 to 7 odds I was assuming in my previous post.

How many pot odds do you need???

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.005 secs 7,128,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.758% 40.76% 00.00% 14526 0.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 59.242% 59.24% 00.00% 21114 0.00 { TT+, 66, 22, ATs, ATo }


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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

How many pot odds do you need???

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.005 secs 7,128,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.758% 40.76% 00.00% 14526 0.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 59.242% 59.24% 00.00% 21114 0.00 { TT+, 66, 22, ATs, ATo }


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no chance of a made flush?

I think your average villain is shoving pairish hands- top pair, overpair, and sets- to try to protect against draws. I think shoving a pat flush OOP with 2 behind is more sophisticated, and therefore rarer, play. You've got to give yourself 8-9 outs to the nuts, with up to 6 more if he's got AT or jacks, or maybe top pair with a Qc, Kc, Jc. 9-15 outs = 36%-50+% to take the pot. I take the deal.

I think sets are likely here (which sucks for you) but not likely enough to muck.