$20NL folded QQ on 4-high flop

GAME #632566990: Texas Hold'em NL $0.10/$0.20 2007-08-21 01:14:46
Table Salamonia
Seat 1: Kpeewee ($16.72 in chips)
Seat 3: TDoTfishy ($19.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Nono91 ($16.14 in chips)
Seat 6: BulletHole13 ($23.06 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: fortyseven111 ($15.72 in chips)
fortyseven111: Post SB $0.10
Kpeewee: Post BB $0.20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TDoTfishy [Qs Qh]
TDoTfishy: Raise $0.80
Nono91: Call $0.80
BulletHole13: Raise $2.50
fortyseven111: Fold
Kpeewee: Fold
TDoTfishy: Call $1.70
Nono91: Fold
*** FLOP *** [2c 2h 4c]
TDoTfishy: Check
BulletHole13: Bet $5.00
TDoTfishy: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $10.80 Rake $0.30
BulletHole13: wins $10.80

Only had 5 hands on villain, so no reads. He just seemed to play the hand the same way that I would play KK or AA at this limit. I almost folded this pf and then though that I wanted to see what will happen on the flop. I think my flop check was weak, but I am still learning...

Thoughts?

I almost agreed with you for a minute. This is micro stakes and very often aggression means the goods.

We generally assume we're stacking off here, so we're risking about $15 to win a $25 pot ($10 + rest of his stack). 1:1.67 odds, you need to win 38% of the time.

Board: 2h 4s 4h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.191% 45.19% 00.00% 75162 0.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.809% 54.81% 00.00% 91158 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

Board: 2h 4s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.145% 34.63% 02.51% 39087 2835.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 62.855% 60.34% 02.51% 68103 2835.00 { JJ+ }

So there has to never be any other hand, which you can never assume after 5 hands. If you're really that concerned, raise to $6.50 and fold to his 5bet.

This is all it takes for you to be ahead (let alone getting proper odds)

Board: 2h 4s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.131% 51.77% 01.36% 107625 2835.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 46.869% 45.51% 01.36% 94605 2835.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Bet the flop. If he was re-raising a $5 dollar bet you'd have a far better idea where you stand. You could make it look like a move by check-raising but I don't think he's folding...

Originally Posted by swiggidy

We generally assume we're stacking off here, so we're risking about $15 to win a $25 pot ($10 + rest of his stack). 1:1.67 odds, you need to win 38% of the time.

We are stacking off here but he might not be if he has AK so those odds arent really accurate. Our reverse implied odds probably give us worse equity than we need if his range is AA, KK, AK. I do think plenty of people at 25NL 3bet worse than KK though so we probably have enough equity against JJ, TT type hands aswell to get it in. This is the kind of flop we called preflop for. Now we have trapped a cbet in there aswell so we need to shut our eyes and get it in.... or fold preflop.

Go all-in please. This is the flop you wanted. He'll call with 1010